I should probably update this. The results are in and mildly(I guess) surprising. Fine Gael lost although not as badly as they should have, still coming in a respectable second place although now it leaves them with no TD in the constituency for the first time since the 2002 elections.
Sinn fein came in third, performing about as well as they did in the general election which is a good result as, apart from a handful of areas where they did top the polls, the constituency has never been a big SF voting one.
Fianna fail were absolutely embrassed, coming with less than 5%. Again, never really an FF stronghold but usually stable enough. 5% puts them closer to the minor party/independent lunacy of Aontu and Mannix fucking Flynn than it does any legitimate oireachtas party.
The greens, who's leader came first in that constituency during the general, managed just 7.8% this time around.
Labour were the big winners. Massive 30% in a ridiculous 15 horse race (or like 3 horse race really). And fuck. I feel that labour, like the greens, are seeing a surge from left leaning younger voters taking them at their word who don't remember 12 years ago and the role those two parties and many of their current members played in the financial collapse.
The greens have already shown themselves for what they are, careerist opportunists who have sold out every principle they stood for between 2016 and 2020 and are suffering for it. I'm sure Labour will do the same. In 2016 Labour ran on reducing college fees despite the fact that it had been Labour in literally the exact previous government that raised them. I guess best case scenario this leads to Labour and Sinn Fein becoming tow major parties and leave FF in the dustbin of history.
Can't get images to work but an hour before the polls closed FG tweeted an image of a warning poster saying "Big Sinn Fein Turnout being reported. Don't let Sinn Fein in by staying at home."
And absolutely embarrassed themselves in the process. And raising a lot of questions about their leadership.