Poll: A women has two kids, one is a boy, what are the odds the other is also a boy?

[-Orgasmatron-]

What's the anwser?

 

[cheese_wizington]

Oldest question in the book.

[http://s793.photobucket.com/albums/yy211/thoriscoolio/?action=view&current=untitled-2.jpg]

 

[Naheal]

I pray that this isn't an honest question.

 

[darkless]

The answer is fairly damn obvious.

 

[SideburnsPuppy]

I'm guessing 50%, but if we want to be nerds then we could factor in the rates of Fraternal Twins vs. Identical Twins, then whether the genders of Fraternal twins mostly match or not. Of course, we don't, so let's go with 50%.

 

[DazZ.]

I take it the chances of the babys sex isn't determined by any sort of genetic hand-me-downs, biology isn't my strong point.
Some couples have more of a chance of getting a boy for example? Henry the VIII didn't have this, my mate has about 6 sisters as well, or are these just coincidences?

 

[Manicotti]

The birth of each is an independent event. For simplicity's sake, it's the same as flipping a coin, and we're being asked the chance that we're getting two of a kind. 50% per result for each of 2 results = .5 * .5 = 25% chance that the results will be the same.

 

[MGlBlaze]

I pray that this isn't an honest question.

As do I.

I think it's because so many people label independent events as dependant events and believe that probability as a 'intelligent conscious memory' to it that means one thing has a greater chance of happening if another thing has already happened a bunch of times, like flipping a coin and landing heads 5 times. The chance of getting another heads is still 50% for God's sake.

 

[grimsprice]

So everyone so far missed the point... with the possible exception as the guy showing the book... spoiler that for us please by the way.

33%.

EDIT: damn manticotti... fecking ninja.

 

[heyheysg]

It's variable probablity, but I'm not sure the question is phrased right,

The oldest kid is a boy?

anyway

Boy Boy is in
Boy Girl is in
Girl Girl is out
Girl Boy is in

So it's 33%

 

[Aesir23]

50% since the chances of getting a boy or girl in general is based on whether the egg receives either the X or the Y chromosome.

So unless the second child is a fraternal twin, then that is my answer.

 

[DazZ.]

The birth of each is an independent event. For simplicity's sake, it's the same as flipping a coin, and we're being asked the chance that we're getting two of a kind. 50% per result for each of 2 results = .5 * .5 = 25% chance that the results will be the same.

But we already know one of the results.

 

[TheNumber1Zero]

It can either be a boy or a girl, no distinct advantages.
50/50

On an off-note: Never try to Put an uper-case 5.

 

[Manicotti]

But we already know one of the results.

You could look at it from that angle, and then it would be 50%. But I just looked it as "what is the chance of getting this particular outcome?" that outcome being double boys.

 

[martin's a madman]

Yeah, everybody already said it but it is 50% because it is an event completely unrelated to the other child's birth.

 

[Xero Scythe]

I take it the chances of the babys sex isn't determined by any sort of genetic hand-me-downs, biology isn't my strong point.
Some couples have more of a chance of getting a boy for example? Henry the VIII didn't have this, my mate has about 6 sisters as well, or are these just coincidences?

No, henry had the same chances as anyone else. He was just unlucky.

The birth of each is an independent event. For simplicity's sake, it's the same as flipping a coin, and we're being asked the chance that we're getting two of a kind. 50% per result for each of 2 results = .5 * .5 = 25% chance that the results will be the same.

But we already know one of the results.

actually, that has nothing to do with it. It's simple statistics. Past results have no effect on future outcomes.

Therefore, the chances are 50/50.

 

[DarkLordofDevon]

Actually the answer is 51%, not 50 because the odds for male births are fractionally higher than female due to genetic anticipation of male deaths.

 

[Debatra]

It's variable probablity, but I'm not sure the question is phrased right,

The oldest kid is a boy?

anyway

Boy Boy is in
Boy Girl is in
Girl Girl is out
Girl Boy is in

So it's 33%

And the difference between "Boy Girl" and "Girl Boy" is...

 

[sighh]

It's variable probablity, but I'm not sure the question is phrased right,

The oldest kid is a boy?

anyway

Boy Boy is in
Boy Girl is in
Girl Girl is out
Girl Boy is in

So it's 33%

And the difference between "Boy Girl" and "Girl Boy" is...

If you ever meet a boygirl or a girlboy late at night you'll know...