Poll: How much Piracy would be converted to extra sales if it was killed off?

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ph0b0s123

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Simple question. How much piracy would be turned into purchases, if piracy was stopped completely, tomorrow?

Options: (as anything over a couple of letters for each option makes the post fall over)

A: Hardly any / very little. People would not have brought it if it was not available for free. The industry would see hardly any revenue increase if piracy was stopped. I.e not worth the effort currently being put in to combating it.

B: Some. Industry might have lost some sales. Not the in the 1:1 ratio they believe it to be. Industry might see some revenue increases if piracy was stopped, but the cost of stopping that piracy will probably cancel out the revenue increases.

C: Most of it. The industry would see 50% to 75% more revenues, because people mostly pirate what they would have paid for, if piracy did not exist.

D: All of it. The industry have lost sales in a nearly 1:1 ratio. I.e Pirates would have brought everything they have pirated, if piracy was not an option. Industry would see the revenue increases they say they are losing if piracy was stopped. So the cost of stopping piracy is easily more than than the cost of stopping it.

E: Other

F: Less. Some here have mentioned that abolishing piracy may decrease sales. So here it is as an option. Sorry to those who would have voted for this for it's late inclusion

In all the discussions on piracy I have seen here lately, there is one thing I have not seen discussed. That is, is combating piracy worth the effort it takes? Bear with me....

Content providers logic says that piracy is doing them financial damage. They see that their product has been pirated, say a million times. Their logic is then that these pirated copies have cost them a million sales. That means they lost 10 million dollars (assuming actual product is worth $10) due to piracy.

Their logic is based on the principle that if there were no pirate copies of a product available then all those who pirated, would have purchased instead of pirating. What I'm asking is, is this true? I have never seen type of question asked in any surveys.

I think here is a good place to ask as I believe members of the Escapist forums at least have some experience with piracy. So if someone who has pirated in the past but only things they would never have paid for otherwise, that would equate to the industry getting no revenue increases if piracy was stopped.

The concern is a cost benefit one. The content industry are pushing for more draconian and expensive to enforce laws to stop piracy based on the idea of how much extra money they will make if piracy is stopped. If it turns out that stopping all piracy would result in low increases in revenue for the content industry because they have incorrectly assumed pirates would turn into paying customers if piracy was not an option. Then it may actually turn out that the cost of stopping piracy actually outweighs the extra revenues that would be generated by stopping it.

Now we could have as discussion about morality, but I believe it is a side issue because if piracy resulted in no financial damage the morality angle would not be pressed so much. This is easy to see when, you consider that piracy has existed for a long time, without the same clamor about it we have today. Before the Internet piracy obviously did not have the same perceived impact so mostly a blind eye was tuned to it. It was still as immoral as it is today, but the perceived damage was not as much.

Obviously feel free to expand on any answers below.

Note: I have no idea whether I will get some moderator wrath for this topic. I hope not as I in no way advocate piracy, I just think it is good to try and get an idea of the actual damage it is doing, so I hope people will bear with me.

Edit: Whole topic changed. I wanted this to be a mini survey about how much of what people have pirated, they would have brought, if they could not get it for free. Obviously that might have gotten people into trouble. So it is now about people using their own experiences of piracy to work out how much the industry would gain if people could not pirate anymore. I.e if you would not have brought anything that you have gotten for free, then the industry would not gain much from stopping your piracy.

Edit: Added less sales option.
 

Talshere

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No. Tbh. I have a slime handful of things that I have personally pirated. Mostly the pirate stuff I actually have is music and was given to me by others. Of that, I have bought anything I listen to on a regular basis, generally, if I know the words Ive bought it. I have bought more music BECAUSE of piracy than any other reason. A friend says "you'll like this" give me an album or 2, so I buy the whole discography. This is how I got into Eminem at 12 and is why I own all, ever last one, Linkin Park, Disturbed, Queen, Meatloaf, 3 Doors Down ablum. There are numerous other compolation CD's Ive been given that I have later bought 1 CD with most of my fav song on for example 30 seconds to mars.


As for films, Ive streamed them. I dont DL them. Mostly no.

1 most are shit,
2 they only stay on in the cinima for 2 weeks, this is not enough time to go and see them considering I dont watch TV so dont hear about their release till they've already been out 1 or 2 weeks, at which point they are down to 1 showing at mid day, a time I will never ever ever be able to go and see it become Im a real person with a real life.
3 My nearest cinima is 2 stops away on the train and because they are the only cinima for like 50 miles they charge WAY over the odds. In total a night to the cinima for me involves 5+ people and often takes 5+ hours. Because we are gone so long we buy food. Say £12 for the train return, £12pp for the film (cos its a rip off), £6-£15pp for food. So total cost is looking at £30+ to go and see one film that may or may not be good. As a result, VERY few people in my area actually go to the cinima. To much effort, not enough benifit.

Classic problem of supply. The number of films I WOULD have gone to see over the last 4 year were I given the chance is staggering. As it is, Ive only been to like 3.

EDIT: Also, Many films I have steamed which fall into the catagory of "Pirated" I actually own. Im a student so I move around a lot, carrying round hard copies is a pain in the ass. Last 2 times I watched matrix, is was streamed, last time I watched Boondock Saints, it was streamed. But I OWN both of these films. I just dont have them with me. We live in the 21st century. Having a hard copy on me should not be requisit to watch something I have paid for.
 

ph0b0s123

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Mortai Gravesend said:
Um the problem is that anyone who answers from personal experience of what they did is breaking the rules, I believe, by admitting to piracy. And if they don't then it's only a guess. Though I suppose even if it is personal experience, sometimes people are biased about that...
Yeah, gonna see how this goes. But I believe the line is advocating piracy, rather than admitting you have experience with it. I don't believe this thread crosses that line. I think the point is an important one so, as much as I don't want any mod wrath I hope they will understand where this threads heart is. If we cannot even discuss something on this level, what chance do we have on understanding something as complicated as piracy and it's impacts.

Even if you were to mark 100%, that does not mean you are a pirate right at this moment. I think it is fair to say nearly everyone has been a pirate at some point. It's a bit like the Marijuana thing, everyone has tried it at least once.
 

Owyn_Merrilin

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ph0b0s123 said:
Mortai Gravesend said:
Um the problem is that anyone who answers from personal experience of what they did is breaking the rules, I believe, by admitting to piracy. And if they don't then it's only a guess. Though I suppose even if it is personal experience, sometimes people are biased about that...
Yeah, gonna see how this goes. But I believe the line is advocating piracy, rather than admitting you have experience with it. I don't believe this thread crosses that line. I think the point is an important one so, as much as I don't want any mod wrath I hope they will understand where this threads heart is. If we cannot even discuss something on this level how what chance do we have on understanding something as complicated as piracy and it's impacts.

Even if you were to mark 100%, that does not mean you are a pirate right at this moment.
As written, it's advocating. In practice, they consider any admission advocacy. That's why there were so few threads on the subject before SOPA hit the news; those of us who have been around for a while know that a two sided discussion on piracy is pretty much impossible around here, at least beyond a certain point -- and that point is one we beat to death at least a year and a half ago.
 

Talshere

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Owyn_Merrilin said:
ph0b0s123 said:
Mortai Gravesend said:
Um the problem is that anyone who answers from personal experience of what they did is breaking the rules, I believe, by admitting to piracy. And if they don't then it's only a guess. Though I suppose even if it is personal experience, sometimes people are biased about that...
Yeah, gonna see how this goes. But I believe the line is advocating piracy, rather than admitting you have experience with it. I don't believe this thread crosses that line. I think the point is an important one so, as much as I don't want any mod wrath I hope they will understand where this threads heart is. If we cannot even discuss something on this level how what chance do we have on understanding something as complicated as piracy and it's impacts.

Even if you were to mark 100%, that does not mean you are a pirate right at this moment.
As written, it's advocating. In practice, they consider any admission advocacy. That's why there were so few threads on the subject before SOPA hit the news; those of us who have been around for a while know that a two sided discussion on piracy is pretty much impossible around here, at least beyond a certain point -- and that point is one we beat to death at least a year and a half ago.
Asking why people do something is not advocation. Its an opinion. Perhaps if people were more open about allowing disussion the problem would be better understood and so all of these horifficly designed laws would not piss so many people off and actually help aliviate the problem.
 

ph0b0s123

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Owyn_Merrilin said:
ph0b0s123 said:
Mortai Gravesend said:
Um the problem is that anyone who answers from personal experience of what they did is breaking the rules, I believe, by admitting to piracy. And if they don't then it's only a guess. Though I suppose even if it is personal experience, sometimes people are biased about that...
Yeah, gonna see how this goes. But I believe the line is advocating piracy, rather than admitting you have experience with it. I don't believe this thread crosses that line. I think the point is an important one so, as much as I don't want any mod wrath I hope they will understand where this threads heart is. If we cannot even discuss something on this level how what chance do we have on understanding something as complicated as piracy and it's impacts.

Even if you were to mark 100%, that does not mean you are a pirate right at this moment.
As written, it's advocating. In practice, they consider any admission advocacy. That's why there were so few threads on the subject before SOPA hit the news; those of us who have been around for a while know that a two sided discussion on piracy is pretty much impossible around here, at least beyond a certain point -- and that point is one we beat to death at least a year and a half ago.
Okay, will wait to see if the ban hammer falls then. I just wish they would ask this sort of question in actual surveys. I have been clean up until now with my 1000 odd posts hopefully people will bear that in mind with any punishments. Just hope mods will PM if it is just an issue with the language as I am quite happy to change it so it complies with the rules.
 

Owyn_Merrilin

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Talshere said:
Owyn_Merrilin said:
ph0b0s123 said:
Mortai Gravesend said:
Um the problem is that anyone who answers from personal experience of what they did is breaking the rules, I believe, by admitting to piracy. And if they don't then it's only a guess. Though I suppose even if it is personal experience, sometimes people are biased about that...
Yeah, gonna see how this goes. But I believe the line is advocating piracy, rather than admitting you have experience with it. I don't believe this thread crosses that line. I think the point is an important one so, as much as I don't want any mod wrath I hope they will understand where this threads heart is. If we cannot even discuss something on this level how what chance do we have on understanding something as complicated as piracy and it's impacts.

Even if you were to mark 100%, that does not mean you are a pirate right at this moment.
As written, it's advocating. In practice, they consider any admission advocacy. That's why there were so few threads on the subject before SOPA hit the news; those of us who have been around for a while know that a two sided discussion on piracy is pretty much impossible around here, at least beyond a certain point -- and that point is one we beat to death at least a year and a half ago.
Asking why people do something is not advocation. Its an opinion. Perhaps if people were more open about allowing disussion the problem would be better understood and so all of these horifficly designed laws would not piss so many people off and actually help aliviate the problem.
You realize you're talking to one of the reasons piracy is directly mentioned in the rules in the first place, right? About a year ago, people were getting banned left and right because they were admitting to piracy. The only problem is, the rules didn't mention piracy, just "advocating or linking to illegal or adult material." The Escapist's reasoning on the matter was that piracy was illegal, and that somehow it was impossible to admit to it without advocating it. I and several other users pushed them on the matter until they finally added piracy to the list of examples under that rule. It still doesn't say admitting to it is against the rules, but it is.

ph0b0s123 said:
Owyn_Merrilin said:
ph0b0s123 said:
Mortai Gravesend said:
Um the problem is that anyone who answers from personal experience of what they did is breaking the rules, I believe, by admitting to piracy. And if they don't then it's only a guess. Though I suppose even if it is personal experience, sometimes people are biased about that...
Yeah, gonna see how this goes. But I believe the line is advocating piracy, rather than admitting you have experience with it. I don't believe this thread crosses that line. I think the point is an important one so, as much as I don't want any mod wrath I hope they will understand where this threads heart is. If we cannot even discuss something on this level how what chance do we have on understanding something as complicated as piracy and it's impacts.

Even if you were to mark 100%, that does not mean you are a pirate right at this moment.
As written, it's advocating. In practice, they consider any admission advocacy. That's why there were so few threads on the subject before SOPA hit the news; those of us who have been around for a while know that a two sided discussion on piracy is pretty much impossible around here, at least beyond a certain point -- and that point is one we beat to death at least a year and a half ago.
Okay, will wait to see if the ban hammer falls then. I just wish they would ask this sort of question in actual surveys. I have been clean up until now with my 1000 odd posts hopefully people will bear that in mind with any punishments.
Oh yeah, you shouldn't really get in trouble for the OP, since you didn't take a position on the matter. The worst they're likely to give you is a warning for some BS reason (I got one for making a "potentially upsetting thread" the last time I started one about piracy.) I'm more worried about anybody who posts in this thread; it's either going to fizzle out rather quickly because everyone is afraid to post, or there's going to be a rash of admissions to piracy, at which point they put down the banhammer and just lock the thread.
 

godofallu

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ph0b0s123 said:
B: Some. Industry might have lost a few sales. Not the in the 1:1 ratio they believe it to be.
You do realize that noone in the industry thinks that piracy equates a 1 to 1 ratio right? Saying something like this makes you look, well, really ignorant. Among other things.

Piracy absolutely effects sales. There can be no doubt, but a 1 to 1 ratio is absurd.
 

Talshere

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Owyn_Merrilin said:
Depends what you classify as piracy I guess. Technically many AMV's or just flat music videos on youtube are piracy. But most usic companies dont get people to take them down. Its good advertising. Additionally, if I listen to Linkin Parks Meteora on youtube and the owner DOESNT want it there, am I pirating? I own the album. So do I not have a right to listen to it how and when I please? This comes round into the intrinsic problem of ownership. Do we buy licences that we may only use in strict accordance with T&C's, on our own music players be they PC's or ipods, or do we buy the right to enjoy it whenever we want, however we get it. I suppose technically if Im on the train with loud headphones in and the person next to me can hear the music, not only are they commiting piracy but I am guilty of unautharise public use/display of someone elses owned material.

Thats the first problem. Secondly, There is a grey are where as I mentioned in my post where, given the chance I would have paid to see something, but their unfair archaic form of release means that the cost to me is far more than even the studio intended in both time and money. Is that fair? They could release films online at a cheaper cost than cinimas for a 1 time showing at the same time as the theatrical release. They dont because they persive this as pulling people away from the cinima and so hurting their profits, then wait 5 months for the dvd release. Prince of Persia was classic here. I LOVE the prince of persia games, I plaed my first one when I was a kid on a mac 2d side scroller. I REALLY wanted to see that film. But the time I knew of its release, it had been out 2 weeks. Its only available time to see it was 11:30am or 4:40pm. I had deadline coming up, this is the time people want to work. Buy the time I had a reasonable group of people to go, with no deadline in the way a week later, the film was no longer showing. But I really wanted to see it. So I watch it online. It annyed me really. Quality wasnt great but it was better than not seeing it. If they had released it online for £3-£4 I would have watched that. As it is I think I do now have the DVD lying around somewhere, that if I do I couldnt tell you where. But the fact is, that once you have seen a film once, unless its very good, you wont pay to see it again until a long time later. So 2 years down the line when you see the DVD on sale for £4. The fact that DVD releases cost 5 times more than the cinima doesnt help.

There own buissness model, designed to function in the 50's, is outdated and due to their refusal to adapt people pirate because its convinited.
 

ph0b0s123

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godofallu said:
ph0b0s123 said:
B: Some. Industry might have lost a few sales. Not the in the 1:1 ratio they believe it to be.
You do realize that noone in the industry thinks that piracy equates a 1 to 1 ratio right? Saying something like this makes you look, well, really ignorant. Among other things.

Piracy absolutely effects sales. There can be no doubt, but a 1 to 1 ratio is absurd.
That is not what they argue in court...
"However, the RIAA and Lionsgate Entertainment had both submitted requests for restitution?they had argued that each individual copy of content downloaded through Elite Torrents was the equivalent of a lost sale."
From: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/01/judge-17000-illegal-downloads-dont-equal-17000-lost-sales.ars

Remember this thread is about all piracy, not just of games, otherwise it would be in the gaming discussion section.

Saying 'Piracy absolutely effects sales', is fine the question is by how much. If it is only a by a little is it actually worth all of the anti-piracy stuff we are going through at the moment.
 

DustyDrB

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I think if you say "None" or "All", you're kidding yourself. Of course the answer lies somewhere in between. That should be obvious. I'd say a high-end guess is about 25%. That's still a good chunk of money, though.
 

Talshere

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ph0b0s123 said:
godofallu said:
ph0b0s123 said:
B: Some. Industry might have lost a few sales. Not the in the 1:1 ratio they believe it to be.
You do realize that noone in the industry thinks that piracy equates a 1 to 1 ratio right? Saying something like this makes you look, well, really ignorant. Among other things.

Piracy absolutely effects sales. There can be no doubt, but a 1 to 1 ratio is absurd.
That is not what they argue in court...
"However, the RIAA and Lionsgate Entertainment had both submitted requests for restitution?they had argued that each individual copy of content downloaded through Elite Torrents was the equivalent of a lost sale."
From: http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/01/judge-17000-illegal-downloads-dont-equal-17000-lost-sales.ars

Remember this thread is about all piracy, not just of games, otherwise it would be in the gaming discussion section.

Saying 'Piracy absolutely effects sales', is fine the question is by how much. If it is only a by a little is it actually worth all of the anti-piracy stuff we are going through at the moment.

The problem is noone with the power to carry out that sort of survay in the capacity required will do so, or if they do noone will answer.

Two main reasons:

1:It could and very likely will undermine many of their claims on pushing these bills in the first place
2:It requires someone to be honest about their priacy and trust that the corparation wont then abuse that trust and try and slap them with a fine and/or increae monitoring in your area/sites mentioned etc. Even if legally you are protected and they by law can do none of these things....Whould YOU trust these people not to do it anyway? I sure as hell wouldnt...
 

Owyn_Merrilin

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Talshere said:
Owyn_Merrilin said:
Depends what you classify as piracy I guess. Technically many AMV's or just flat music videos on youtube are piracy. But most usic companies dont get people to take them down. Its good advertising. Additionally, if I listen to Linkin Parks Meteora on youtube and the owner DOESNT want it there, am I pirating? I own the album. So do I not have a right to listen to it how and when I please? This comes round into the intrinsic problem of ownership. Do we buy licences that we may only use in strict accordance with T&C's, on our own music players be they PC's or ipods, or do we buy the right to enjoy it whenever we want, however we get it. I suppose technically if Im on the train with loud headphones in and the person next to me can hear the music, not only are they commiting piracy but I am guilty of unautharise public use/display of someone elses owned material.

Thats the first problem. Secondly, There is a grey are where as I mentioned in my post where, given the chance I would have paid to see something, but their unfair archaic form of release means that the cost to me is far more than even the studio intended in both time and money. Is that fair? They could release films online at a cheaper cost than cinimas for a 1 time showing at the same time as the theatrical release. They dont because they persive this as pulling people away from the cinima and so hurting their profits, then wait 5 months for the dvd release. Prince of Persia was classic here. I LOVE the prince of persia games, I plaed my first one when I was a kid on a mac 2d side scroller. I REALLY wanted to see that film. But the time I knew of its release, it had been out 2 weeks. Its only available time to see it was 11:30am or 4:40pm. I had deadline coming up, this is the time people want to work. Buy the time I had a reasonable group of people to go, with no deadline in the way a week later, the film was no longer showing. But I really wanted to see it. So I watch it online. It annyed me really. Quality wasnt great but it was better than not seeing it. If they had released it online for £3-£4 I would have watched that. As it is I think I do now have the DVD lying around somewhere, that if I do I couldnt tell you where. But the fact is, that once you have seen a film once, unless its very good, you wont pay to see it again until a long time later. So 2 years down the line when you see the DVD on sale for £4. The fact that DVD releases cost 5 times more than the cinima doesnt help.

There own buissness model, designed to function in the 50's, is outdated and due to their refusal to adapt people pirate because its convinited.
You'll get absolutely no arguments from me on any of this. I was just explaining why there's going to be next to nobody admitting to piracy in this thread. The poll is a different story, as you can plainly see.

DustyDrB said:
I think if you say "None" or "All", you're kidding yourself. Of course the answer lies somewhere in between. That should be obvious. I'd say a high-end guess is about 25%. That's still a good chunk of money, though.
Maybe if by "25%" you mean "pirates would buy if whatever they were buying cost 25% of what it currently does." Because that's what it boils down to: what piracy shows is that there is more demand at the price point of "free" than there is at the price point of whatever the heck the entertainment industry charges. As steam shows every time they have a big sale, though, people really will stop pirating if you make the product cheaply and easily available. Steam sales are pretty much the only reason that I /don't/ pirate games; I bought more games during the Christmas sale than I'm likely to get around to before the next one rolls around, and I paid about $20 for the privilege. When I've got that much stuff that cheaply, I don't need to get more for free, because I don't have time to play what I already have legally.
 

ph0b0s123

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DustyDrB said:
I think if you say "None" or "All", you're kidding yourself. Of course the answer lies somewhere in between. That should be obvious. I'd say a high-end guess is about 25%. That's still a good chunk of money, though.
The problem is what is the cost of anti-piracy measures, cause it ain't free. If the cost to the government / ISP's equates to that 25% revenue increase to the content industry, then you have put in some draconian laws / regulation on ISP's and eroded some civil liberties, for effectively no benefit.
 

GrandmaFunk

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I'd guess in the 20-40% range across all media..with games probably being at the higher end and movies/music more towards the lower.
 

Dirty Hipsters

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I have pirated a few games in my time and I can say with absolute honesty that these are not games that I would have bought had piracy not existed. In most cases the piracy comes from a curiosity of the game and nothing more. Usually it's a game that I'm not particularly interested in, and don't want to spend money on, but someone tells me about an interesting element in the game that gets me intrigued enough to play it.

For the vast majority of these games that I've pirated they're also games I never finished, or even played in a significant capacity because my initial impression of them was correct and they were not particularly good. Had I not pirated I probably would have just ended up borrowing them from a friend, or renting them from redbox for $2, and the industry would see none of this money.

If there is a game that I'm interested in, I buy it outright. If I pirate the game and end up enjoying it, I also buy it outright. This is how I was introduced to Borderlands, and I ended up buying the Game of the Year edition later, and am extremely excited for Borderlands 2 later this year, which I already have on preorder.

My guess is that if piracy was completely obliterated that game sales wouldn't go up all that much, maybe 20% at most.
 

Veylon

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People pirate because it's cheap and easy. They'd probably spend about the same amount on gaming as they do now if there was no piracy, only they wouldn't have all the "free" games that piracy provides them. The supposed loss companies take from piracy is largely illusory; that money never existed in the first place.

In my experience, yes, I have pirated games. I used to download NES and SNES games back in the dark ages of the early 00's when they were effectively no longer available. I've picked up old DOS Games and tried to make them run back before DosBox. I have bought a number of these now that GoG and various compilations have appeared on the market. I don't blame anyone who uses piracy to get ahold of something old and/or unavailable; they aren't in a position to be a customer anyway. If a company's complaint against piracy is that you aren't paying them, how can they argue when they've declared they don't want your money?
 

Jodah

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Very little. The main two reasons for piracy are because X product is unavailable in a given region and/or the pirate had no intention of buying it if they could. Yes there are other reasons but these two make up the largest chunk. Neither of them lend well to buying games.


Personally I've only "pirated" in the sense I've used emulators of old school games (SNES and such). This isn't from some sense of moral superiority though. I don't pirate because I like having all my games organized, which Steam helps with. I am also one of the few people that does, to a degree, fear the punishment. Getting charged with piracy crimes would fuck me over for my chosen career so the risk, for me, is too high.