So, Peak Oil. The definition quoted from Wikipedia on 21st May 2011 at 7:47am BST is "the point in time when the global production of oil will reach its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline." Essentially, oil production increases over a period of time in any given nation, but the growth will gradually slow down, stop at a certain level, before finally dropping. This was predicted by the late M. King Hubbert, Quoting Wikipedia again, "M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970."
M. King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked for Shell, so was very knowledgeable about production of oil and gas. So, this is old news. Nobody believed him at the time, and it turned out his theory was right. If it can be applied to America, then can it applied to other countries? It turns out yes, many oil-producing nations show very similar production patterns. I can say confidently that this can also apply to pretty much any other resource we get from the ground, but let's focus on oil.
For those of you still sceptical, here are a few hints. When oil industry says there is still plenty of oil in the ground, they probably are right, but they didn't mention that we probably won't be getting it out, simply because we can't. Big Oil may say they are unable to drill due to political and legal reasons--well that's a flat lie, it was only off-shore drilling that was put on hold in the Gulf of Mexico for merely six months after the BP spill, and if anything, there was less regulation since the 70's when American production peaked.
Also, you remember the old film footage where you simply dug a hole and oil came gushing out of the ground under its own pressure? Well, that is less likely to happen now. We find ourselves drilling in places today we would never consider 20 years ago, because it is too deep, too hard, too dangerous, too remote, and too expensive. Oil production has become more expensive, and we are getting less in return than before, this is a fact. Furthermore, there have been no MAJOR discoveries so far, so anything new we have found is hardly going to make a dent in oil production.
There is no way a sane, logical person can argue their way out of it. I can't cover everything here, but if any of you find anything that you think will put a hole in the theory, tell me, and I will see if I can provide an answer.
M. King Hubbert was a geoscientist who worked for Shell, so was very knowledgeable about production of oil and gas. So, this is old news. Nobody believed him at the time, and it turned out his theory was right. If it can be applied to America, then can it applied to other countries? It turns out yes, many oil-producing nations show very similar production patterns. I can say confidently that this can also apply to pretty much any other resource we get from the ground, but let's focus on oil.
For those of you still sceptical, here are a few hints. When oil industry says there is still plenty of oil in the ground, they probably are right, but they didn't mention that we probably won't be getting it out, simply because we can't. Big Oil may say they are unable to drill due to political and legal reasons--well that's a flat lie, it was only off-shore drilling that was put on hold in the Gulf of Mexico for merely six months after the BP spill, and if anything, there was less regulation since the 70's when American production peaked.
Also, you remember the old film footage where you simply dug a hole and oil came gushing out of the ground under its own pressure? Well, that is less likely to happen now. We find ourselves drilling in places today we would never consider 20 years ago, because it is too deep, too hard, too dangerous, too remote, and too expensive. Oil production has become more expensive, and we are getting less in return than before, this is a fact. Furthermore, there have been no MAJOR discoveries so far, so anything new we have found is hardly going to make a dent in oil production.
There is no way a sane, logical person can argue their way out of it. I can't cover everything here, but if any of you find anything that you think will put a hole in the theory, tell me, and I will see if I can provide an answer.
