Right loses hard in Chile

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crimson5pheonix

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Early reports of the election and referendum in Chile says the neolib center-right party got super shut out of writing the new constitution, and presumably the other elections. Things still early but the big winners of this election seems to be indigenous groups and the Chilean Communist Party.
 
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Seanchaidh

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good news, but i'm not subscribing to the Financial Times for it. ;)
 

tstorm823

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The right wing party still got the most seats, just not enough to unilaterally veto parts of the new constitution. The largest gains were among independent parties, who can and probably will vote differently than existing parties, which will almost certainly give the right-wing party the veto power a lot of the time. The Communists gained all of 4 of 155 seats, unless you decide to count the 17 seats reserved for indigenous representatives as communists, which is a silly thing to do.

Title is inaccurate.
 
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Silvanus

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The right wing party still got the most seats, just not enough to unilaterally veto parts of the new constitution. The largest gains were among independent parties, who can and probably will vote differently than existing parties, which will almost certainly give the right-wing party the veto power a lot of the time. The Communists gained all of 4 of 155 seats, unless you decide to count the 17 seats reserved for indigenous representatives as communists, which is a silly thing to do.

Title is inaccurate.

Hmmm... not quite.

The right-wing 'list' got the most delegates, at 36... but only because left-wing candidates are split over 3 different 'lists' whilst right-wing candidates are under 1. Altogether, socialists, communists, and other left-wingers gathered about ~75 seats, far more than the total of right-wing seats.
 

tstorm823

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Hmmm... not quite.

The right-wing 'list' got the most delegates, at 36... but only because left-wing candidates are split over 3 different 'lists' whilst right-wing candidates are under 1. Altogether, socialists, communists, and other left-wingers gathered about ~75 seats, far more than the total of right-wing seats.
Ok, but how long will it be until the "other left-wingers" and even some of the socialists side with the right-wing groups about even the most minor of points, and are suddenly "center-right at best" to the communists?
 
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Agema

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The right wing party still got the most seats, just not enough to unilaterally veto parts of the new constitution. The largest gains were among independent parties, who can and probably will vote differently than existing parties, which will almost certainly give the right-wing party the veto power a lot of the time. The Communists gained all of 4 of 155 seats, unless you decide to count the 17 seats reserved for indigenous representatives as communists, which is a silly thing to do.

Title is inaccurate.
If you take as a basis that the Chilean right-wing alliance won the presidency (54%) and nearly 40% of the popular vote in parliament at the last general election, 20% in the constitutional convention (together with the context that the Chilean right has lost a significant number of local elections in the last year or two) is consistent with claiming it has taken a beating.

You may be right that it can form alliances with independents to block certain measures - potentially with great results if it marshals them effectively. But I don't know a party on the planet that wants to forge policy by pleading with minor parties and independents rather than deciding by itself.
 
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tstorm823

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If you take as a basis that the Chilean right-wing alliance won the presidency (54%) and nearly 40% of the popular vote in parliament at the last general election, 20% in the constitutional convention (together with the context that the Chilean right has lost a significant number of local elections in the last year or two) is consistent with claiming it has taken a beating.

You may be right that it can form alliances with independents to block certain measures - potentially with great results if it marshals them effectively. But I don't know a party on the planet that wants to forge policy by pleading with minor parties and independents rather than deciding by itself.
You're right, no party wants to give up unilateral powers, but being the biggest fish in in a pond of all small fish is still a huge advantage. The center-right coalition list nearly half their seats, but the center-left lost actually 50% of their seats. Let's look at the numbers.

Losers
- The center right coalition lost 35/72 seats
- The center left coalition lost 26/52
- The Green Ecologist Party list their only seat
- The Humanist Party lost all 5 of their seats
Summary: right-wing groups lost 35 seats, left-wing groups lost 32 seats.

Winners
- 17 seats were reserved for indigenous representation, I don't know if there's any set political alignment to that
- 46 seats went to candidates on independents
- 4 seats were gained by the left-wing coalition, which includes the Communist Party of Chile
End result: 35 fewer explicitly right-wing seats, 28 fewer explicitly left-wing seats, 63 seats added without set loyalties. Put all together, there's not exactly evidence here that political opinions in Chile moved in any direction at all, just a lot more people voting outside of major parties.

How about the communists?
- The Communist Party of Chile actually lost 1 of their 8 seats
- The Revolutionary Workers Party went from 0 seats to 0 seats
- The Chilean Communist Party went from 0 seats to 0 seats
- The Revolutionary Left Movement went from 0 seats to 0 seats
Doesn't look like a big win to me.
 

crimson5pheonix

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There's always room for things to change, but if you want to know how politically active indigenous groups do in Latin America, look at the MAS party in Bolivia and the EZLN in Mexico.

Though if you're wondering about the politics of the independents, they're mostly anti-party leftists.


The right lost hard.

EDIT: Oh, and the mayor of Santiago went from the center-right party to the Communist party.
 
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tstorm823

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...26 of whom ran under the explicitly left-wing List of the People.
They aren't really that explicitly left-wing, at least in the sense that left-wing people want them to be. When their website talks about the importance of market solutions, and deconcentrating national governmental powers back to the regions, and strengthening families, it can sound a bit Republican-y at times. They advocate for socialism in places, but so do mainstream American politicians, who I'm told constantly are all either right-wing or far-right.

And what of the other 37 unaffiliated seats? Are we going to do the dishonest thing and group them all together like the WSJ does when it says "70% of the assembly’s seats went to left-leaning groups and independent delegates, most of whom are anti-party leftists." I hate when different groups are smooshed together like that. It's entirely mathematically possible for that sentence to be precisely true and still have a right-wing majority.
There's always room for things to change, but if you want to know how politically active indigenous groups do in Latin America, look at the MAS party in Bolivia and the EZLN in Mexico.

Though if you're wondering about the politics of the independents, they're mostly anti-party leftists.


The right lost hard.

EDIT: Oh, and the mayor of Santiago went from the center-right party to the Communist party.
You seem to have a bad habit of blindly accepting things written behind paywalls.
 

crimson5pheonix

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They aren't really that explicitly left-wing, at least in the sense that left-wing people want them to be. When their website talks about the importance of market solutions, and deconcentrating national governmental powers back to the regions, and strengthening families, it can sound a bit Republican-y at times. They advocate for socialism in places, but so do mainstream American politicians, who I'm told constantly are all either right-wing or far-right.

And what of the other 37 unaffiliated seats? Are we going to do the dishonest thing and group them all together like the WSJ does when it says "70% of the assembly’s seats went to left-leaning groups and independent delegates, most of whom are anti-party leftists." I hate when different groups are smooshed together like that. It's entirely mathematically possible for that sentence to be precisely true and still have a right-wing majority.

You seem to have a bad habit of blindly accepting things written behind paywalls.
I pay for nothing and they don't come up as paywalls for me since I rarely use them

In any case, everyone who's analyzed the situation from on the ground there in Chile are saying the right got battered. The numbers provided show the right got battered. Understanding even basic principals of Latin American politics will tell you that the right got battered. At what point do you stop and consider that other people who are more educated in this than you might know what they're talking about?
 

tstorm823

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In any case, everyone who's analyzed the situation from on the ground there in Chile are saying the right got battered. The numbers provided show the right got battered. Understanding even basic principals of Latin American politics will tell you that the right got battered. At what point do you stop and consider that other people who are more educated in this than you might know what they're talking about?
It's the year 2021. The election results are available to me. The party websites describing their positions are available to me. There is no situation where it's right to just accept someone is more educated about it because all the information is like 4 clicks away. Do your own research. Primary sources are readily available. Google has a translate button.

Time will do the rest of the work for me, when Chile doesn't end up with an ultra left-wing constitution and you have to go "oh, all those independents were against communism", that's when I win the argument.
 

crimson5pheonix

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It's the year 2021. The election results are available to me. The party websites describing their positions are available to me. There is no situation where it's right to just accept someone is more educated about it because all the information is like 4 clicks away. Do your own research. Primary sources are readily available. Google has a translate button.

Time will do the rest of the work for me, when Chile doesn't end up with an ultra left-wing constitution and you have to go "oh, all those independents were against communism", that's when I win the argument.
Will that be like that time when history condemned Morales and Lula?
 

tstorm823

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Will that be like that time when history condemned Morales and Lula?
Yes. Morales is done, his party is trying to get him to just disappear already while he messes up the few places he still has any influence. He was always self-important and power hungry, and current events should be clearly exposing that for you. MAS is better without him, Bolivia is better without him, and the crisis there was majority his fault personally. So yes.
 

Agema

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You're right, no party wants to give up unilateral powers, but being the biggest fish in in a pond of all small fish is still a huge advantage. The center-right coalition list nearly half their seats, but the center-left lost actually 50% of their seats. Let's look at the numbers.
...
Yeah... no.

Firstly, let's bear in mind that of the 155 seats in 2017, 17 were reserved for indigenous groups, so only 138 were in play. Therefore:

The Chilean right went from 72/155 seats (46%) to just 37/138 (27%). Ouch.

The left (combined) went from 82/155 (53%) to 79/138 (57%). The fact that it was spread across different parties is neither here nor there. And no amount of you trying to make out that La Lista del Pueblo might not be left cuts it for anyone who peruses their website (probably through Google translate for most of us). They are most definitely centre left.

And honestly, given the track record of indigenous Americans in countries across the two continents, I strongly suspect they're going to be distinctly left wing too.

You are right that Chile is surely not going to end up with a far left constitution, but it surely will erase those stupid capitalist measures Pinochet forced into it. The right would be idiots to even try to stop them trying - it could not be clearer that Chile as a whole is deeply unsatisfied with them.
 

crimson5pheonix

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Yes. Morales is done, his party is trying to get him to just disappear already while he messes up the few places he still has any influence. He was always self-important and power hungry, and current events should be clearly exposing that for you. MAS is better without him, Bolivia is better without him, and the crisis there was majority his fault personally. So yes.
That's a far far cry from 'dictator'. Morales is walking free in his country while the people who accused him are in jail, so no, I don't think history is going to condemn him outside of being egotistical.
 

Silvanus

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They aren't really that explicitly left-wing, at least in the sense that left-wing people want them to be. When their website talks about the importance of market solutions, and deconcentrating national governmental powers back to the regions, and strengthening families, it can sound a bit Republican-y at times. They advocate for socialism in places, but so do mainstream American politicians, who I'm told constantly are all either right-wing or far-right.
No right-wing politician in the US has advocated for socialism in any meaningful sense. And I hate to tell you this, but decentralisation and defederalisation aren't inherently right or left-wing positions.

As for the "importance of market solutions", I can only assume you didn't read any further than the thumbnail on their website on economic issues (though even there, they list the "market" alongside the "state"). They refer to "human selfishness the invisible hand [of the market]" as "unacceptable".

The website outlines that they're pacifists; environmentalists; believe in an "active state" in the eradication of poverty; believe "human work", as the creator of wealth, should be the first to benefit from wealth... yeah, they're quite obviously on the left. They state that they intend to represent the 2019~ protestors, who demanded the right-wing President's resignation and demonstrated against social inequality.

And what of the other 37 unaffiliated seats? Are we going to do the dishonest thing and group them all together like the WSJ does when it says "70% of the assembly’s seats went to left-leaning groups and independent delegates, most of whom are anti-party leftists." I hate when different groups are smooshed together like that. It's entirely mathematically possible for that sentence to be precisely true and still have a right-wing majority.
What of them? I didn't count them on either side, because there's plainly not enough information. But yeah, the committed left-wingers massively outnumber the committed right-wingers in the delegation.
 

tstorm823

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Firstly, let's bear in mind that of the 155 seats in 2017, 17 were reserved for indigenous groups, so only 138 were in play.
I do not believe that is true. Best I can tell, that was added for this election.
The Chilean right went from 72/155 seats (46%) to just 37/138 (27%). Ouch.

The left (combined) went from 82/155 (53%) to 79/138 (57%). The fact that it was spread across different parties is neither here nor there. And no amount of you trying to make out that La Lista del Pueblo might not be left cuts it for anyone who peruses their website (probably through Google translate for most of us). They are most definitely centre left.
As a whole, I would agree with you, but they aren't a whole. It's a list of independents with potentially different ideas who formed a loose coalition in order to access the ballots. Lista del Pueblo candidates are more likely left than right, sure, but it's wrong to consider them a uniform voting block like a political party. And it's exceptionally one-sided analysis to declare every one of them left wing, and every other independent candidate as neutral.
That's a far far cry from 'dictator'. Morales is walking free in his country while the people who accused him are in jail, so no, I don't think history is going to condemn him outside of being egotistical.
Walking free while his opposition is imprisoned? You're right, no dictator has ever been in that position, and nobody in that position has ever been frowned upon by history. The man rescinded an endorsement when a politician in his party showed hesitance to prosecute Morales' political opponents. Not to mention he fled the country the instant he didn't have power. These are not the behaviors of a good man with a clean conscience.
The website outlines that they're pacifists; environmentalists; believe in an "active state" in the eradication of poverty; believe "human work", as the creator of wealth, should be the first to benefit from wealth...
I hate to tell you this, but none of those things are inherently right or left-wing positions either.
 

crimson5pheonix

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Walking free while his opposition is imprisoned? You're right, no dictator has ever been in that position, and nobody in that position has ever been frowned upon by history. The man rescinded an endorsement when a politician in his party showed hesitance to prosecute Morales' political opponents. Not to mention he fled the country the instant he didn't have power. These are not the behaviors of a good man with a clean conscience.
Oh yes, when his political opponent wanted to imprison him unjustly after a violent coup threw him out of the office he won fair and square. Trying to paint him as a dictator is incredibly disingenuous. Just what the US State Department wants.
 

tstorm823

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Oh yes, when his political opponent wanted to imprison him unjustly after a violent coup threw him out of the office he won fair and square. Trying to paint him as a dictator is incredibly disingenuous. Just what the US State Department wants.
I don't base my opinions on the desires of the US state department. You shouldn't either.