Russia's actions causing a new cold war

[flatearth]

I find it scary how Russia is aggressively trying to secure it's dominance over the east again. America's missile defence systems in Poland have caused a massive outroar in Russia. They are preparing to defend against this kind of threats even with force. This time they are saying that they might cut all contact to NATO and are prepared for a new cold war. I'm old enough to remember the last decade of previous cold war, and it was no picnic. And one reason is, that I live in a rather small country just west of Russia, and I feel like a little fence that is trampled down when the cattle goes wild.

 

[Azhrarn-101]

Easy solution: let them cut all NATO contact, we'll cut off their IMF cash flow and demand immediate repayment of all IMF loans, freezing all of Russia's assets.
They'll be bankrupt before the end of the week.
Lets see what they do without money or international trade.

 

[Zykon TheLich]

I think its a situation to watch carefully, but I can understand russias reaction to the missile defense system, imagine what the US reaction would be if the Russians tried to install one in, say, Cuba.
Regarding Georgia, until we can prove that Russia engineered the situation by backing the seperatists in their recent alleged attacks on Georgia, then again I would say theirs was a fairly resonable reaction.

RE international trade, no, the EU is too reliant on imported russian energy, no way thats going to be cut.

 

[Stooman]

I don?t think you can solely blame Russia for the current situation. NATO has hardly been smart in its treatment of Russia in recent events leading to this crisis and its not hard to predict how Moscow will act when its already feeling encircled and NATO choose to fund, arm and train the military of Georgia (a country with which they have had ?fridged? relations with at best).
I recall that in the weeks prior to the South Ossetia War it was reported on Reuters that Russia was attempting the UN route to secure the region and if they were in fact going in to stop Georgian genocide and/or aggression against the native Ossetian population (as the Kremlin and several televised eye witness accounts have stated) then Russia did do a good deed.
Our half-wit of a Foreign Secretary David Millaband going round announcing a coalition against Russian aggression is hardly going to help the situation. He states that Moscow?s formal diplomatic recognition of the two Georgian separatist republics is illegal and against Georgia?s Sovereignty. I can?t help but think of a few months ago when Kosovo declared independence and many many countries stated that it was a bad move for NATO to recognise it and that, among others, Russia would cite that example in the future for ethic groups that it supports having the right to self-governance.

From my comfy chair some several thousand miles from the crisis zone its obviously very different for me and I have no way of knowing what?s going on bar researching on several different news organisations, and I don?t have the emotional investment that I would if I too lived in a border state. But from here it does seem that NATO is slightly over-reacting to this and is instigating the heightening on tensions more than anything else.

All I?m saying is let?s not immediately put all the blame on Russia?yet?.

 

[flatearth]

One thing that the president of Russia said felt a bit odd to me. He stated that Russia and Soviet Union were peaceful and constructive countries, and they never attacked anyone.

Never attacked anyone? Finland 1939 pops to mind first. That is just one example that hits close to me.

 

[mipegg]

Well, the fact is Russia cant afford a cold war. This'll blow over and be forgotten in a few weeks

 

[Stooman]

Never attacked anyone? Finland 1939 pops to mind first. That is just one example that hits close to me.

I'm guessing that the Russian government in that instance is sticking by the whole shelling of Mainila by Finland story then. And remember, Poland attacked Nazi Germany first too!

 

[flatearth]

The funniest thing about the Mainila incident is that at one point, I think it was Jeltsin, said that Soviet Union was to blame, and they did start the war. Now they seem to have flipped back.

 

[Dommyboy]

If Russia does run into any trouble with money they can always call on there allies. Obviously not America or Britain but Cuba and so forth would be happy to see the Americans get up in a twist about Russia proceeding with their plans.

 

[flatearth]

Russia is in a trade and military alliance with China, India and most of the East Asia. So if the west closes their border, the east will be more than happy to take the trade. This would create even heavier east/west division.

 

[Cousin_IT]

To be fair; Sticking a missile defence system in places like Poland to defend against "rogue states" should give a pretty clear idea of who they consider "rogue." America is just as much stuck with cold war thinking as Russia. & while Russias publiclly announcing putting it there makes poland a target for nuclear strikes is a bit OTT: If anyone thought otherwise theyre kidding themselves just as if Russia stuck the thing in Cuba it wouldnt make Cuba a target for American nukes.

 

[anti_strunt]

While Russia would most certainly like to claim that they were preventing a Kosovo-like genocide, simple fact is that Russia is playing old-school power politics; not embracing humanitarianism.
The conflict in South Ossetia (and the one in Abkhazia) has waged back and forth since before the break-up of the Soviet Union, with low-level ethnic cleansing from both sides, although Georgia was the more powerful party. Russian peace-keepers have in fact been stationed in the region since 1992 IIRC.
So why the sudden interest in a two-decades old conflict, with Russian forces already present? Either there was a clear and imminent threat, of a a sudden bout of ethnic cleansing, as Russia would like to claim, or perhaps there were other factors involved.

First, one interesting fact: Russia claimed that Georgia had attacked Russian nationals. The aforementioned peacekeepers? No - Russia had, since some years back, actively been issuing passports to South Ossetians, effectively making most of them Russia citizens! This is, as far as I know, unprecedented, and patently absurd.
Imagine if Mexico issued Mexican citizenship to the Pueblo indians, and then claimed the right to intervene on behalf of these new citizens.

There is also the issue of power - not political but electrical. I don't know if this has been brought up in American media, but Europe is utterly, completely and totally dependent on Russian oil and gas. As much as Europe might want to complain, all the Russians have to do is turn of the tap, and Central Europe is literally back to the Dark Ages.
How does this concern Georgia? Russia would obviously like to keep the status quo and prevent any alternative sources of energy from developing. Azerbaijan happens to be a major producer of oil, and the main pipeline from there to Europe goes through... Georgia. Coincidence?

The Transcaucasian conflicts since 1989 have all been dirty and ethnically driven, not just Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but Adjaria, the Armenian-Azeri wars and several others. It is shameful that the international community have shown so little interest, but it would be naïve to confuse these very proper humanitarian reasons for intervention with cold, calculating realpolitik.
And Russia is all about realpolitik.

 

[anti_strunt]

Russia is in a trade and military alliance with China, India and most of the East Asia. So if the west closes their border, the east will be more than happy to take the trade. This would create even heavier east/west division.

Europe doesn't have the choice as it is dependent on Russian energy.

China however, could probably give less of a shit about what Russia does, and certainly feels little solidarity with her. China wants stability and trade, she will never give that up for the sake of Russia.

 

[zirnitra]

it annoys me that people are so concerned about Russia is going to do. I'm pretty sure that if Russia put a Missile Defence system in Mexico and Canada the Americans would have some words about it. and does everyone sweep a country like North Korea so easily under the rug when it's the only true 'Rogue State' these days.

 

[Robert0288]

While Russia would most certainly like to claim that they were preventing a Kosovo-like genocide, simple fact is that Russia is playing old-school power politics; not embracing humanitarianism.
The conflict in South Ossetia (and the one in Abkhazia) has waged back and forth since before the break-up of the Soviet Union, with low-level ethnic cleansing from both sides, although Georgia was the more powerful party. Russian peace-keepers have in fact been stationed in the region since 1992 IIRC.
So why the sudden interest in a two-decades old conflict, with Russian forces already present? Either there was a clear and imminent threat, of a a sudden bout of ethnic cleansing, as Russia would like to claim, or perhaps there were other factors involved.

First, one interesting fact: Russia claimed that Georgia had attacked Russian nationals. The aforementioned peacekeepers? No - Russia had, since some years back, actively been issuing passports to South Ossetians, effectively making most of them Russia citizens! This is, as far as I know, unprecedented, and patently absurd.
Imagine if Mexico issued Mexican citizenship to the Pueblo indians, and then claimed the right to intervene on behalf of these new citizens.

There is also the issue of power - not political but electrical. I don't know if this has been brought up in American media, but Europe is utterly, completely and totally dependent on Russian oil and gas. As much as Europe might want to complain, all the Russians have to do is turn of the tap, and Central Europe is literally back to the Dark Ages.
How does this concern Georgia? Russia would obviously like to keep the status quo and prevent any alternative sources of energy from developing. Azerbaijan happens to be a major producer of oil, and the main pipeline from there to Europe goes through... Georgia. Coincidence?

The Transcaucasian conflicts since 1989 have all been dirty and ethnically driven, not just Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but Adjaria, the Armenian-Azeri wars and several others. It is shameful that the international community have shown so little interest, but it would be naïve to confuse these very proper humanitarian reasons for intervention with cold, calculating realpolitik.
And Russia is all about realpolitik.

Agreed.

This innitial latest flair up was because Gorgia wanted to re-establish control over south ossetia, and moved troops into the region. Russian peacekeepers where ALREADY in sout ossetia since 1991/1992. NOTE: this wasn't just Russian soldiers but soldiers from all over the CIS.

Instead of looking at the passport issue in that maner, its more like the south Ossetians want the protection of Russia, and apply for Russian citizenship. As for intervening on behalf of Russian citizens, I'm pretty sure the US has done this more than enough times around the world and there was never this kind of outcry.

Right now Russia exports something over 40% of Germanys oil, and a great deal of other nations as well. (not sure on the exact numbers for the others.) Yes Russia can cut off oil supplies for europe, but thats a double edged sword, as where do you think that the majority of Russia's income comes from?

Somone earlier talked about the Missle system in Poland as being a threat to Russia. If anything it would be an annoyance. Russia has enough missles that a couple dozen ABM sites in Poland wouldn't do anything, especially since the majority of the missle flight plans go over the pasific and the north pole. If anything the US should have used this as a bargining chip for Iran. We will Limit the number of ABMs in Poland to.... lets say 40. In the over all strategic view, 40 AMBs wouldn't do anything to Russia, but if a rogue nationstate starts launching missles, 40 would be more then enough. As it stands I believe that its double the ammount of medium range WMD capable missles Iran has. And so what if the Russians built an ABM site in cuba. What kind of flight plan would bring missles over cuba? maybe if the US decided to nuke south africa, but other than that its kinda pointless, and it would just make the Russians happy about themselfs.

 

[flatearth]

it annoys me that people are so concerned about Russia is going to do.

Something tells me that you don't live very near to Russia. I can't say for sure because it does not tell in your bio. Did you ever thought that to some people Russia is a neighbouring country, which makes it very important to watch what they are doing. I live in Finland, and we have more than 1000 kilometres of joined border with Russia. If Russia is going to start something larger in Europe, Finland would be first in line, as well as in the fallout area if other countries would decide to use nuclear weapons.

 

[zirnitra]

it annoys me that people are so concerned about Russia is going to do.

Something tells me that you don't live very near to Russia. I can't say for sure because it does not tell in your bio. Did you ever thought that to some people Russia is a neighbouring country, which makes it very important to watch what they are doing. I live in Finland, and we have more than 1000 kilometres of joined border with Russia. If Russia is going to start something larger in Europe, Finland would be first in line, as well as in the fallout area if other countries would decide to use nuclear weapons.

True I live in GB but my mothers side of the family is all Estonian so I've spent a fair amount of time over there. as well as knowing a fair amount of Polish immigrants and I know that within the neighbouring countries peoples view of Russia is overwhelmingly negative. but I feel that this is just because of bitter lasting feelings from the old regime of the USSR but I genuinely believe Russia will never revert to it's communist dictatorship dominating roots. Russia is going to start nothing in Europe or any of the Western world with out being provoked by other countries.

 

[Robert0288]

Here's a tidbit of information the NRC, is pretty much a bunch of monkeys throwing dung around the room, and a chance to establish sound bites for Reuters. And if NATO official disbands the NRC, I'm pretty sure the communication between NATO and Russia will continue the same way it was done before, just without the speeches.

Also NATO/US need Russia to support any actions they want to take around the world, this would also include support in the UN. So cutting official ties will hurt NATO more then Russia.

 

[Alex_P]

NATO's actions over the last decade can only really be described as "bear-baiting." It's not really surprising that this is the result.

-- Alex