Trying to figure out Star Wars:TOR's finacial plan.

[craftomega]

Ya I know awkward title.

Ok i have heard that EA spent (Since bioware is now EA's ***** I will not name them futher). $200 million on SW:TOR and i have heard the spent $500 million on SW:TOR.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-cost-200-million-to-develop-6348959

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/01/17/analyst-believes-star-wars-the-old-republic-had-a-500-million/

Fine we now know how much they spent... ish.... Anyways, EA has also said they need 500k subscibers to turn a profit.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

But what does that even mean? They need 500k subscribers for how long? A year? Two? Ten? So here is the math.

500k buy the game = 30$ profit per game (Estimate) = $15 million. (Averaged $30 with Origin)

500K Subscibe for a year at $180 = 90 million (This does not include upkeep costs)

So with this math they only make $105 million....I am now very confused. So lets try new numbers.

2 million buy the game = $60 million

1 million (averaged) subsciber for a year = $180 million
OR
500K Subscibe for 2 years at $180 = $180 million

Thats only $240 million... So im guessing this is what they ment. Only if they spent $200 million on the game.

Thoughts?

 

[craftomega]

Really no one finds this the least bit intresting? That makes me a sad panda.

 

[TephlonPrice]

My guess:

They're hoping for some other shit to sell in-game during the subscription time to maybe add to their returns, or at least break even here.

But using the original numbers (500k players), they'd need at least 3 years going strong, assuming nothing changes with the subscriptions to turn a profit... assuming they spent $200 mil, and not $500 mil.

 

[Jandau]

Here's the thing: Neither EA nor Bioware have any clue what they're doing. EA just wanted a piece of the MMO cake without understanding how it works. They saw the "RPG" in the "MMORPG" and figured Bioware would know what to do. Bioware didn't, they just wanted to keep making their regular RPGs, but couldn't refuse. EA figured they might need some help so they unloaded the Mythic team on them. The problem here was that the Mythic they bought wasn't really the Mythic that made the classic Dark Age of Camelot (that team fell apart over the years), but rather the team that made the failtastic Warhammer: Age of Reckoning.

The production costs were huge because Bioware went about making a single-player game the size of an MMO and wound up with something in between that seems to be pissing off both MMO players and single-player gamers. Granted, they have a fair bit of enthusiasm, but from what I've seen of their launch (which was rushed by EA to meet the Christmas deadline) Bioware isn't really sure what they're doing and seem to be going by trial and error (see the recent Ilum PvP disaster, also the crafting debacle).

EA's financial plan was mostly going "All your base are belong to us!" on WoW and enjoying the free money. They didn't really count on having to make a game that can compete with WoW. TOR can't, at least not as it is right now. It's not an MMO, it's a single player game with a coop component. And when singplayer gamers get bored of it, they'll leave.

TOR had solid initial sales due to the IP (Star Wars), the developer brand (Bioware) and some decent marketing. But I'm guessing it's retention rate will be fairly low. I'm guessing they'll settle around 500k-1mil subs by the end of the first year and coast there. If that's enough for EA to gradually return their investment, good on them.

The greatest challenges that TOR is facing is the 2012 MMO release lineup, with Guild Wars and Secret World looking good to rip the head off TOR, as well as Bioware itself, which has to learn the ropes of managing an MMO fast or they'll bleed even more subs. I know that I went from "TAKE MY MONEY!" to "Not sure if serious..." in the one month since TOR launched and have scratched it off my must-buy list, deciding to wait and see where they go with it first...

 

[Sixcess]

My guess:

They're hoping for some other shit to sell in-game during the subscription time to maybe add to their returns, or at least break even here.

Very likely, but EA/BW are out of their minds if they try to introduce microtransactions any time soon, given that SWTOR is a subscription game and P2P MMO players never react well when the game they're already paying for every month asks them for more money. I've never seen this not cause a shitstorm among the playerbase of an MMO and right now that's the last thing SWTOR needs.

They will do it, no question, some way down the line - every MMO does nowadays, even the P2Ps. It'd be very bad timing to even hint at it right now though.

500K was the figure given a few months pre-release by Bioware as the measure of success, which isn't too bad. Question is can they hold onto those figures for the years they want to?

 

[TephlonPrice]

Very likely, but EA/BW are out of their minds if they try to introduce microtransactions any time soon, given that SWTOR is a subscription game and P2P MMO players never react well when the game they're already paying for every month asks them for more money. I've never seen this not cause a shitstorm among the playerbase of an MMO and right now that's the last thing SWTOR needs.

They will do it, no question, some way down the line - every MMO does nowadays, even the P2Ps. It'd be very bad timing to even hint at it right now though.

500K was the figure given a few months pre-release by Bioware as the measure of success, which isn't too bad. Question is can they hold onto those figures for the years they want to?

,

They might not be able to hold on to those figures very long... Diablo III looks like it'll see a release this year, along with Guild Wars & Secret World, so it's got a lot to compete with.

 

[Nimcha]

It's not an MMO, it's a single player game with a coop component.

This is the single most ignorant thing about the game anyone can say. You obviously haven't played it. Besides the large amount of flashpoints and operations there's more than half a dozen group quests on each and every planet. Not to mention the hunt for datacrons and crystals that also require group play.

I really don't care about all the ridiculous bashing this game seems to get, but this is something people might actually believe when it's just blatantly untrue. In fact, of all the MMOs I've played this is the one with the largest amount of group content right from the start.

 

[Don't taze me bro]

The greatest challenges that TOR is facing is the 2012 MMO release lineup, with Guild Wars and Secret World looking good to rip the head off TOR, as well as Bioware itself, which has to learn the ropes of managing an MMO fast or they'll bleed even more subs.

I can't see The Secret World being much of a breakthrough MMO. I could be wrong, but no one I know or associate with are interested by it. It also doesn't help that the videos being release, like the recent Illuminati one are pretty ordinary. Yes GW2 is looking pretty good. I'll concede that. I despised GW and am really hoping to get into the beta for GW2. That being said, it's rumoured for a late 2012 release.

I'm playing Tor at the moment. It's the first MMO since Wow, that I have bought and considered playing after the free period. (I've played a lot of MMOs too). Despite many people claiming to have cancelled their account, it hasn't had any effect on my guild. If anything, the queue times dropped off suddenly, which I have no complaint about. We have held the same number of active players since release - about 40 players online at a time. But, we try to have an active community, run 3 raid groups for Eternity Vault, ilum raid groups and world pvp.

But I am still thoroughly enjoying the game. The new 4 man Kaon under siege is a fantastic new flashpoint and the additional bosses in Karagga's Palace were certainly welcome. The trouble is, players are consuming the content very quickly and WILL run out of things to do.

 

[Jimmybobjr]

Im really hoping to get into the MMO, But first i need to buy the game. But it looks much, much better than WoW; Less emphasis on PvP and more on the character - This i like. I havent tried it, but it looks almost exacticaly like what i want.

Also, i saw Secret World mentioned up there. Wheres my goddamned beta key?! I wanna play! (SW looks really quite awesome)

 

[enzilewulf]

Im really hoping to get into the MMO, But first i need to buy the game. But it looks much, much better than WoW; Less emphasis on PvP and more on the character - This i like. I havent tried it, but it looks almost exacticaly like what i want.

Its very fun mate. Yet I would encourage you to try some PvP. The war zones they have are very very cool.

I hope they do turn a profit, its a damn fun game and I think it was well made!

 

[Smooth Operator]

You need a better hobby mate, accounting is not exactly up there with the particularly amusing ones.

 

[Jimmybobjr]

Im really hoping to get into the MMO, But first i need to buy the game. But it looks much, much better than WoW; Less emphasis on PvP and more on the character - This i like. I havent tried it, but it looks almost exacticaly like what i want.

Its very fun mate. Yet I would encourage you to try some PvP. The war zones they have are very very cool.

I hope they do turn a profit, its a damn fun game and I think it was well made!

Nah, i hate PvP, for two reasons; One) I Live in Australia. In Perth. Were the arse end of the country in the arse end of the world, So its even harder to connect to proper American servers; I hear that americans complain of connections of 300 in World of Warcraft. I though that having a connection of 600 was good.

Two) There are allways builds, allways sets of gear, and rotations, and capture points, and spell counters, and class counters and... and... and... It goes on and on. I do like playing games with a bit of variety; In WoW, i could choose between a Frost Mage and a Arcane Mage whenever i wanted to PvE - But in PvP theres a special build thats the best, along with a special staff which, if i didnt have, meant i was a "Complete and utter retarded Wanker" as someone put it. (Exact Quote, too!).

Nah, i just prefer PvE.

 

[Dandark]

So from what I can tell from this thread, EA had no clue what they were doing with this game right?
I don't know whether to be happy or sad about that. On one hand it's always sad to see what looks like a decent game fail. Yet on the other hand it's made by EA......and I hate EA.

 

[Shadowkire]

500k buy the game = 30$ profit per game (Estimate) = $15 million.

500K Subscibe for a year at $180 = 90 million (This does not include upkeep costs)

So with this math they only make $105 million....I am now very confused. So lets try new numbers.

2 million buy the game = $60 million

1 million (averaged) subsciber for a year = $180 million
OR
500K Subscibe for 2 years at $180 = $180 million

Thats only $240 million... So im guessing this is what they ment. Only if they spent $200 million on the game.

Thoughts?

Except the game launched with over a million pre-orders(supposedly).

The basic game costs $60, with the deluxe and collector's versions costing even more.

1 million x $60 per game = $60 million

Then consider that is only the preorders, many people bought the game on day 1, so the numbers are closer to 2 million($120 million already).

That means BW and EA are already half way to paying off the cost of developing TOR.

 

[Flames66]

The greatest challenges that TOR is facing is the 2012 MMO release lineup, with Guild Wars and Secret World looking good to rip the head off TOR, as well as Bioware itself, which has to learn the ropes of managing an MMO fast or they'll bleed even more subs. I know that I went from "TAKE MY MONEY!" to "Not sure if serious..." in the one month since TOR launched and have scratched it off my must-buy list, deciding to wait and see where they go with it first...

That does look like the problem. I am a Star Wars fan and was really looking forward to the game when I first heard of it. Then came the subscriptions, then came the overdone graphics, then came origin and now it is on my list of "try this if it becomes free to play and drops origin".

The Secret World looks like a game I want to play, but apparently is going to require subscriptions so I might not bother.

 

[krazykidd]

500k buy the game = 30$ profit per game (Estimate) = $15 million.

500K Subscibe for a year at $180 = 90 million (This does not include upkeep costs)

So with this math they only make $105 million....I am now very confused. So lets try new numbers.

2 million buy the game = $60 million

1 million (averaged) subsciber for a year = $180 million
OR
500K Subscibe for 2 years at $180 = $180 million

Thats only $240 million... So im guessing this is what they ment. Only if they spent $200 million on the game.

Thoughts?

Except the game launched with over a million pre-orders(supposedly).

The basic game costs $60, with the deluxe and collector's versions costing even more.

1 million x $60 per game = $60 million

Then consider that is only the preorders, many people bought the game on day 1, so the numbers are closer to 2 million($120 million already).

That means BW and EA are already half way to paying off the cost of developing TOR.

Yeah but that isn't 60$/person doesn't go directly to EA. Some go to distributors, developpers , publishers . The 60$ the game costs is NOT 60$ into EAs pockets . I'm guessing it will take EA one year to break even , if all goes well . I hope all doesn't go well and EA crashes and burns into the ground .

 

[Ranorak]

I hope all doesn't go well and EA crashes and burns into the ground .

Why?

Just because you don't agree with their business plan or don't like their entertainment service?
You hope a huge company, that is solely out there to make products of entertainment, will crash, and millions will lose their job. While even more will lose, what they think is fun entertainment?
Because you don't like em?

Really?

I don't always agree with EA's ideas, but you could, you know, not buy their stuff.

 

[9thRequiem]

Any MMO will require a long-term subscriber base. Once established, this will easily pay for itself.

The question I'm wondering is how long the numbers will last. No matter your opinion of TOR, everyone agrees that the biggest draw is the story/dialog. Great for getting people in; not so great at keeping them around once they're done with this.

I'm interested in knowing just how many of those that bought it did so to play the stories then leave (I know I did - going to play a short while then ditch it). Given that many of those playing are doing so because of Bioware's previous games (All single-player), those willing to stick around may not be as high as you might think.

 

[WaReloaded]

I imagine that they'll have some sort of microtransaction system, too, similar to how Blizzard incorporated purchasable vanity pets/mounts into World of Warcraft. Perhaps merchandising (apparel, trinkets, etc) will provide EA with a large profit, I mean, they're able to market Star Wars goods now, so that'll definitely help them.