In the wake of the PS4?s announcement and the imminent XBOX 720 reveal, Nintendo must be feeling caught between a rock and a hard place. The 3DS (and the Vita) are proving that the portable game-console market is being killed by smartphones, and the WiiU?s already lukewarm reception is being driven into full chill by Sony?s and Microsoft?s next-gen platforms - as well as their marketing machines. All signs point to a somewhat bleak future for the once-king of gaming.
But there is a way out. It is innovative, and risky as hell. It will bring the future crashing in Nintendo?s door, shake Sony and Microsoft to the core, and put it in a larger arena against the likes of Apple and Valve. And Nintendo has to do it, or they will soon be gone.
When hardware was king
In the good old days there was Nintendo and there was Sega, and choosing a console was a decision from which you didn?t easily come back. Did you want speed, blast processing and Sonic the Hedgehog? Or did you prefer precision, six buttons on your controller and Super Mario? Two different consoles, two different architectures, and developers had to either work hard to convert their games from one system to the other, or conform to system exclusivity.
Sure, in theory game developers were better served by getting their games in the hands of as many gamers as possible. But rival systems were too different, and developing different versions for distinct consoles added real complexity (and increased costs).
But PS2?s dominance started to show that something was changing: as budgets increased, and publishers could no longer afford to develop multi-platform niche games. Either they had clear blockbusters, which could go multi-platform, or they developed just for the largest contender.
The current generation added a new wrench to this. Sony bet the PS3 would dominate, and weren?t prepared for real competition with the X360. Once the smoke cleared and it emerged that we were living in a multi-polar world, gaming companies simply had to publish games for both platforms, unless paid off by Sony or Microsoft. This made it impossible to get the full power out of the PS3?s complex architecture - games looked better in the X360 because they were developed first for the X360, which had an easier x86-based architecture, and were then ported to the PS3. And this caused real problems (e.g. Skyrim).
What about the Nintendo? In a daring move, Nintendo dropped out of this race altogether by trying to reach new consumers with the Wii. It worked brilliantly for a few years, like a new toy that everyone just had to have; and like a new toy everyone had to have, most people used it like a toy for playing Wii Sports and not much else. The fad passed, Nintendo decided to woo back the core gamers with the already-mentioned WiiU, and that?s where we are today. What about the future?
When software is king
The PS4 shows the road to the near future. Nice graphics, but no leapfrog as in previous generations. Same gamepad, with a small touchpad that may end up being as useful as the six-axis motion controls. But a huge, immense change in philosophy for Sony in the most critical component: the x86 processor.
That is the clearest indication possible that the game has changed, that hardware is no longer the key differentiator between consoles. Sure, Microsoft may try to change this with the Kinect (it will fail), Nintendo would like to change it with the WiiU?s touchscreen (it is failing), but for core, gamepad-based games and gamers, in hardware terms all systems are now the same. Games will be easily convertible between platforms, as long as the content owners allow.
What will differentiate consoles now is the ecosystem. That is the true message behind Sony?s focus on the share button, start-playing-while-downloading games, game broadcasting... They want to be your gaming-and-entertainment hub, and you can bet that the X720 will want to be the same too. They will try to win you over because your friends are here, so you should be too. They are now your gaming Facebook and MySpace - but with an entry ticket of at least $400, plus however much they charge you per month.
What is Nintendo to do? They can?t afford to launch a new console too soon, and the WiiU is not likely to fare better once its competitors arrive. They can follow the SEGA path and become a software house - they clearly have great games - but how long until they follow the exact SEGA path and just become one more software house among many? No, there is another way: it is not giving up like SEGA, it is not trying to find non-existent Blue Oceans like the Wii; it is leapfrogging Sony and Microsoft straight into the far future. It is a console-less future. It is cloud, or Steam.
When cloud becomes king
Steam is the sleeping giant, the already-functioning cloud-based ecosystem that may become a true contender after the exclusive-console ends. Apple too, if they cared about the games - and who knows what they may be preparing? - but as of now, Steam is the key. And the Big Play mode, the always-rumored SteamBox, the launch in Linux and Mac systems, these are critical indications that Steam has a long-term plan to become your gaming hub and ecosystem too.
And Nintendo can surpass it in an instant. Imagine a full ecosystem, a WiiLand service that you can download to your PC, interact with your friends and do everything you can do on the PS4 or the X720. The only gaming ecosystem where you can get Mario and Zelda games - all of them, from the NES era to today. But also all the Genesis games, third-party ones, everything Steam already has. In your PC, tied to your account, so once you buy you never have to purchase them again.
Or maybe Nintendo wants you to have an easy alternative to get there, if you don?t have a PC (all three of you). Hey, launch a general-purpose, open-source x86-based NintendoBox too - they already have the retail and production logistics, no sense letting it go to waste. And for those who don?t want a full box, release the PC-compatible gamepads separately. Maybe that?s the key - make the gamepad the entry fee! You buy the gamepad, you register in your PC, you?re in WiiLand. And no monthly subscription, please! You?re competing with Steam and the AppStore now, make money on games you sell - don?t charge people for access to your store.
Too similar to Steam? Doesn?t have to be. Nintendo used to have a Seal of Quality, remember? Let Steam be the indie-darling, open-source, greenlight-free-for-all it wants to be. You?re Nintendo?s WiiLand, you?re THE place for quality-controlled, parent-friendly and nostalgia-heavy gaming. Sure, all new blockbusters will be there - with clear ESRB ratings, and an Amazon- or Reddit-like system for people to vote on each game?s quality. With all the Mario games. On the PC. How can it fail?
To put it another way, Steam has some nice exclusives - Half-life, Portal etc. EA also has some potential with Origin, but they will keep selling on the PS4 and X720 - and will sell on WiiLand too, given the chance. But WiiLand can be a killer gaming ecosystem - available in any PC, launching with all the Nintendo, nostalgia and blockbuster games one could possibly want.
And Nintendo needs to start working on this, today. Because either the PS5/X1440 or the PS6/X2880 will do this. Because Steam will keep pushing forward. Because Apple will join the party, sooner or later.
Because, if it doesn?t, Nintendo will follow the path of Sega. And the WiiU will be its Dreamcast.
But there is a way out. It is innovative, and risky as hell. It will bring the future crashing in Nintendo?s door, shake Sony and Microsoft to the core, and put it in a larger arena against the likes of Apple and Valve. And Nintendo has to do it, or they will soon be gone.
When hardware was king
In the good old days there was Nintendo and there was Sega, and choosing a console was a decision from which you didn?t easily come back. Did you want speed, blast processing and Sonic the Hedgehog? Or did you prefer precision, six buttons on your controller and Super Mario? Two different consoles, two different architectures, and developers had to either work hard to convert their games from one system to the other, or conform to system exclusivity.
Sure, in theory game developers were better served by getting their games in the hands of as many gamers as possible. But rival systems were too different, and developing different versions for distinct consoles added real complexity (and increased costs).
But PS2?s dominance started to show that something was changing: as budgets increased, and publishers could no longer afford to develop multi-platform niche games. Either they had clear blockbusters, which could go multi-platform, or they developed just for the largest contender.
The current generation added a new wrench to this. Sony bet the PS3 would dominate, and weren?t prepared for real competition with the X360. Once the smoke cleared and it emerged that we were living in a multi-polar world, gaming companies simply had to publish games for both platforms, unless paid off by Sony or Microsoft. This made it impossible to get the full power out of the PS3?s complex architecture - games looked better in the X360 because they were developed first for the X360, which had an easier x86-based architecture, and were then ported to the PS3. And this caused real problems (e.g. Skyrim).
What about the Nintendo? In a daring move, Nintendo dropped out of this race altogether by trying to reach new consumers with the Wii. It worked brilliantly for a few years, like a new toy that everyone just had to have; and like a new toy everyone had to have, most people used it like a toy for playing Wii Sports and not much else. The fad passed, Nintendo decided to woo back the core gamers with the already-mentioned WiiU, and that?s where we are today. What about the future?
When software is king
The PS4 shows the road to the near future. Nice graphics, but no leapfrog as in previous generations. Same gamepad, with a small touchpad that may end up being as useful as the six-axis motion controls. But a huge, immense change in philosophy for Sony in the most critical component: the x86 processor.
That is the clearest indication possible that the game has changed, that hardware is no longer the key differentiator between consoles. Sure, Microsoft may try to change this with the Kinect (it will fail), Nintendo would like to change it with the WiiU?s touchscreen (it is failing), but for core, gamepad-based games and gamers, in hardware terms all systems are now the same. Games will be easily convertible between platforms, as long as the content owners allow.
What will differentiate consoles now is the ecosystem. That is the true message behind Sony?s focus on the share button, start-playing-while-downloading games, game broadcasting... They want to be your gaming-and-entertainment hub, and you can bet that the X720 will want to be the same too. They will try to win you over because your friends are here, so you should be too. They are now your gaming Facebook and MySpace - but with an entry ticket of at least $400, plus however much they charge you per month.
What is Nintendo to do? They can?t afford to launch a new console too soon, and the WiiU is not likely to fare better once its competitors arrive. They can follow the SEGA path and become a software house - they clearly have great games - but how long until they follow the exact SEGA path and just become one more software house among many? No, there is another way: it is not giving up like SEGA, it is not trying to find non-existent Blue Oceans like the Wii; it is leapfrogging Sony and Microsoft straight into the far future. It is a console-less future. It is cloud, or Steam.
When cloud becomes king
Steam is the sleeping giant, the already-functioning cloud-based ecosystem that may become a true contender after the exclusive-console ends. Apple too, if they cared about the games - and who knows what they may be preparing? - but as of now, Steam is the key. And the Big Play mode, the always-rumored SteamBox, the launch in Linux and Mac systems, these are critical indications that Steam has a long-term plan to become your gaming hub and ecosystem too.
And Nintendo can surpass it in an instant. Imagine a full ecosystem, a WiiLand service that you can download to your PC, interact with your friends and do everything you can do on the PS4 or the X720. The only gaming ecosystem where you can get Mario and Zelda games - all of them, from the NES era to today. But also all the Genesis games, third-party ones, everything Steam already has. In your PC, tied to your account, so once you buy you never have to purchase them again.
Or maybe Nintendo wants you to have an easy alternative to get there, if you don?t have a PC (all three of you). Hey, launch a general-purpose, open-source x86-based NintendoBox too - they already have the retail and production logistics, no sense letting it go to waste. And for those who don?t want a full box, release the PC-compatible gamepads separately. Maybe that?s the key - make the gamepad the entry fee! You buy the gamepad, you register in your PC, you?re in WiiLand. And no monthly subscription, please! You?re competing with Steam and the AppStore now, make money on games you sell - don?t charge people for access to your store.
Too similar to Steam? Doesn?t have to be. Nintendo used to have a Seal of Quality, remember? Let Steam be the indie-darling, open-source, greenlight-free-for-all it wants to be. You?re Nintendo?s WiiLand, you?re THE place for quality-controlled, parent-friendly and nostalgia-heavy gaming. Sure, all new blockbusters will be there - with clear ESRB ratings, and an Amazon- or Reddit-like system for people to vote on each game?s quality. With all the Mario games. On the PC. How can it fail?
To put it another way, Steam has some nice exclusives - Half-life, Portal etc. EA also has some potential with Origin, but they will keep selling on the PS4 and X720 - and will sell on WiiLand too, given the chance. But WiiLand can be a killer gaming ecosystem - available in any PC, launching with all the Nintendo, nostalgia and blockbuster games one could possibly want.
And Nintendo needs to start working on this, today. Because either the PS5/X1440 or the PS6/X2880 will do this. Because Steam will keep pushing forward. Because Apple will join the party, sooner or later.
Because, if it doesn?t, Nintendo will follow the path of Sega. And the WiiU will be its Dreamcast.
