x86 consoles, smartphones and tablets, failing Wii U... this generation is... weird.

[EstrogenicMuscle]

I'm sure there's other topics about this here somewhere.

But gaming is going through some interesting growing pains.

The Wii U appears to be doing worse than the Gamecube did. And most people in the industry do not forsee the system taking a significant pickup.

That leaves Sony and Microsoft as the major contenders in the market. And a lot of folks seem to be jumping ship for Sony's PlayStation 4 this generation.

But even though, there are still people who think this is the last generation of consoles, and it will fail. That the PlayStation 4 will not sell significantly better than the Wii U. If this is true, then we're basically in for another 1983 market crash.

If x86 consoles, the PlayStation 4 and the new XBOX do well, it means good things for PC gaming. The PlayStation 4 won't stay more powerful than a PC for the same price for very long. And the new XBOX is going to be late to the party, so it will be outdated even sooner. Because of x86, we're going to have many more multiplatforms than last generation.

People argued that the XBOX was very similar in architecture to the PC. But I get the feeling that a lot of those feelings are tied to the fact that the XBOX is a Microsoft console. Using Power architecture makes the system a lot different in many ways from standard PC architecture. The PlayStation 4 sounds much more like a PC than the XBOX 360. Thus, a world with PC and console back and forth ports will happen even more than before. Because multiplatform will be cheaper than ever.

If the PlayStation 4 and new XBOX fail, then the industry is in a strange place. Either developers will continue to develop for old consoles, like the PlayStation 3 and XBOX 360. Or, we will see "hardcore gaming" switch to a PC, smartphone, tablet, and handheld based market.

I'm personally betting on the PlayStation 4 doing at least moderately better than the Wii U. But I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the industry right now. Several market analysts are saying the market is dead. But, PC gamers, don't rejoice in that, because they're not claiming PC gaming will rise. They're saying tablets are the gaming platform of the future.

I honestly wish I could say I know what is going to happen to the current industry. But I don't. Do you have any wisdom or predictions to share on this shaking industry?

 

[Entitled]

My bet would be that the industry is growing more multipolar.

Computing hardware is getting cheap enough, that even Kickstarted startups producing android consoles can produce "good enough" graphics for most basic genres, (as first demonstrated by the Ouya, and that's success or failure matters little it's proof of concept). The Oculus VR HMD really seems to work, and Valve may make their own HMD to match Steambox. Google Glass (or cheaper future competitors) are about to bring AR gaming, that will mostly divide up the tablet/mobile market that is already divied between Android and Apple. As desktop PCs are going to disappear from the average home but gamers still need something to play their MMORPGs and RTSes and MOBAs and simulators on, the old "Gaming PC" might turn into a more single-purpose hardware.

In the end, I expect that there will be at least two dozen separate platforms, based around maybe a dozen separate paradigms (which here means things like "mobile touchscreen gaming" or "VR gaming" or "TV&couch-based AAA gaming"). Many of these will follow the old PC direction of open platform with free access to indies hackers and pirates, while a few might be basically console-like, as a first party corporation's bundle of services.

 

[MetalDooley]

The Wii U appears to be doing worse than the Gamecube did. And most people in the industry do not forsee the system taking a significant pickup.

Would these be the same people that predicted that the Wii would flop and lead to Nintendo dropping out of the hardware market?Or the people that predicted that the Vita would comfortably outsell the 3DS?Or maybe the same people that foresaw the PSP destroying the DS?

Yeah people in the industry are real good at predicting the future

 

[Mr.Mattress]

The Wii U appears to be doing worse than the Gamecube did. And most people in the industry do not forsee the system taking a significant pickup.

Looks can be decieving, because the WiiU actually outperformed the Xbox 360 and the PS3 in their respective launch periods. The reason it's not outdoing them right now is because they both have at least 70 million people playing on it. The Point is, the WiiU is fine.

I do agree we're in for the roughest generation of game consoles since the first gen though...

 

[COMaestro]

The Wii U appears to be doing worse than the Gamecube did. And most people in the industry do not forsee the system taking a significant pickup.

Looks can be decieving, because the WiiU actually outperformed the Xbox 360 and the PS3 in their respective launch periods. The reason it's not outdoing them right now is because they both have at least 70 million people playing on it. The Point is, the WiiU is fine.

I do agree we're in for the roughest generation of game consoles since the first gen though...

The PS3 did poorly in its launch period due to the hefty $600 price tag, and Xbox 360 was...what $400? 500? Compare to the $300/350 for the WiiU, its an easier amount of money to spend on a gaming system, so it is not surprising that it is doing better in the launch window than its more expensive brethren.

The WiiU is ultimately suffering from a lack of titles, much as the PS3 did upon its launch. For every system you will have your early adopters, people who have the money and are willing to spend it in the expectation of great games to come. But you have many other people who want the great games to be available before they drop a wad of cash on the system. I expect some decent titles for the WiiU before the end of the year and I believe more systems will sell. Nintendo just needs to give people a reason to buy, and they haven't yet. They probably should have ensured more third-party support or had a couple more first-party titles ready to go at launch then they did. If they had, the system would probably be doing much better.

The price point is going to be a major contributer I believe as to how Sony and Microsoft do in the next gen. Sony will definitely need to charge less money than they did for the PS3 if they want to start off with good sales, but with the off-the-shelf x86 hardware this should be doable, much more so than it was with the expensive Cell processor (and Emotion chip for the earlier models). If they can keep the price between $400-500, I think the PS4 will sell well, as long as there are good games that people want to play.

If I were in charge, I'd try to ensure at least one title from every major genre to release with the PS4 launch (so one each of FPS, TPS, racing, sports, fighting, RPG, and maybe a casual title). Knack seems like it'll be somewhat casual, though I admit I haven't looked at it much. Killzone will fill the FPS niche. If Infamous is ready to go at launch, that's the TPS ready. I remember some racing game at the reveal in February. So they already have titles for many of the genres lined up, which should help make some sales at launch.

Microsoft needs to shut down this always-online rumor at their reveal next month before or they are going to lose the next-gen market entirely. And if it is true, they better have a damn good reason for it or they may as well stop producing consoles. I have no idea what exclusives are planned for the launch of their next system, if any. I suppose we'll learn next month. The games had better be damn good though, as even if the always-online rumor turns out to be false, it sounds like many people have already decided to jump ship this gen since Microsoft refuses make any attempt to squash the rumor.

 

[TrevHead]

In many ways the west is going down the same path that the Japanese industry did 5+ years ago, AAA is stagnating while more ppl are gaming on their handhelds. Shame Cliffy B isn't more like Inafune in telling western AAAs that they suck.

Anyway even if the industry is contracting, with the new console cycle looming they still need to make some killer apps or the console industry is in dire trouble. Other than your CoDs & Forza I'm not expecting much from 3rd parties on any console so the job will rest on 1st party software. MS only puts out Kinnect games nowadays something that may bite them in the arse, Ninty will hopefully pull their finger out and release some good 1st parties eventually.

It's Sony that has me scratching my head. They been axing more studios than EA as of late. Do they have any 1st paties left outside of Team ICO?

 

[EstrogenicMuscle]

Looks can be decieving, because the WiiU actually outperformed the Xbox 360 and the PS3 in their respective launch periods. The reason it's not outdoing them right now is because they both have at least 70 million people playing on it. The Point is, the WiiU is fine.

Shows what I know. Or perhaps what I've been told and took for granted.

I thought that might be the case. But I doubted it were true, since there were so many Wii U doomsayers.

As someone who owns a Wii U, I certainly hope it can and does pick up. I'm certainly looking forward to titles such as "X" by Monolith Soft.

 

[The White Hunter]

In many ways the west is going down the same path that the Japanese industry did 5+ years ago, AAA is stagnating while more ppl are gaming on their handhelds. Shame Cliffy B isn't more like Inafune in telling western AAAs that they suck.

Anyway even if the industry is contracting, with the new console cycle looming they still need to make some killer apps or the console industry is in dire trouble. Other than your CoDs & Forza I'm not expecting much from 3rd parties on any console so the job will rest on 1st party software. MS only puts out Kinnect games nowadays something that may bite them in the arse, Ninty will hopefully pull their finger out and release some good 1st parties eventually.

It's Sony that has me scratching my head. They been axing more studios than EA as of late. Do they have any 1st paties left outside of Team ICO?

They have Sucker Punch, Guerilla, Santa Monica, Naughty Dog, MediaMolecule, a few others knocking about. Sony actually has a lot of first party content going for it.

My bet next gen is it's gonna be tougher because people just aren't so well off at the moment, the PS4 is gonna be the example of Sony finally frigging learning their lesson about pricing and hopefully marketing and we may see it outdo the Xbox in Europe, perhaps not the US, I could see some nasty legal stuff going down if it does. Microsoft being a petulant child of a corporation much like apple.

Indie devs are gonna be more important too, particularly in the PC space. Sony are doing a lot to nurtute indie devs and make it easy for them, aswell as giving third parties access to the hardware itself rather than something like directx which I'm told by industry people makes life a lot easier.

Wii U will find more of a market when the games come out, I know a fair few people waiting on say Pikmin 3 or Fire Emblem X SMT to come out to get one, thats the Wii U's issue, I have one and only own 3 games still, need to pick up Lego City when I see it a bit cheaper, and then a lot of stuff crammed into the Q3 and Q4 slots for the year...

 

[Arkley]

The Wii U's bad launch doesn't necessarily mean it's going to have a bad run. The PS3, DS and 3DS all had truly dreadful first years.

For comparison, the Dreamcast had one of the strongest launch lineups of all time and sold out across the globe on launch.

The Wii U hasn't even been out for a year yet. If it reaches year two and is still in the same situation, we can call it a failure and start to worry. But right now? There's still reason to hope.

 

[Maximum Bert]

Not as many units as the Wii at launch, but conversely it made Nintendo more money than the Wii's launch did, and it outdid the PS3 and 360 in those periods. January and February were bad months saleswise, no matter how you spin it. Lack of new games out and a lack of marketing meant that sales dropped to almost nothing. That's where the doomsaying comes from.

How did it make them more money when they were selling it at a loss which they never did for the Wii? was the game pick up rate so huge that it actually allowed them to make more profit than they did on the Wii launch which was bloody huge for ages that console was sold out everywhere around here for months after it was released.

Also if the three main consoles all fail it would either be because they have all made terrible decisions or that people are not interested in games anymore or at least the games that you settle down to play traditionally and not the throw away games you might play on the move. To be honest I cant see many of the android consoles making it if indeed any do and as for smartphone or tablet games they were fun because they were new, I believe they will have their place but I hardly know anyone who actually plays them anymore except for a handful of the more popular ones they have heard about but ofc they only get these because they already have the hardware (that they spent a small fortune on but cant afford a decent PC or a console).

Anyway smartphones and tablets target a different market than consoles and PCs as for the WiiU failing I havent heard much about that it seems to be doing fine from what I have seen not amazing sure but ok I do wish they would get some games out for it though come on Nintendo wheres Bayonetta 2 wheres Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (or whatever they are going to call it) wheres the new 3D mario? I seriously hope they are not going to be stupid and try and contend with the launch of the PS4 and Nextbox by announcing them then they need to get people attention back now and get an installed base the casuals are gone they need to show the traditional market they can still provide them with the goods as they seem to be written off as a kiddie console by most ignorants while others have just stopped paying attention to them as they feel Nintendo no longer cares about them preferring to pursue the casual crowd.

Nintendo imo needs to shout and get peoples attention now not in a few months time oh and poor choice of name Nintendo most non gaming people seem to think the wiiU is basically the wii but with a different controller while the so called hardcore dont tend to have amiable feelings towards the wii name in the first place. Also its still a stupid name.

 

[Alfador_VII]

It's Sony that has me scratching my head. They been axing more studios than EA as of late. Do they have any 1st paties left outside of Team ICO?

Quantic Dream and Naughty Dog come to mind immediately. There's also SCE Santa Monica, who are directly responsible for the God of War series as well as helping to bring smaller stuff like Unfinished Swan, Flower and Journey to PSN.

Oh and also Guerilla Games (Killzone), and Media Molecule. I'm bound to be forgetting a few more.

So yeah, Sony have a few devs working for or with them.

 

[vasiD]

The PlayStation 4 won't stay more powerful than a PC for the same price for very long.

Pretty sure the PS4 is actually weaker than most modern top of the line PCs, I know I built mine a year ago not even using top of the line gear and it has better specs in a lot of places (though the PS4 might have a one up on my graphics card, but I haven't SLI'd it yet as I haven't hit any graphical walls).

I personally am no longer a console gamer as it just doesn't make sense to me any more. I'd rather not be a corporate puppet having to pay absurd amounts of money for everything from games to accessories just for the honor of playing on a weaker system with less potential (as in my computer is also my recording studio, and can be anything I want it to really). My only interest in this console generation are the rumors of "Always-On" bullshit from Microcock as it could set a precedent leading to more systems adopting the draconian DRM (and given that Microdick created my OS... Could be sketchy for future versions, which like Windows 8 I could choose to avoid, but you can only do that for so long before new games won't work).

That said I hope they do put out the console with always on so it can fail miserably, and perhaps with the Xbox brand gone the level of "BRO" currently in gaming will go down.

It's funny how Sony and Nintendo aren't really doing anything that great with their consoles but next to the Microsoft rumors they look like saints.


Oh, and you were curious as to why PC gamers aren't cheering excitedly at the lower console sales: We don't really care that much. I mean the PC market simply won't be affected, it's been around too long and in a big way it's still at the core of gaming (certainly game design as every game you have ever played was made on a PC). Would it be cool if the consoles just died tomorrow and all the great studios they have by the throat had to start putting out their excellent games on PC? Yeah, totally, but that's not terribly likely to happen... And frankly emulation means that eventually every game will come to PC any way (I know when the PS2 came out I couldn't imagine emulating it, but I can certainly emulate it now).

So, yeah, on behalf of PC gamers: we don't give a fuck.
As a former console gamer: I mildly give a fuck, but in the same sort of way you might creepily stalk an ex's facebook for a bit after the break up just because that person has been such a big part of your life up until that moment and you have this weird longing even though part of you never wants to see that person again.

 

[BrotherRool]

I'm predicting the PS4 and the nextbox do a lot better than the Wii U is doing right now. The Wii's fanbase, about from the Nintendo diehards (and I think even some of those finally gave up on Nintendo this generation. One of my Link worshipping friends caved in and bought an Xbox because he actually enjoys there being game to play), it's audience are exactly the sort to never hear about a new console launch and struggle to understand why they should play something where every controller but one is a bog standard Wii mote anyway.


On the other hand PS3/360 players (particularly 360 players because MS catered hard to the shooters) are much more likely to know about a console release and much more likely to buy one so that they can play on the most populated CoD and FIFA servers.

And for the very hardcore, all the Wii U has been announcing is that it has the ability to play games that we can already play. Hey guys how about for the next-gen console you can play Deus Ex:Human Revolution? What? You bought a non-wii and played that already? Whereas the PS4 already has new games lined up for it and there's every sign that all of the multiplatform devs are going to switch over and make games for it on release.


The fact that PCs, PS4's and 720's will share similar architecture is another sign that the Wii U is going to be playing the oddball roll again. And it will mean the PS4/720 is bound to succeed (at least one of them) because stuff like CoD will force adoption. As much as PC elitests say, PC's are not an option for most people. People want games that don't require trawling forums for bug fixes to work, people want to play on their TV, people have a PC that can't run games well and don't want to get caught up in the hardware arms race. People want a controller not a mouse and keyboard. People have families and living arrangements where the computer is in use and they need another space for gaming.


A lot of those situations are actually fixable with the amazingly flexibility of PCs. But fixing stuff requires knowledge, faith and effort (and money) and too many people don't have sufficient amounts for it to catch on

 

[Epona]

What people keep forgetting with the Wii U is that Nintendo still hasn't shown their hand yet.

LOL, is this the new way of saying "There are no games worth buying on the WiiU"?

Hey, I can do that too. "Sony just hasn't shown their hand with the Vita yet, people keep forgetting that."

 

[Epona]

The Wii U's bad launch doesn't necessarily mean it's going to have a bad run. The PS3, DS and 3DS all had truly dreadful first years.

For comparison, the Dreamcast had one of the strongest launch lineups of all time and sold out across the globe on launch.

The Wii U hasn't even been out for a year yet. If it reaches year two and is still in the same situation, we can call it a failure and start to worry. But right now? There's still reason to hope.

Comparisons can be used to show any point. I am sure it wouldn't be too hard to find some dead console (like the CD-I or the 3DO) that had a bad launch and also failed.

It reaches year two in November, when the PS4 comes out. Do you see anything on the horizon that will turn the WiiU around? I certainly don't.