1/7000000000000 or 50/50

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mjc0961

YOU'RE a pie chart.
Nov 30, 2009
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Your friends are right about the chances being one 1 to 7 billion or whatever the big number is. Of course, you're right that it either kills him or doesn't kill him, but the chances of hit being him are not 50/50. It's 1 in 7 billion as he is just one of a huge number of people who may be killed.
 

Richardplex

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Jun 22, 2011
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You either kill him or you don't, yes. But the probability of it being him is 1 in 7 billion.

Say if the lottery gave no prizes apart from getting all 6 numbers. Then you would either win it or don't. so Everyone would have a 50:50 chance of winning the lottery. And we should all know that is just simply not right.

I can see your logic; you just didn't take into account the weighting between each probability; it's split between the probabilities, not just the number of outcomes.
 

Bravo 21

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May 11, 2010
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i thought that this was a thread on the new movie, i am not really disappointed, his odds should be 1 in 7 billon, not 1 in 2.
 

Naeo

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Dec 31, 2008
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Math says your friends are right. The 50/50 is probably coming from the idea that there are only two outcomes in this regard: your friend dies, or your friend does not die. However, there is not an equal chance for each of those outcomes. If I'm randomly throwing, I dunno, raisins from the empire state building, every raisin either will hit the ground or will not hit the ground. However, there is not a 50/50 chance of the raisin not hitting the ground.

Fractions are your friend. If there are seven billion people on earth, and the button randomly selects one person on earth to kill, then the chances of it being your friend are exactly one in seven billion.
 

Yopaz

Sarcastic overlord
Jun 3, 2009
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Now let's define 2 possible results of tossing a dice. You either get 6 or you don't. 2 possibilities, what is the probability of getting a six on your first toss? 1/6 not 1/2.
If you don't believe me take a dice and toss it 1000 times. By your logic you should get about 500 sixes in those throws rather than somewhere around 166. Toss it a million times for more accurate informations. The relative frequency for 6 will be around 0.16667 no matter how many times you do it.
Just because there's only 2 possible outcomes doesn't mean that the chance is 50%. You're using binomic probability, but not understanding what it is.
 

Kilo24

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Aug 20, 2008
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You get into a car and go for a trip. It is possible that you either crash and die, or that you do not crash and die: therefore 50% of car rides you go on will kill you?

The chances of you spontaneously combusting (or die in such a way that resembles it) within the hour are also 50% because there is possibility of either combusting or not combusting. Using the same line of rationale, it's also just as likely that you will spontaneously combust within a second or within an hour. And that because you can either spontaneously combust or not spontaneously combust to die, 50% of all deaths are from spontaneous combustion. And it also implies that since there are X amount of ways to die, 1/X is the probability of dying from spontaneous combustion (which does not equal 50%).

You may note a few slight contradictions here. Either the laws of probability really, really suck or you're misinterpreting them.
 

Shoqiyqa

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Mar 31, 2009
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Scarim Coral said:
Dammit this is mind boggling me!
Quite frankly I think possibility are correct. Yes it is 50/50 but to be honest the chanse of your mate being being killed is very slim due to the other random people involve in the chance.
The wrong. It hurts.

I really should not have to do this, but here are dictionary definitions.

fifty-fifty [http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/fifty-fifty]

adverb adjective

(into) equal halves

They divided the prize fifty-fifty.
There's only a fifty-fifty chance that she'll survive the operation.
fifty-fifty [http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fifty-fifty]

adjective
1.
equally good and bad, likely and unlikely, favorable and unfavorable, etc.: a fifty-fifty chance of winning.
adverb
2.
in an evenly or equally divided way: The board voted fifty-fifty on the merger.
fifty-fifty [http://www.thefreedictionary.com/fifty-fifty]

adj.
1. Divided or shared in two equal portions: a fifty-fifty split.
2. Being equally likely or unlikely: had a fifty-fifty chance of surviving.

Adj. 1. fifty-fiftyfifty-fifty - equal in degree or extent or amount; or equally matched or balanced; "even amounts of butter and sugar"; "on even terms"; "it was a fifty-fifty (or even) split"; "had a fifty-fifty (or even) chance"; "an even fight"
It does not mean "There are two possible outcomes." It means "There are two equally likely possible outcomes."

Fun fact: the first entry on google's search results page was "fifty-fifty = zero"
 

Bluntman1138

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Aug 12, 2011
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If you want to think a little more philosophically, the actual odds would be 2 in 7,000,000,000 (You cant exclude yourself if the button kills ANY random person, unless the button pusher has immunity)

As a side note. If money was involved, due to the odds, i would press the button without any hesitation. And maybe ask for a second go around.
 

Mikkaddo

Black Rose Knight
Jan 19, 2008
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UNKNOWNINCOGNITO said:
Okay I've been trying to wrap my head around this and cannot make exact logical sense in it. If I were to push a button and the result of doing so shall randomly kill a person in the world what are the chances of it being my best friend ?

My argument is that it would 50/50 of it being my friend since the process is random and no one is favoured in anyway so it is either it is him or it is not him.

2 friends of mine instead say that the chances are 1 to 7 billion (assuming there are still 7 billion people on earth) that someone I know shall get axed from the random process.

I ask you escapist which one is it and why ?

The problem is, if you're going from The Box, the movie, it's a very specific person and there's a reason for it. If you go from the book however, it's random, but it's the Genie random, ie: random with ironic consequences. For instance, the situation IN the book
the wife presses the button, gets the money, and a few hours later it's announced to her that her husband had died, she deciphers that it was the button, tears it apart to find no mechanics, and the phone rings, she answers and it's the man that gave her the button, she tells him it's all his fault, and demands to know how the someone she "didn't know" could be her husband, to which he replies "but madame, how well did you really know your husband?"
 

Denamic

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Aug 19, 2009
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UNKNOWNINCOGNITO said:
My argument is that it would 50/50 of it being my friend since the process is random and no one is favoured in anyway so it is either it is him or it is not him.
...are you fucking serious?
50/50 = 50% chance.
Let's say you roll a d20 10000 times.
If 50% chance is what you're arguing, you should roll 20 5000 times, which is 50% of the time.
However, in reality, you'll end up rolling 20 around 500 times.
The "either you do or you don't = 50/50" argument is actually stupid enough to be rightfully called retarded, and you need to be embarrassed that you would even consider it being even remotely correct.
I'm serious, this is shit a 6 year old can figure out.
 

Davidm4

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Aug 4, 2011
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Me (never played tennis) vs Rafael Nadal 50/50. I either win or I don't..... *facepalm*
 

kebab4you

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Jan 3, 2010
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lunncal said:
Well, assuming that the chance is completely random, and everyone in the world has an equal chance of being chosen, and you only have 1 friend, then it would be a chance of 1 in 7 billion.

Just because (in your mind) there is 2 possible outcomes does not mean they are equally likely. For example, you either win the lottery, or you don't win the lottery, but chances are far far greater that you won't win.
Getting hit by the lightning is a greater chance the winning on lottery^^

And yeah, agree with above post, thank you for saving me time typing :)
 

Joby Baumann

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Apr 19, 2011
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50/50, not because that is the correct answer, (the true statistics say 1 in 7 billion) but because Murphy's Law would obviously lead to having best friend dead. (Well, maybe your spouse, mother, favorite sibling, pet goldfish, or other important entity in your life will die instead)
 

doggie135

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Feb 2, 2011
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I see what you mean:
Two possibilities - Him or Not Him.

But these probabilities aren't equal in chance. So the probability of it being him is 1 in 7,000,000,000.

Unless the decision is between your friend and one person already selected, in which case it would be 50 to 50.
 

Malrock

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Dec 18, 2010
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It is not 50/50. People are confusing the having of two possible outcomes with the idea of 50/50 probability.

Sure it will either happen or it won't, but the chances of it happening are far far less than the chance that it won't. It's the fact that it is weighted in the favor one of the two outcomes that means it is not as simple as 50/50 chance.

Hope that makes sense.
 

jaketaz

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Oct 11, 2010
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That question is completely retarded. You're saying it's 50/50 because it's either "him" or "not him". Just because there are two options doesn't mean they're equally likely. That's like saying you have a 50/50 at every lottery ticket, because it's either the winning ticket or NOT the winning ticket. If that was a 50/50 chance, you could buy like 5 lottery tickets and basically guarantee yourself that you'd become a multimillionaire, which is obviously not grounded in reality at all.
 

DarkRyter

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Dec 15, 2008
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UNKNOWNINCOGNITO said:
My argument is that it would 50/50 of it being my friend since the process is random and no one is favoured in anyway so it is either it is him or it is not him.
Wait, what?

Just because there's two possible results, that doesn't mean they're both just as likely to happen.

That's not how probability works, bro.
 

WolfThomas

Man must have a code.
Dec 21, 2007
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OP 1/7Billion

Monty Hall Problem time:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1 [but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
 

Flare Phoenix

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Dec 18, 2009
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WolfThomas said:
OP 1/7Billion

Monty Hall Problem time:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1 [but the door is not opened], and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
I'd say no. It's 50/50 whether or not you're going to get a car or a goat now. Unless I'm missing something...