Brexit blues

[Agema]

Hey, remember Brexit? That happened this year. Before coronavirus and all, that funny old world we might dimly remember.

So, we're planning here in Blighty the exciting future of being no longer fettered to the EU: global, free trade Britain (except for that amazing free trade relationship with the EU which is 50% of the UK's trade: that's being dumped)! Singapore in the North Sea, or something. The whole world will beat itself to our doorstep for amazing trade deals, except... oh dear...

US message to Britain in bilateral trade talks: it's us – or China

Proposed clause seen by diplomats intended to be a lever to deter closer UK-China relations

www.theguardian.com

Turns out one of our super-exciting prospective trade partners might object to us super-excitingly trading with another super-exciting prospective trade partner. I wonder if this is a lesson in the importance of being part of a bigger trading bloc?

Nevertheless, despite coronavirus and all, the PM assures us that we are definitely leaving the transition period (where we remain under old EU systems despite no longer being a member) at the end of 2020, even if we've got basically nothing done over the last few months due to a pandemic and there's a metric shit-ton of things to do.

Incidentally, because it's just so funny, remember how we were told Brexit would reduce red tape? Turns out the UK has to hire 50,000 civil servants to manage post-transition trade with EU states. That's about 60% more civil servants than the EU government employs in total.

 

[Chimpzy]

Ye of little faith, you'll see, soon Britannia shall once more relive its glorious colonial days. Possibly with the slight caveat of being the territory this time.

Anyway, haven't been keeping up with Brexit, but it seems to be going about as swimmingly as expected.

 

[Agema]

Anyway, haven't been keeping up with Brexit, but it seems to be going about as swimmingly as expected.

Brexit is like a huge, uflushable turd: stinks, blocks everything up, can't get rid of it, and the people who made it seem strangely proud of the accomplishment.

 

[Trunkage]

I found it incredible that the US demanded Britain be free of the EU before they would do a deal. And then went behind Britains back and tried doing a deal with the EU.

There are a lot of deadlines coming up in June. It's going to be an interesting month

 

[Agema]

I found it incredible that the US demanded Britain be free of the EU before they would do a deal. And then went behind Britains back and tried doing a deal with the EU.

To be fair, I think both were the right thing to do for the USA.

What the USA could agree with the UK was highly dependent on the relationship the UK agreed with the EU. If the UK, for instance, chose close harmony with the EU, then a lot of US interests where it and the EU are not in alignment are off the table immediately. Also, if the UK realised it was getting a shitty deal off the USA, it might change how it approached Brexit, not to the USA's interests. For the other, the USA is obviously right to prioritise the EU over the UK as well, as the EU's a vastly larger market, so has far more opportunity for benefit.

The problem I fear the British have is a delusion that the good relations between the UK and USA somehow means the USA are somehow going to drop self-interest and not go tough on them. But in international politics, business is business. I thiink the civil service know the USA don't give the UK special favours. The elected politicians, I'm not so sure, and the British public are easily suckered into over-optimism by a notion that the USA are some sort of Anglo-Saxon brothers. The British, of course, have a huge and persistent delusion that their country is important and powerful. If Brexit achieves anything beneficial, hopefully one of them will be a greater sense of humility in my coutry about its place in the world.

 

[Trunkage]

To be fair, I think both were the right thing to do for the USA.

What the USA could agree with the UK was highly dependent on the relationship the UK agreed with the EU. If the UK, for instance, chose close harmony with the EU, then a lot of US interests where it and the EU are not in alignment are off the table immediately. Also, if the UK realised it was getting a shitty deal off the USA, it might change how it approached Brexit, not to the USA's interests. For the other, the USA is obviously right to prioritise the EU over the UK as well, as the EU's a vastly larger market, so has far more opportunity for benefit.

The problem I fear the British have is a delusion that the good relations between the UK and USA somehow means the USA are somehow going to drop self-interest and not go tough on them. But in international politics, business is business. I thiink the civil service know the USA don't give the UK special favours. The elected politicians, I'm not so sure, and the British public are easily suckered into over-optimism by a notion that the USA are some sort of Anglo-Saxon brothers. The British, of course, have a huge and persistent delusion that their country is important and powerful. If Brexit achieves anything beneficial, hopefully one of them will be a greater sense of humility in my coutry about its place in the world.

I'd actually agree on all poing. Especially people in the UK pretending Bretton-Woods never happened

The US likes throwing its dick around during trade deals. Trump pretends it didnt during the abandoned TPP. That seems like a mismatch

 

[Sneed's SeednFeed]

You guys got some decent music out of it though.

 

[Hawki]

The sun set on the British Empire, and in the process, stumbling around in the dark, the UK has broken its leg.

 

[lil devils x]

You have my sympathies, I know you, along with many of my friends in the UK tried to do everything you could to stop this from happening. I too tried to explain how this was going to go to the Pro Brexit Escapists, but they tried to tell me I didn't know what I was talking about, and the propaganda they were consuming in the UK supporting the Brexit just HAD to be the truth when I had explained that the contracts the UK would receive would be worse than, not better than their existing EU contracts for their people, that the UK would be forced to reduce their standards and be willing to put their people in harms way to obtain the US contracts they had been championing and when I had shared the information I had already at the time of US companies already working to undermine UK interests and take their EU contracts instead of the UK actually coming out ahead here. Even prior to to the UK exiting the EU we had a good number of US companies hoping to swoop in and take UK's contracts from the EU by offering them a better deal than the UK would be capable of.

The Brexiteers failed to consider that the reason the US was so supportive of them leaving the EU was due to the US hoping to profit off their suffering rather than genuinely trying to help them. The UK lost their bargaining power when losing the power of the EU, and have now been removed from seat at the table of "world powers" and will instead be sent to sit at the kiddie table with less powerful nations who will get the scraps left over after the world powers are done negotiating. It is going to be an adjustment and reality check for sure.

The double whammy of Brexit AND a poor government response to the global pandemic I worry is going to severely impact every region of the UK.

"These additional shocks on top of the challenges coronavirus is likely to leave in its wake cannot be understated or ignored. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that the Prime Minister’s approved withdrawal deal will make every region of the U.K. poorer when compared to EU membership. The figures show the U.K. economy is also expected to be more than 3% smaller than it would be as an EU member, and those estimates assume an ambitious free trade agreement is in-place and ready to go by January 1, 2021. "

Public Finance Professionals Get Ready: Coronavirus Meets Brexit

Since the spread of the coronavirus developed into a full-blown crisis, talk of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) has fallen by the wayside.

www.forbes.com

Sadly though, even in those estimates it is over inflating the benefits of a free trade agreement, in reality the free trade agreement means less pay, less social benefits, less healthcare benefits per person in order to be able to remain competitive in the global economy. Otherwise, someone else is going to swoop in and steal your contracts by offering a better deal for those receiving them. The UK's membership in the EU is what protected those things, they have now lost that protection and will be forced into the same situation many other nations are forced to deal with in the global economy of the free market. The global free market is still being propped up by the slave economy mindset of cheap, disposable labor and harsh working conditions that are still required to retain their competitive prices that are necessary to keep their contracts. So what it really amounts to for the working people of the UK, is to reduced pay, harsher working conditions, less benefits or be out of work all together as they are replaced entirely with automation, which directly amounts to high unemployment and increased poverty while also having decreased revenue streams to draw from to pay to prop it up while it collapses. In order to remain competitive, you have two options 1) increased automation and higher unemployment or 2) slave wages. Either way it doesn't look good.

 

[Chimpzy]

The double whammy of Brexit AND a poor government response to the global pandemic I worry is going to severely impact every region of the UK.

That's not really true, innit? Consequences are only for the common folk.

 

[lil devils x]

That's not really true, innit? Consequences are only for the common folk.

Of course the less well off will be impacted much more harshly, but as I linked above, according to this:
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that the Prime Minister’s approved withdrawal deal will make every region of the U.K. poorer when compared to EU membership. "

Every area will be impacted, in the end though, you are correct that the truly dire situations will likely be reserved for " the common folk", though it is still possible that those who owned these UK companies who are losing their contracts to the US or China to completely lose their arse entirely as well during all this.

 

[Neuromancer]

On the bright side, we can start hoping for another Scottish referendum.

 

[Agema]

On the bright side, we can start hoping for another Scottish referendum.

First time round, I was against Scotland leaving. I lived in Scotland for years and made a lot of friends there, and it felt quite personally heartbreaking for it to leave. But if there were a second referendum, the UK government and English nationalism has been so disappointing that I don't have the heart to ask them not to go.

On the other hand, if Brexit has taught us anything, it's that leaving the UK now will be an incredibly difficult prospect for Scotland. Scotland will be forced to either align with England and Wales or the EU... and if it aligns with the EU, that means a proper, full on border with England and Wales - passports, lorry checks, etc. when Scotland is proportionally much more linked to England and Wales than the UK is to the EU. That will be a titanic and painful problem in the short term.

 

[Thaluikhain]

The UK lost their bargaining power when losing the power of the EU, and have now been removed from seat at the table of "world powers" and will instead be sent to sit at the kiddie table with less powerful nations who will get the scraps left over after the world powers are done negotiating.

A nuclear capable less powerful nation with, IIRC, the 2nd greatest military logistical capability after the US (though a long way after). This will be yet another kick in the teeth for the UK, but they still are an important nation, just a lot less so.

 

[Hawki]

A nuclear capable less powerful nation with, IIRC, the 2nd greatest military logistical capability after the US (though a long way after). This will be yet another kick in the teeth for the UK, but they still are an important nation, just a lot less so.

How do you define logistical capability? I mean, I'm no expert, but I don't think the UK has that much in the way of "hard power." It maintains a lot of "soft power," mainly through the Commonwealth, but that's about it.

To be honest, I don't think the UK is that influential. This isn't from spite, my dad's English, I live in Oz, I can't help but feel some affinity for it, even in light of the acknowledgement that many have good cause to dislike the UK, including indigenous Australians. But in the scheme of things...well, okay, it's on the UN Security Council, and again, the Commonwealth. But in the current scheme of things, the US and China are the two major players in the world. Not too long ago, I saw a report that the UK's army was effectively in shambles. It has nuclear weapons, but nuclear weapons are only really good for deterrence nowadays, and no-one's seriously going to invade the UK anyway. There's a strong chance that Ireland will reunify, and strong chance that Scotland will want independence because, IIRC, the majority of Scots voted against Brexit, and they want the nukes off their land, and the UK has no place to store them (I'd argue that the UK doesn't really need nukes, but that's another matter). I don't know if Wales has much, if any separatist sentiment, but it seems academic. And economically, the UK is mainly a services economy. A quick check revealed that it's got one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world.

And look, maybe I'm wrong about a lot of this. I think culturally, the UK will retain its influence for a long time - there's a reason why I'm writing in English after all. But in terms of actual influence, I doubt it. If you want to look at the big hitters of the 21st century, it'll be China, the US, and India - arguably Africa as well, if we're looking at continents. If you're looking at Europe, I'd peg the 'leader' of the continent as Germany, with Russia being the erstwire cousin that nobody can decide as to whether they're part of the family or not. UK though? Not so much.

 

[Neuromancer]

First time round, I was against Scotland leaving. I lived in Scotland for years and made a lot of friends there, and it felt quite personally heartbreaking for it to leave. But if there were a second referendum, the UK government and English nationalism has been so disappointing that I don't have the heart to ask them not to go.

Sentimentality means little in the end. The Scots have not had a proper say in the affairs of their own country for hundreds of years. Brexit showed more than anything how little England cares for Scotland. The promise was made during the first referendum that the UK would not leave the EU. One can see where one should stick England's promises. And as with anyone that doesn't keep their promises and shows constant disrespect, the best option is walk away.

On the other hand, if Brexit has taught us anything, it's that leaving the UK now will be an incredibly difficult prospect for Scotland. Scotland will be forced to either align with England and Wales or the EU... and if it aligns with the EU, that means a proper, full on border with England and Wales - passports, lorry checks, etc. when Scotland is proportionally much more linked to England and Wales than the UK is to the EU. That will be a titanic and painful problem in the short term.

The Irish border was a pretty massive issue due to Brexit. No deal Brexit, which was something Boris championed for the longest time, meant a closed border with Ireland. Even if in the end there has been a commitment to open borders, the English government danced around with a topic that not too many years ago got people killed. The difficulty and the potential bloodshed meant little to them.

Would a break up be difficult? As with any fresh start, it will be difficult, yes, and the border is the least of it. But as has been brazenly demonstrated these past few years, the only way any part of the so-called "United" Kingdom other than England is going to have a proper say to what happens to them is if they go their own way.

 

[Thaluikhain]

How do you define logistical capability? I mean, I'm no expert, but I don't think the UK has that much in the way of "hard power." It maintains a lot of "soft power," mainly through the Commonwealth, but that's about it.

The ability to deploy and supply forces to places beyond your own borders. For which you want a large blue water navy (preferably with aircraft carriers) and/or lots of foreign bases. The UK may not have a large military, but it can send it across the world in a way that most nations just can't.

 

[Agema]

The promise was made during the first referendum that the UK would not leave the EU.

That promise was not within the power of whoever said it to make, and that should have been recognised by Scots. The SNP didn't see it as a promise: they made it clear something like leaving the EU would trigger a second referendum, indicating they accepted the possibility it might happen.

... the English government danced around with a topic...

The British government. The English just happen to be a majority. I'm happy to accept the Scots being dissatisfied with the actions of the British government, but I absolutely am not tolerant of them picking and choosing to call it an "English" government whenever something happens they don't like. Scots serve as politicians and civil servants in that government, in party apparatus, and all aspects of British public life. What Britain has done, Scotland has done. Secondly, even where a majority of Scots have opposed the actions of the British government, the supporting minority (38% in the EU referendum, for instance) is very substantial. You disrespect a lot of your own countrymen by acting like they don't count.

Would a break up be difficult?

Very. It would have been difficult in 2014, but the UK's EU membership would have smoothed out a lot of problems. It will be harder without EU membership. The EU was, I think, almost a perfect vehicle for things like Scottish or Catalan independence, because it provided a nice framework of regulatory alignment to keep a lot moving.

As with any fresh start, it will be difficult, yes, and the border is the least of it. But as has been brazenly demonstrated these past few years, the only way any part of the so-called "United" Kingdom other than England is going to have a proper say to what happens to them is if they go their own way.

Independence is the only way that any population at all can have a proper say in what happens to them. What applies to Scotland also applies to Orkney within it, and within Orkney to Stromness, and within Stromness to Gregor and Karen McDonald at 14 Brodgar Road. There's always a trade-off between autonomy and strength in numbers. The issue is whether the autonomy is worth the other costs. Hostility to the EU - which is of course not that uncommon across Europe - reflects this tension.

Scotland can claim independence, but may still find a lot of aspects of that independence illusory as it ends up constrained in many ways, or it might find independence comes at a cost that it may end up regretting - with the UK's exit from the EU as a warning. But like I said, the way things are going, that independence and autonomy from the UK is looking more attractive than it did a few years ago, even despite the potential cost.

 

[lil devils x]

That promise was not within the power of whoever said it to make, and that should have been recognised by Scots. The SNP didn't see it as a promise: they made it clear something like leaving the EU would trigger a second referendum, indicating they accepted the possibility it might happen.



The British government. The English just happen to be a majority. I'm happy to accept the Scots being dissatisfied with the actions of the British government, but I absolutely am not tolerant of them picking and choosing to call it an "English" government whenever something happens they don't like. Scots serve as politicians and civil servants in that government, in party apparatus, and all aspects of British public life. What Britain has done, Scotland has done. Secondly, even where a majority of Scots have opposed the actions of the British government, the supporting minority (38% in the EU referendum, for instance) is very substantial. You disrespect a lot of your own countrymen by acting like they don't count.



Very. It would have been difficult in 2014, but the UK's EU membership would have smoothed out a lot of problems. It will be harder without EU membership. The EU was, I think, almost a perfect vehicle for things like Scottish or Catalan independence, because it provided a nice framework of regulatory alignment to keep a lot moving.



Independence is the only way that any population at all can have a proper say in what happens to them. What applies to Scotland also applies to Orkney within it, and within Orkney to Stromness, and within Stromness to Gregor and Karen McDonald at 14 Brodgar Road. There's always a trade-off between autonomy and strength in numbers. The issue is whether the autonomy is worth the other costs. Hostility to the EU - which is of course not that uncommon across Europe - reflects this tension.

Scotland can claim independence, but may still find a lot of aspects of that independence illusory as it ends up constrained in many ways, or it might find independence comes at a cost that it may end up regretting - with the UK's exit from the EU as a warning. But like I said, the way things are going, that independence and autonomy from the UK is looking more attractive than it did a few years ago, even despite the potential cost.

If Scotland does choose to leave the UK, how long would it take for the EU to accept them as a full member on their own?

 

[Hades]

If Scotland does choose to leave the UK, how long would it take for the EU to accept them as a full member on their own?

Long considering Spain absolutely does not want to give Catalonia any hope that they can join the EU if they secede. If Spain decides to kick up a fuss then Scotland will have to wait regardless of what the rest of Europe wants.