Brexit blues

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lil devils x

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Long considering Spain absolutely does not want to give Catalonia any hope that they can join the EU if they secede. If Spain decides to kick up a fuss then Scotland will have to wait regardless of what the rest of Europe wants.
Spain is an EU member and does not recognize Catalonia as being independent. The UK could very well recognize Scotland's independence, irregardless if they do or don't though they are no longer an EU member so The EU could care less what the UK has to say about it. Scotland could make a deal with Spain to get them on board and also contend they are different situations that are not comparable. So if Spain was on board with readmitting Scotland on their own since Scotland voted to stay a part of the EU, how long would that process even take?
 

Neuromancer

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That promise was not within the power of whoever said it to make, and that should have been recognised by Scots. The SNP didn't see it as a promise: they made it clear something like leaving the EU would trigger a second referendum, indicating they accepted the possibility it might happen.
The promise, such as it was, was made as part of a series of promises the Westminster government made at the time. Another one was to grand the Scottish Parliament new powers, specifically in regards to decisions concerning taxes and welfare policy.

That also didn't happen.

The British government. The English just happen to be a majority. I'm happy to accept the Scots being dissatisfied with the actions of the British government, but I absolutely am not tolerant of them picking and choosing to call it an "English" government whenever something happens they don't like. Scots serve as politicians and civil servants in that government, in party apparatus, and all aspects of British public life.
Fair enough, though I would hardly say that the Scottish part has nearly as much say in what happens, and especially in regards to Northern Ireland. Still, I concede the semantic, but the point remains that the rest of the kingdom has to follow England's lead even if it explicitly disagrees with it. And what we are talking about is something that the rest of the kingdom (except Wales) largely disagrees with.

What Britain has done, Scotland has done.
If merely by association in regards to Brexit, which is the topic of discussion. I do not call the government English only when it does something I dislike, but in the case of Brexit, it is predominantly an English decision.

Secondly, even where a majority of Scots have opposed the actions of the British government, the supporting minority (38% in the EU referendum, for instance) is very substantial. You disrespect a lot of your own countrymen by acting like they don't count.
Alright, first of all, I am not sure where you got the impression I am Scottish, but I am not. I am only clarifying this to not give a false impression, but I am, from my father's side, Northern Irish.

Second, much like with Northern Ireland, which is a place that I do have a say in, the decision should be on the people of the country. I am a republican, but if the majority of the people in NI wish to stay in the UK, it is a decision I would accept and acknowledge, even if I disagree with it.

Which brings me to the third point: I find this talk of disrespect laughable, when you consider that the British government acts as though the majority of Scottish and Northern Irish opinion doesn't count by forcing them through something they do not want on the wishes of England (and Wales), because the majority of the vote is in English hands. Northern Ireland didn't ask for border anxiety in the second decade after things started calming down. Ultimately, though, even if the entirety of it was against Brexit (and it wasn't), even if the entirety of Scotland also was against it (and again, it wasn't), they would still fall subservient to largely English wishes. That is what I mean when I talk about self-determination. It is an example of a country not having a say due to being a lesser partner in a union.

What applies to Scotland also applies to Orkney within it, and within Orkney to Stromness, and within Stromness to Gregor and Karen McDonald at 14 Brodgar Road.
Yes, I agree. But this isn't a discussion on the system of government itself, of which I have a myriad things to say. It is a discussion of the national scale, and it is on the national scale that I am staying.

. The issue is whether the autonomy is worth the other costs. Hostility to the EU - which is of course not that uncommon across Europe - reflects this tension.

Scotland can claim independence, but may still find a lot of aspects of that independence illusory as it ends up constrained in many ways, or it might find independence comes at a cost that it may end up regretting - with the UK's exit from the EU as a warning. But like I said, the way things are going, that independence and autonomy from the UK is looking more attractive than it did a few years ago, even despite the potential cost.
Yes, reality does degree that one should be pragmatic.And certainly, an independent Scotland that becomes economically subservient to, say, the EU would mean that national self-determination would go away. Just look at the treatment Greece has had the past 20 years, whose economic policy was dictated almost entirely by Brussels and the Troika. However, I still believe that independence would be worth it, because at least it presents the chance and opportunity at self-determination. Something that Scotland does not have as long as it remains in the UK.
 

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Spain is an EU member and does not recognize Catalonia as being independent. The UK could very well recognize Scotland's independence, irregardless if they do or don't though they are no longer an EU member so The EU could care less what the UK has to say about it. Scotland could make a deal with Spain to get them on board and also contend they are different situations that are not comparable. So if Spain was on board with readmitting Scotland on their own since Scotland voted to stay a part of the EU, how long would that process even take?
Countries have to have a stable democracy to join the EU. I don't think Scotland would qualify if they just suddenly declared independence without recognition by the UK. Even if Scotland met the qualifying criteria and Spain didn't throw a spanner in the works, there's still a bunch of other countries waiting to join, so Scotland would go to the back of the queue.

Scotland would have to take the shock of leaving the EU along with the rest of the UK, and then take the shock of leaving the UK and not having a national currency, and then wait an indeterminate amount of time to rejoin the EU, with no guarantees of success.
 

lil devils x

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Countries have to have a stable democracy to join the EU. I don't think Scotland would qualify if they just suddenly declared independence without recognition by the UK. Even if Scotland met the qualifying criteria and Spain didn't throw a spanner in the works, there's still a bunch of other countries waiting to join, so Scotland would go to the back of the queue.

Scotland would have to take the shock of leaving the EU along with the rest of the UK, and then take the shock of leaving the UK and not having a national currency, and then wait an indeterminate amount of time to rejoin the EU, with no guarantees of success.
I am confused about the relationship of the nations within the UK, are they not independent nations that chose to join together in contract, not unlike what the EU has done? Have they not had a stable democracy this entire time and choosing to undo a previous contract would not be considered destabilizing it, as they would still retain their previously elected representatives correct? Would Scotland's previous membership and vote to stay in the EU also not also be considered in the process as well? I would think the EU members would have a say in how long that would take wouldn't you think? Of course I also would think that Scotland would be smart to have private negotiations with each EU member and leadership prior to choosing to leave the UK and have other details worked out in advance to make the transition as smooth as possible if they were to choose to consider that path.

When you look up Scotland, it shows it to be a "country" that is part of the UK, not just a territory of another country. Which would be different circumstances to many of those on the waiting list that could impact it's position in line.
 

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I am confused about the relationship of the nations within the UK, are they not independent nations that chose to join together in contract, not unlike what the EU has done? Have they not had a stable democracy this entire time and choosing to undo a previous contract would not be considered destabilizing it, as they would still retain their previously elected representatives correct? Would Scotland's previous membership and vote to stay in the EU also not also be considered in the process as well? I would think the EU members would have a say in how long that would take wouldn't you think? Of course I also would think that Scotland would be smart to have private negotiations with each EU member and leadership prior to choosing to leave the UK and have other details worked out in advance to make the transition as smooth as possible if they were to choose to consider that path.

When you look up Scotland, it shows it to be a "country" that is part of the UK, not just a territory of another country. Which would be different circumstances to many of those on the waiting list that could impact it's position in line.
I don't think there was much choice involved (especially not for Wales and Ireland). Scotland essentially had to join the Union to avoid going bankrupt, and it has now been a part of the UK longer than the USA has existed. The constituent nations of the UK are pretty tightly connected, it would be very difficult for one to become independent. Scotland would need to adopt a new currency, they would need to develop national infrastructure and governance, they would need to take on their share of the national debt, the British armed forces would need to broken up, and so on.
 

Agema

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If Scotland does choose to leave the UK, how long would it take for the EU to accept them as a full member on their own?
Long considering Spain absolutely does not want to give Catalonia any hope that they can join the EU if they secede. If Spain decides to kick up a fuss then Scotland will have to wait regardless of what the rest of Europe wants.
Tough to answer. I think the EU will in principle be happy to accept Scotland, because (with the UK gone) it's "adding" what is likely to be a trusted, useful, productive and reliable extra member. Given the recent presence of Scotland in the EU via the UK, they could probably hurry things through as it may be assumed still in reasonably close alignment. Hades is however right to say that Spain might have some discomfort about it all because of the example that Catalonia might follow and try to apply the brakes. But the EU and its members might have all sorts of ways of persuading Spain to drop such resistance. It's all a big "no-one really knows".

I think even fast-tracked, well over a year. Maybe "a few" to five years if not.
 

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Tough to answer. I think the EU will in principle be happy to accept Scotland, because (with the UK gone) it's "adding" what is likely to be a trusted, useful, productive and reliable extra member. Given the recent presence of Scotland in the EU via the UK, they could probably hurry things through as it may be assumed still in reasonably close alignment. Hades is however right to say that Spain might have some discomfort about it all because of the example that Catalonia might follow and try to apply the brakes. But the EU and its members might have all sorts of ways of persuading Spain to drop such resistance. It's all a big "no-one really knows".

I think even fast-tracked, well over a year. Maybe "a few" to five years if not.
Yea, I think it may not be that difficult for Scotland to win Spain over by declaring that the two situations are not comparable and buttering it up with business contracts. As long as Spain has no reason to worry about Scotland supporting Catalonia, I don't see a reason for them to object, and I can imagine that Scotland would be more than willing to keep out of Spain's business if it means gaining additional EU contracts that will be lost due to the Brexit, in addition to possibly picking up some of those lost from the UK due to Scotland's renewed access to the single market. Scotland being an English speaking EU nation would make them a valuable EU asset to have in terms of US- EU businesses that are looking to relocate from London due to loss of access to the single market. Though, If Scotland has already been in private discussions with EU leaders on re-entering the EU post Brexit, it could also undermine EU- UK negotiations for remaining in the single market as the EU would already know they could shift much of that business to Scotland post Brexit. Any nation though would love to gain the benefits of having the US-EU financial hub moved to their nation, so I am sure there will not be a lack of contenders regardless of what happens with Scotland. The EU does not have incentive to do UK any favors with single market access, as the remaining member nations will benefit greatly financially from moving that from the UK. For London and the UK though, that move will be devastating.

I think though that even if the UK some how manages to remain in the single market, the hub will still likely move regardless because they would want an EU financial hub to actually be in an EU nation.
 

Satinavian

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At the time of the last referendum it was said that the EU would not admit Scotland because it has to safeguards its member states instead of promoting secessions. But now UK is no longer a member, so the argument that admitting Scotland would encourage Catalonia etc. is significantly weaker than then.

Spain probably still won't like it but maybe they can agree if the EU pressures rest-UK to give up on Gibraltar.


As for how fast it is possible, well alignment is easy, they don't have to change much. But establishing a souvereign Scottish nation with all the stuff that entails like a proper currency and central bank might take a bit.
 

Trunkage

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I forgot to add that I'm still laughing at the government, who was so worried about borders and immigrants they broke ties with the largest single market just to make sure British job were for the British, chartered flights for hundreds immigrants into the UK because the British didnt want to do those jobs. During a high unemployment time. With little prospects of finding job they like.

It's almost like they don't understand people, Capitalism or the economy
 

Agema

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Spain probably still won't like it but maybe they can agree if the EU pressures rest-UK to give up on Gibraltar.
Yes, it occurred to me that Gibraltar is an obvious pressure point. The EU may be inclined to neutrality over Gibraltar and tell Spain and the UK to work it out themselves, or it can support Spain. The latter is definitely going to happen eventually, when something arises where Madrid or Brussels want leverage over the other.

As for how fast it is possible, well alignment is easy, they don't have to change much. But establishing a souvereign Scottish nation with all the stuff that entails like a proper currency and central bank might take a bit.
A few years should do it.