Could The Steam Box eat at the PS4/XBone? (Sales Wise?)

[Mr.Mattress]

Well, against my prediction, it seems that Valve is getting ready to Announce and Release their own Home Console, the Steam Box [http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2013/09/20/valve-announcing-the-steam-box-on-monday/]. Some people have speculated that the Steam Box will be more powerful then either the PS4 or XBone [http://www.cgmagonline.com/articles/editorials/steam-box-power-xbox-one-playstation-4.html]. If that is true, and it's priced in between the PS4 and XBone, could it possibly hurt the PS4 and XBOne?

I personally think that it might affect the PS4 a little bit, but it would definitely be fighting Microsoft in terms of sales. Heck, I think it would actually split XBone sales in America and straight up steal them in Europe.

So, what are your thoughts? Discuss.

 

[UnnDunn]

With the mindshare Valve has built over the years, they probably have the best shot of anyone at introducing a viable console to compete with the Big Two.

The problem is whatever console they introduce will be based on Linux, so it will not benefit from the deep existing library that Steam on Windows enjoys. They'll basically be building their library from scratch.

 

[BrotherRool]

At the moment no, there's basically no AAA games on Steam that run on Linux. I looked at all their 300 linux games and found 3 games _total_ that I cared about, and all three were much better with a mouse which is useless if you're hooking up to the TV.

And there's no guarantee that a steambox would continue to run games at max settings. They need to produce something for under 350 pounds that is not only as good as a PS4, but will also continue to run PC games at high settings for the next 4 years.

----------------------------

I think the Steambox is a knife-edge deal. If they can sell 5 million Steamboxes right out the gate and promise more, then maybe AAA developers will start porting games to Linux, maybe AAA developers will use the hardware as a baseline and optimise it to run properly. Maybe.

And if they don't, well the Wii U is finding it hard enough to attract people to make games for it with a 3.6 million install base. I can't see publishers pretending to care about less. And the steambox is only at all useful if they do.


Sure you have access to great indie games, but guess what, so does the PS4. Before launch Sony have already captured 1/12th of the entire market Steam has built up for Linux since conception. And that's just what's been announced so far.


Of course Valve has money and Valve has brains, they could have improved WINE so it can reliably play windows games. They could pay developers to port to Linux. But they really need to do pull something out of the bag for it to work

 

[ohnoitsabear]

Now, obviously, we know very little about what the Steam Box actually is. So basically anything that's said here is pure speculation, and nobody will be able to give a good answer until next week.

That said, I'm decidedly in the "not much will change" camp. I really don't see this impacting console sales. In fact, I see this making a bigger dent in PC sales, especially budget and mid-range prebuilt PCs.

Now, think about it this way. Most of the people who are paying attention to this are PC gamers to some extent. People who play exclusively on consoles, especially those that don't really pay attention to gaming news (which is most gamers in general), probably don't even know that Valve is announcing hardware, and even if they did, they probably wouldn't care.

So basically, I really don't see this having much of an effect on the console market.

 

[UnnDunn]

One of the potential scenarios I've heard is the idea that Valve could introduce Half-Life 3 exclusively on Steam Box to drive sales of the platform. Valve is one of the few companies that could get away with releasing a hit AAA game exclusively on a platform no-one owns. And it's clear to me that Valve sees Windows 8 as an existential threat to its business. SO I actually think this is a scenario worth discussing.

 

[Maximum Bert]

I really dont known why they would take the risk its not easy to get into the console market Nintendo and Sony had huge success at one point but no-one else has entered it so easily and ofc significant factors caused the success of the NES and PS.

Remember when Microsoft wanted in how many billions did they lose before they started making a profit? most companies cant bully their way in like that so Valve would need a hook and what is that hook exactly? because I havent heard it sorry but HL3 alone wont be it.

Valve have managed to carve a market for themselves on PC but I dont think they will find the console market so easy to crack.

Also many details are needed, personally I dont want valve to find success on consoles anyway as I dont want any one company to dominate gaming.

 

[Shadow-Phoenix]

I honestly can't see this making a massive impact on Sony let alone Nintendo but maybe on MS since they are in a bad spot.

Like Jeffers said who exactly is going to want to buy this?, PC only people will have rigs, I'm a Hybrid and I have a rig myself so most other Hybrids can be covered, which only leaves for a non brand loyalist type that hasn't decided or has more money to spend for such a device.

 

[KungFuJazzHands]

There's no way it's going to make anything but an insignificant dent in competing console sales.

For one thing, there's the fact that dedicated console gamers have no interest in buying a box that runs Linux and therefore has a very limited selection of AAA games to choose from. And with small form factor hardware, is the Steambox going to be able to take advantage of what really makes PC gaming superior to consoles -- hardware and graphical prowess? Why the hell would a console gamer want to spend money on a new product that doesn't do anything different from the ones he/she already owns?

For another thing, there's the PC crowd who already own PCs and who may already own an HTPC that's capable of doing everything the Steambox will allegedly be able to do. No one but the most dedicated Valve fanboys will be willing to drop the cash in order to get yet another system for their households. Then there's the small issue of Steam not allowing the same account to be logged in on different computers at the same time -- how are Valve going to handle that? Are they going to allow for a more open-ended account management system to allow for users to have their primary PC and their Steambox running the client concurrently? Given the paranoid control they exert over single-user accounts, I doubt they'll be changing anything in that regard.

Valve are just wasting massive amounts of money on this project, IMO. They need to go back to the basics that made them successful: making fresh games and improving the Steam client, two items they've been ignoring for far too long now.

 

[BrotherRool]

That said, I'm decidedly in the "not much will change" camp. I really don't see this impacting console sales. In fact, I see this making a bigger dent in PC sales, especially budget and mid-range prebuilt PCs.

Now, think about it this way. Most of the people who are paying attention to this are PC gamers to some extent. People who play exclusively on consoles, especially those that don't really pay attention to gaming news (which is most gamers in general), probably don't even know that Valve is announcing hardware, and even if they did, they probably wouldn't care.

So basically, I really don't see this having much of an effect on the console market.

I was thinking more and I agree you're right, this will either target PC gamers or it will carve out a new market, I can't see it eating console gamers at all. Is Titanfall going to be on it? No. Is CoD? Or Metal Gears Solid 5? Or FiFA? Or GTA? Or Halo? Or Gears of War? Or Uncharted? Or Assassins Creed? All the games console gamers are excited about are the sort of games that struggle to reach the PC market in the first place, never mind getting converted to Linux

And one of the real selling points of this is that it will already have lots of games from your Steam library ready to go. But that only affects people who already have a steam library built up.

And you're point about console gamers even knowing is huge too. This would be a terrible time to launch a console to compete with console gamers, after a good half a years headstart at making the public aware from Sony and Microsoft. 10 million people will already have bought a new console before this is even launched and all the console gamer narrative is going to be focused on exclusive titles

One of the potential scenarios I've heard is the idea that Valve could introduce Half-Life 3 exclusively on Steam Box to drive sales of the platform. Valve is one of the few companies that could get away with releasing a hit AAA game exclusively on a platform no-one owns. And it's clear to me that Valve sees Windows 8 as an existential threat to its business. SO I actually think this is a scenario worth discussing.

The thing is, Valve couldn't actually do that. Can you imagine how much hate they would garner? Far from selling their console it would actually make people want to leave Steam altogether. They're already walking this fine line of 'it's DRM but you love us right so thats okay?' and that line would be absolutely smashed if they released Half Life 3 as a console exclusive. Think about how much people complained about Left 4 Dead 2 and then imagine the orders of magnitude difference if they didn't release the most anticipated and delayed game ever on a platform people have.

There would be Valve effigies.


And then Valve headquarters literally getting mobbed aside, it destroys the one selling point of a Steambox. That you can play your PC games where you like when you feel like, on a computer or on your TV. Instead it would be a incredibly cruddy console with no real third-party support.

 

[kasperbbs]

It's hard to say since i know very little about this console, but if it's just a locked down PC with linux then i'm not interested. Even if they release HL3 exclusively on it, who's gonna buy a console for one title?

 

[Schmeiser]

I think not but then again, this is VALVE. They are smart and usually know what they are doing so i think they have a plan for dominance

 

[RicoADF]

With the mindshare Valve has built over the years, they probably have the best shot of anyone at introducing a viable console to compete with the Big Two.

The problem is whatever console they introduce will be based on Linux, so it will not benefit from the deep existing library that Steam on Windows enjoys. They'll basically be building their library from scratch.

Quite a few games are on Linux, so it wont be from scratch, but I agree that it will be missing alot of Windows only games like Call of Duty. Having said that, most publishers would quickly start releasing games on Linux if such a system came about, since PS3 is running on Linux doing a 'pc' version wouldn't be as complex as you might think.

 

[mad825]

Most console users aren't hardware geeks/nerds nor would people care too much about the price. In fact, most of them are loyal puppies who care about the brand and I would say the same about most Steam users. I'm making a general assumption btw but not one that could be proved dishonest.

 

[Yopaz]

Impossible to say without any more information than we currently have.

However given that it will be based on Linux we can say for sure that it will be an uphill battle in order to get enough compatible games to compete. If they can get a substantial amount of the Steam library to work then they will have the advantage of a decent library early on.

At this time anything could happen.

 

[Miss G.]

Most console users aren't hardware geeks/nerds.

Its quite true for me, tech specs and the like are a surefire way to make my eyes glaze over in boredom-induced daydreaming. I buy Nintendo & Sony because I grew up with them and they have my favorite games. Valve OTOH, I've never even heard of before coming to this site and if I haven't gained interest in them after learning about what they produce through all the threads that they're brought up in, I never willl.

 

[number2301]

My predictions -

The Steam Box is not a console, it will not affect the console market. It will instead be a smartly designed, reasonably powerful, small PC.

It will not be a locked down system, at the worst it will be a customised Linux distro.

Price point would be no less than £500.

Most importantly, and why they are announcing it, Valve have managed to do something fancy which will allow Windows games to run on it (and yes Play on Linux / Wine already exist, but I mean something you would actually want to use)

Hardware, I'm not sure, they could go for some custom layout, but I really hope not. Intel's NUC could come into play?

As for why you would buy it, have you tried building a media centre PC? You can go small enough to match a set top box with no power to run games, or powerful enough to run games but 2-4 times the size of a set top box. I expect you'd be looking at Alienware X51 size or similar for the Steambox.

 

[Adam Jensen_v1legacy]

It could affect consoles a lot. If the Steam Box has the ability to play all the games on Steam, it essentially comes with an already established library that both consoles will lack for years to come.

 

[Atmos Duality]

It won't make any difference. I doubt people would notice it much.
Mainly because I've already seen just how slow the game market is to adopt new platforms.
Unless it's new territory (like when Nintendo stepped in post crash in the 80s and ran a nasty monopoly, or the relatively new smartphone game market), the market generally doesn't change very quickly.

Valve is powerful and smart, but they've grown successful because they've shown foreward thinking.
PC was being snubbed by AAA for years. Fewer and fewer major publishers were willing to engage in it as a primary market, leaving Valve plenty of space to set up and capitalize.

That isn't the case with consoles.