Yes, 33% for you, and 50% for them (assuming they don't know what has happened up to this point and just believe that there are 2 doors with a car behind one of them)shadrath said:say all this happened and then another guest is brought in, they choose the one you picked. They would then have a 50% chance of having picked the right one> Would that panal has, at the same time, a 50% chance and a 33% chance of winning?artanis_neravar said:I can explain this, you have three doors right? and behind one is your winning whatever. so you pick one and you have a 33% chance that you are right and a 66% chance that you are wrong. now the host reveals one of the losing doors, however your chances do not change there is still a 33% chance that you have picked right and a 66% chance that you picked wrong (because the statistics do not change when a door is opened). Therefore switching is the right thing to doDango said:So let me look this over. There are three panels. I choose one, then I have the chance to choose a different one instead of choosing the one of I have. Since I still only have one panel, why aren't my chances are still 33%?Sgt. Sykes said:Wrong. You have 66% percent probability to get the car, if you select the OTHER panel. Seriously.Dango said:I'll stick to the panel I chose. Why would I have chosen that panel in the first place if I didn't think it was the right one?
Why?
Imagine you have not 3, but 10 panels. You select one. The other person reveals you 8 panels. Now, do you stick to the original one or switch to the one remaining? Of course you select the other one, because there's just 10% probability you chose the right one in the first place, but 90% that the car is behind the remaining one.
Same applies when there are just 3 panels.