I'll take that challenge and say that I do think Bob is wrong. I don't believe for a moment that they'll kill off Tony Stark.
For one thing he's still the most recognizable and popular character in the film, but more importantly, too much of the MCU relies on him and his technology to hand wave away logistic issues. With SHIELD gone you don't have any other high profile smart guys with unlimited resources to act as your go-to guy for super science chicanery.
That being said, I think Bob makes a good point and we're going to see an on screen hero death in War Machine.
It's pretty standard practice to kill off a named character to show how serious the threat is and there's not a lot of 2nd string heroes to sacrifice. At this point the only disposable heroes in the MCU are War Machine, Falcon and Hawkeye.
Falcon's already earmarked for Captain America 3 so that pretty much just leaves War Machine and Hawkeye.
Hawkeye's not important enough to any of the first tier Avengers to make for an important sacrifice so I think killing off Tony Stark's best friend is going to be the cementing factor for Stark getting his act together and straight up forming a super team.