Georgia and Russia on Brink of War
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Seems to me this is like Chechnya, only now the Georgians are the Russians.
I'd say give them a free state or let them join Russia if they so please, but usually there are economic or strategic needs that these regions fill, so the state cannot allow them to separate, for it will weaken them.
Typical thing though, when the shit started to hit the fan, who delivered all the messages? I only saw Putin. It's like they're not even trying to hide that the Russian president is a mere puppet.
I'd say give them a free state or let them join Russia if they so please, but usually there are economic or strategic needs that these regions fill, so the state cannot allow them to separate, for it will weaken them.
Typical thing though, when the shit started to hit the fan, who delivered all the messages? I only saw Putin. It's like they're not even trying to hide that the Russian president is a mere puppet.
For the most part, I agree with your analysis, but, sheesh...werepossum said:
Sure, being able to look at things from a wide-angle, politically cynical perspective is definitely a privilege of living in a "free country," one that many other people throughout the world don't enjoy. I don't see why it's a privilege we should rush to throw away, however.
Pretending that Saakashvili is an angel is no better than making up excuse for all of America's Cold-War "anti-communist" buddies (i.e. dictators and fascists). (EDIT: If you're not, then I'm preemptively sorry if I'm implying that you are.)
-- Alex
Except the world isn't backing Russia, and it didn't take decades to get this started like ET. Seriously, I think America and NATO are scared that the fighting will hit the pipline in Georgia.Lord Krunk said:
Certainly Saakashvili is not an angel - what politician is? He's been playing NATO off against the Russians and may yet draw us stumbling into World War 3 even if Russia doesn't want it. And he's trying to make Georgians of people who expressly do not want to be Georgians. But together with Yushchenko, Saakashvili stands virtually alone in the region in honestly trying to provide a better future for his citizens. Both countries lost a lot when the Soviet Union dissolved, and both countries are determined to make a better life as free countries rather than as Russian subject states, even if being Russian subject states paid better. I'm merely pointing out that Russia has engineered this present situation precisely for the present result - either absorbing Georgia whole, or making it a fractured puppet state taking orders from Russia. Under Shevardnadze Georgia was no more than a puppet state of Russia, with all the corruption that entails, and Saakashvili was the single unifying force that overthrew the corruption left behind. Now Russia intends to take Georgia back one way or another; this campaign started in 2003, when Shevardnadze was forced out, and Saakashvili has been maneuvering to keep Georgia free ever since. All the other core Soviet Union states face the same problem; even those states added during World War 2 have some of those problems. At the breakup of the Soviet Union, this wasn't an issue, because Russia was broke, fractured politically, had little ability to project its will beyond its borders, and was fighting a battle to preserve its own historic territory. Now Russia is flush with money from oil, natural gas, and a revamped economy, has beaten its own separatist provinces into submission for the moment, is united under the KGB leadership, and is looking to regain the power, prestige, and territory it gave up, and Georgia and Ukraine are first on the list. Having been a Russian possession for two hundred years, Georgia is understandably first on the list - and understandably reluctant to return to life as a Russian possession.Alex_P said:
Every nation has people who would rather be a separate nation or a part of some other nation. Canada faces that now, and the USA has famously faced that in the past and may face that again in the near future. And after nearly a century of Soviet rule, borders are difficult to set; the ethnic and religious make-up of historic Georgia is not that of present-day Georgia, and ethnic Russians are spread throughout the former empire. If South Ossetia wanted to be part of, say, Canada, it probably wouldn't be such a big deal to Georgia, but when a province wants to join together with your historical aggressor and breach your natural protection from it, it becomes a very big deal indeed. Same with Abkhazia, gives Russian forces a second front.
Georgia's wish to remain a sovereign state is Ossetia's wish to become a sovereign state writ large, with two important distinctions. First and most trivial, Ossetia has no history of being a sovereign state. The entire free world accepted the pre-Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact 1933 borders as valid. You can always argue which borders should be re-instated, but that marked the start of a period of rapid acquisition and was the United Nation's accepted point of return, and there was no Ossetia at that time, nor at any time does Ossetia emerge as a sovereign nation in the modern sense. Second and more important, Ossetia is not going to become a sovereign state. It has only 100,000 people, little financial means other than support from Russia, and no organization capability fro becoming a state. Russia has made no moves toward granting North Ossetia its freedom, and Russia is treating Ossetians (and Abkhazians) as Russian citizens, not as citizens of independent nations. Not a single nation recognizes either South Ossetia or Abkhazia; not even Russia, who purports to support their ascension to statehood, has formally recognized them.
South Ossetia faces a future of becoming a province of Russia valued only as a place through which to run pipelines and to control or launch attacks on Georgia, making periodic violent bids for freedom which are just as violently repressed. Make up your own mind as to whether it is morally better for South Ossetia to join Russia or to remain part of Georgia - I won't take a position on whether it is better to force 67,000 Ossetians to remain Georgians or to force 29,000 Georgians to become Russians - but please recognize that the rebellions in Georgia are financed and supported by Russia for Russia's own reasons. The war may have started for wikipedia when the Georgians began shelling Tskhinvali, but for Georgia it's been going on for quite some time.
CNN is reporting on this. Glenn Beck is talking about how Russia is an evil country going after Georgia for oil.
what i don't get is why everyone thinks Russia's a bad country seeing how they gave up communism about 15 years ago... from what I've been hearing the Georgians have been shelling the little villages escape routes and killing the peace negotiators or something... then again Wikipedia cant be trusted along with all the other news outlets.
In his own way, Putin's doing that, too. It's galling to Western leaders, but the man is legitimately well-liked in his own nation.werepossum said:
In a way, too, his hand is forced. The lingering presence of Bush-and-Reagan-era political thought in America means that the US is consistently approaching Russia as an enemy to be weakened and exploited. They want to get it over with and move on to China. He can't not act against US interests, just as Saakashvili can't not act against Russian influence in Ossetia.
I'm not trying to blame this all on American "conservatives," mind you. But as long as this political cycle reinforces itself, we're fucked. It's time to stop playing the game, and the US, as the player in the most privileged position, has to lead.
-- Alex
Everybody's been shelling everybody. It's a conflict that's been simmering for a good 15 years now. Think of it like an Israel/Palestine kind of thing. Who started the latest round of what is pretty much irrelevant, because both the Georgians and the Ossetians are trapped in a cycle they can't really control.Arcticwolf1 said:
It's true that Russia abandoned communism when the Soviet Union collapsed (though you could argue that the actual philosophy was abandoned much, much earlier), but many of the same people are in power. Yeltsin was president of the RSFSR [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Soviet_Federative_Socialist_Republic] before the collapse, for example; many of the politicians and "oligarchs" who came to power with him also had significant positions in the old hierarchy. Putin was a KGB agent, which pretty much speaks for itself.
-- Alex
The russians have deployed their tanks deep into georgia, and will now commence squashing Georgia like a bug beneath their Boot heel. They will then claim South Ossettia AND Georgia. Then the U.N. will let them keep both countries to avoid provoking the the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. (U.S.A. has most nukes that can be launched at a momments notice, Russia is like 100 behind, but they have a few thousand more total, not that they're going to get the chance to use all those in the event of a nuclear war.) And then the russians will seek more territory... then they'll eventually invade someone else who has nuclear capabilities... or Dubya will decide to start ANOTHER war before his final term in office ends. (The only reason Dubya is against the Russian invasion of Georgia is that he thinks that they're invading the state)
Russia gave up communism, but it's being run by the former KGB. There is a free press - as long as you don't anger the ruling class, in which case you're shut down if not murdered. There are free elections - but the ruling party gets to decide what parties and candidates can run, controls all media, and counts the votes. There are still regional governors, but they were appointed by Putin - regional elections are too hard to control and can give embarrassing results, so they were abolished. Not much has changed, really.Arcticwolf1 said:
There are no peace negotiators - you're probably thinking of peace keepers, which are Russian troops stationed in Georgia to make sure the Georgians don't shell the Ossetians. Ostensibly the Russian peacekeepers will also make sure the Ossetians don't shell the Georgians. Since the Ossetians themselves admit that most of their GDP comes from Russia, you can decide for yourself how impartially this is administered.
The Georgians probably are shelling village escape routes, but they didn't just up and decide "Today we is gonna kill us some Ossetians." This conflict has been in existence since the Soviet Union broke up, but it's been escalating rapidly since 2003 because Russia wants it to escalate. There are some analysts who believe Saakashvili began this round of shelling more for political concerns than for military concerns, even that he wanted Russia to invade. And they may well be right. But make no doubt, the rebellions in Georgia are more than minor simply because Russia funds them and supports them; without Russian money and arms, South Ossetia couldn't afford Chinese AK-47 knock-offs, much less artillery, and the minority Abkhazians could never dominate the majority Georgians in Abkhazia if not for Russian arms and Russian troops.
I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, but the USA quitting the game now means tens of millions more people living under the same repressive oligarchy as in the latter half of the 20th century - Europe has neither the forces nor the inclination to breast Russia. Sure they'll have capitalism, but what good is capitalism when the ruling oligarchy feels free to seize whatever they please? Well, it's still pretty good I guess, if you're used to the eternal shortages of communism. But I'd prefer capitalism with freedom. And I don't have a good handle on Putin's popularity, since there's no longer a free press.Alex_P said:
Also, if the USA quits the game and Russia doesn't, then World War 3 begins with an expanded Russian Empire allied with a nuclear Iran. The USA has been steadily disarming since Reagan, and since we always seem to be at our weakest when a major war breaks out, I fear that the expansionist Russia might win this round.
UPDATE: Russian troops are invading in army strength from Abkhazia as well as from South Ossetia, and Russian paratroopers and armor are reported in the Tbilisi regime. Seems everyone gravely underestimated the number of Russia "peacekeepers" Russia had packed into Abkhazia province. Russia has abandoned any pretense of protecting its "citizens" - armies and army groups don't move that fast without lengthy detailed advanced planning and pre-positioning of stocks. Georgia is toast, folks. If they are lucky, they'll be allowed a fraction of their country with a puppet regime under Russian control.
We are looking at either the start of World War 3, or the rebirth of the Russian Empire under KGB management.
G-d help us all.
We are looking at either the start of World War 3, or the rebirth of the Russian Empire under KGB management.
G-d help us all.
Wow, cold war slogan as it is, scary and stupid. Russian Federation isn't some invader from space to start WW 3, at the least because we still remember how everyone suffered from last World War (and Soviet Union especially).werepossum said:
As far as I can see, KGB now is something that western parents scare their children with like some Boogeyman. Of course there were no saints among them, but I doubt that there were any in every truly powerful anti-spy organization. KGB methods, as you imagine them, just won't work in today's world, all became much money-based and therefore much easier to control for government and the whole "blood-splattered dungeons of Kremlin where demonic KGB monsters torture innocent babies" thing is now just a joke. Yeah, and just a bit of mental pabulum - many (and I mean realy many) people in Russia, hell, in Ukraine too, miss old good "KGB" times, when discipline had meant something. For instance, about 25-30 years ago you could freely walk my city from one end to another at night with a child - not single one thug would attack you, now you won't make it out from first badly lighted block.
Russia is going to war with georgia because america is setting up anti-air missiles and anti-missiles missiles, around Russia in the smaller countries like georgia, in case Russia decides to launch nukes America can shoot them down, and now Bush is telling Russia to not go to war with Georgia like HE owns the goddam planet, dont get me wrong i love America, i just hate bush. well thats why.
But order musn't come fron domination. Russia has made laws giving "spy's" the right to kill, can't tell how they use that however.dart sifilis said:
If Russia had stoped at SO then I'd be cheering their name(not very loudly but still!). Insted they look like old Russia, or the new moron US.
Russia has "ended operations." [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7555858.stm]
Speaking of rebellious provinces and such, there was also fighting in the Phillipines [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7555584.stm] this weekend. According to estimates, that actually displaced more people than the fighting in Georgia.
-- Alex
Speaking of rebellious provinces and such, there was also fighting in the Phillipines [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7555584.stm] this weekend. According to estimates, that actually displaced more people than the fighting in Georgia.
-- Alex
im just watching the ticking clock of the Mayans. 2012, game over. Are we on track yet ?
yeah more wars, involving russia and it's potential nukes. US and its cowboy bravado.
well it was fun while it lasted.
yeah more wars, involving russia and it's potential nukes. US and its cowboy bravado.
well it was fun while it lasted.
I'm sorry but if they actually went to war, Russia has won, because of sheer size. And if it becomes a world war, the world would end in a single week because of nuclear bombs.