Human Extinction - How long can we survive?

[Da Orky Man]

If we don't blow ourselves up or die of plague or get a big giant rock landing over our heads or whatever within the next hundred years (I'd give P ~ 40% for that) then I'm going to repeat the words of Ponyville's premier pink party pony, Pinkie Pie, and pronounce proudly: "FOREVER!"

(For a given value of forever: We probably won't outlast baryonic matter, since we're made of that stuff, but it's basically the end of the universe by that point anyway, which is basically the end of time)

First, is this who I think it is?

Second, whether or not it is, check the link:

http://www.multivax.com/last_question.html

One of Isaac Asimov's favourite stories he wrote. It's worth a read.

 

[Sandytimeman]

As long as we develop space travel and colonization. We will stay ahead of the extinction. The end of the universe will happen some day, do to the universe either expanding out to stagnation or to a new big bang. But we can hold it off for as long as we can.

 

[Daystar Clarion]

The only thing stronger that human conflict is the human survival instinct.

We won't be going anywhere for a long, long time.

 

[pffh]

I give us a couple of hundred thousand more years if we stay on this planet. A couple of million if we colonize the solar system and if we manage to start colonizing other system we'll survive indefinitely.

 

[remnant_phoenix]

I'm gonna go with Yahtzee's theory.

Something along the lines of, "...realistic virtual sex will wipe out the human race in a single generation."

In all seriousness, as long as the earth remains habitable, the human race will likely be fine. Even if major civilization collapses, societies that have formed a symbiotic relationship with their environment and minimal use of technology (such as certain tribes that live in the Amazon rainforest) will be perfectly fine.

Short of a geothermonuclear war (or some such similar catastrophic event, whether man-made or naturally-occurring) that renders the planet uninhabitable by humans, the human species will continue to exist in some form. Now, "How long can advanced human civilization survive?" that's a trickier question.

 

[Abedeus]

I like the Doctor Who version.

Year 100 trillion, humanity still exists in the depths of space, while last black holes are dying.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Barring a nuclear winter, humans will be around for a long time. Depending on how well we treat or climate however, we'll have radically different standards of living.

Nuclear winter is a myth, spread by anti-nuclear types and journalists looking for sales.

in my opinion we will start loosing natural resources (pretty soon) and this will cause global warfare (to get to those resources). a good example is drinkable water. you may not think about it, but we are runing out of it. and its not a millino years in future or anything. its happening here and now. im glad my country sits on worlds 3rd biggest water resources. that measn we will get invaded by something like USA and have acess to water.

Lack of drinkable water isn't going to be the cause of large scale wars between world powers (though, it might start them, the same way Franz Ferdinand getting shot was the spark for WW1).

In many areas, lack of drinkable water may be a concern, and start small wars, but the surface of the planet is covered with salt water, and it's not that hard to turn salt water into fresh water. If it was, a world war wouldn't be able to happen, as naval forces have to produce their own fresh water this way anyway.

...

I don't see humanity dying out any time soon, without a really, really impressive disaster. Mere nuclear warfare wouldn't do it, it'd "only" kill off the odd billion and send civilisation back a few hundred years.

 

[Esotera]

Barring a nuclear winter, humans will be around for a long time. Depending on how well we treat or climate however, we'll have radically different standards of living.

Nuclear winter is a myth, spread by anti-nuclear types and journalists looking for sales.

Could you explain that a bit further? By nuclear winter I mean that the majority of the world's nukes are fired & successfully hit most places.

 

[MasterOfHisOwnDomain]

Something absolutely catastrophically apocalyptic would have to occur for us not to survive into the far, distant future. So long as Earth continues to support advanced lifeforms we will exist. And once we finally wean ourselves off oil, that should propel us into a bright future.

The law of accelerating returns should help us achieve sustainability before we incur some sort of permanent change in the Earth's atmosphere that pushes us towards wide-scale extinctions.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Barring a nuclear winter, humans will be around for a long time. Depending on how well we treat or climate however, we'll have radically different standards of living.

Nuclear winter is a myth, spread by anti-nuclear types and journalists looking for sales.

Could you explain that a bit further? By nuclear winter I mean that the majority of the world's nukes are fired & successfully hit most places.

Ah, well, "nuclear winter" is usually meant to mean during a full scale nuclear war, massive amounts of dust and debris is thrown into the atmosphere, obscuring the sun and causing temperatures to drop. This was put forward by Carl Sagan (and others) as part of his anti-nuclear stance.

The problem is, the model he used to get his results is rather unlike the real world. For example, it was a perfectyl featureless sphere, with no oceans or mountains. It also didn't have a day/night cycle caused by rotation, it was lit all over at all times by light at 1/3 daylight intensity.

If you just mean the successful use of all nuclear weapons, humanity would still survive...alot of people live in places that aren't worth targeting, and even those living in the dangerous regions have a chance of surviving, large numbers would survive. It'd be a very different world the day after, but the species would survive.

 

[Esotera]

Ah, well, "nuclear winter" is usually meant to mean during a full scale nuclear war, massive amounts of dust and debris is thrown into the atmosphere, obscuring the sun and causing temperatures to drop. This was put forward by Carl Sagan (and others) as part of his anti-nuclear stance.

The problem is, the model he used to get his results is rather unlike the real world. For example, it was a perfectyl featureless sphere, with no oceans or mountains. It also didn't have a day/night cycle caused by rotation, it was lit all over at all times by light at 1/3 daylight intensity.

If you just mean the successful use of all nuclear weapons, humanity would still survive...alot of people live in places that aren't worth targeting, and even those living in the dangerous regions have a chance of surviving, large numbers would survive. It'd be a very different world the day after, but the species would survive.

Well some of the species would probably survive initially, but the effect on ecosystems would be pretty devastating. I suppose we're probably resilient enough for at least some of us to survive pretty much anything.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Well some of the species would probably survive initially, but the effect on ecosystems would be pretty devastating. I suppose we're probably resilient enough for at least some of us to survive pretty much anything.

I don't think the effect on ecosystems would be that bad.

The amount of land directly affected by nuclear devices would be quite small, compared to the planet in general. Smaller, more precise weapons have replaced the older multi-megaton ones for various reasons.

Most of the targets aren't going to be in environmentally sensitive areas (or rather, the environment goes through upheaval by whatever justifies nuclear attack long before it occurs).

 

[ToxicOranges]

Could we survive after the depletion of all hydrogen atoms from the universe?

What? How are all the atoms going to leave? Surely matter cant be permanently destroyed?

 

[spartan231490]

Humans are the cockroaches of advanced life. It would be very difficult to exterminate us. I forsee our civilization collapsing for one reason or another within the next century, but our species will be around for a long time. Maybe forever.

 

[Jodah]

Could we survive after the depletion of all hydrogen atoms from the universe?

What? How are all the atoms going to leave? Surely matter cant be permanently destroyed?

How a star works 101: Stars convert Hydrogen into heavier elements, usually Helium. Thus, eventually, after trillions of years, all hydrogen would be gone.

Also there's the whole anti matter thing but that gets into some silly math and science that I don't feel like explaining since the star thing is more likely.

 

[IamLEAM1983]

We clearly have the potential to survive anything the Universe could potentially throw at us. We've got plenty of ways to survive, but all we're missing is the will to do so. NASA is a shade of its former self and the other space programs aren't much more than orbital janitors at present, with most of what's keeping us from developing safe and clean sources of energy and solve our food problems being plain and simple greed.

We'd need to change as a society and evolve our scientific approach in order to qualify for a Type 1 civilization and frankly, I doubt that will ever happen. It's a lot more easier to sit on our laurels and further the current models of material wealth and comfort for a small percentile of the populace, while the rest lives in abhorrent conditions.

So honestly, what's keeping us from reaching Mars and from going beyond that is our inability to advance past navel-gazing. We're already shrugging space travel off to some other time and everyone knows how the oil magnates are rather leery at anything that threatens their monopoly. They killed the electric car once, and they're realizing only now that they can't postpone that development forever.

Will we survive the end of the universe? That's impossible for anyone to tell with certainty, since this is so far off it's still in the realm of science fiction. I think the real question is if we're going to be able to survive our own conservatism and our unwillingness at making the choices that need to be made.

Unless the social tissue changes dramatically and for the better - and I don't have any alternative to suggest - I think we're dooming ourselves for the sake of immediate wealth and comfort.

Oh - and it doesn't help that a lot of idiots are thinking that scientific advancement really doesn't matter, seeing as the Afterlife fixes everything! Yay! My apologies if there's any Mormons or JWs on the site, but this type of reasoning seems pretty prevalent in those few examples of both faiths I've had the dubious pleasure of interacting with.

 

[Sunrider]

Until the end of 2012. Duh!

For realz though, forever, I suppose, if we actually stop being retarded and make it out to space soon.