In your opinion, what sci-fi story do you think will be the most accurate for our future?

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Fluffythepoo

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Aramis Night said:
Fluffythepoo said:
Kael Arawn said:
And yet the amount of damage a single person can do to this planet has seen an exponential increase over just the last few hundred years. How many men does it take to push the button now?

Besides i did mention a malthusian catastrophe which doesnt even require violence. All it takes is continued unchecked breading without the resources to suport the surplus population. Once we reach the tipping point, its a safe bet that those trends in violence will start reversing themselves pretty quick. Keep in mind that the current rate of exponential population growth can see this happening within our lifetimes. There are people still alive today from back when the world population was at half of what it is today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.svg
Data indicates resource deprivation is not a predominant casual factor in violence. IE population increase straining resources does not increase violence. Though this thread is about opinions, just rest assured that data indicates anything short of total nuclear war between nuclear nations (1 person setting off 1 bomb isnt enough) will result in the world being a much better place :)
Not sure why my quote was attributed to someone else in your post. But to your point above... You do realize that lack of resources is a pretty common reason for countries to go to war and that war is violent. Im not sure what data your refferring to, but i get the impression for whatever reason wartime acts didnt make it into your data sets. Since you show no actual data or links to your evidence im only able to guess at how you would have to sanitize so much of human violence by ommission to come to the incredibly optimistic belief that we are trending away from violence sufficiently.

Nuclear War is of course always a possibility. Though my position is that nuclear war may in fact make the world a better place if it succeeds in culling enough of the surplus population without destroying too much of the earths resources and land mass in the process. Seeing as how most nations with capable nukes and delivery systems tend to have them aimed at thier enemies major population centers would indicate that the powers that be see things in a similar light.

Unfortunately since we do seem to view breeding as a human right, even this would just be a stop gap measure that would buy us some time at best. China had the right idea with the 1 child policy but sadly didnt have the stomach to enforce it as much as they should have and now they have given up on it. Its no coincidence that they are struggling now to obtain enough resources to support thier population. China has always tried to be self sufficient. It is a shame that is no longer an option for them.
Yah i cut it wrong sorry :(

I do realize its a common misconception that war is fought over resources, one i used to share, but its just not supported by data. War is usually fought for surprisingly silly or mundane reasons. Things like i dont like communism so im gonna pop off to vietnam and kill me some communists, or we dont like you mailian villagers and your attempts at democracy, plus we have guns so we're going to just kill you.

Theres kind of an obscene amount of data on war, but id refer to the book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature
It provides excellent citation and a fairly concise and uplifting explanation as to why things are getting better.

Also you might be interested in http://overpopulationisamyth.com/ as a way of uplifting your outlook of the future :)
 

Silvianoshei

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Actually, Deus Ex: HR seems plausible. Pretty depressing, but there you have it.

I honestly doubt we'll find sentient alien life anytime soon. If we do, it will be like nothing we have ever imagined. The first life we find on another planet will likely be animal or microscopic.
 

Aramis Night

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HannesPascal said:
Aramis Night said:
Forgive me for not being familiar with your Jonathan Swift reference. My conclusions on breeding for food seemed like a natural conclusion of overpopulation where as the more of something you have, in this case people, the less value it will be seen to possess. Eventually as people becomes a resource plentiful in a world of little else, we will make use of the one resource we have left in any way we can.
He basically wrote a satire about pretty much that conclusion that the English should start eating babies because there were too many people in England and selling their babies to the rich would solve that problem and give the poor people an income.
I could see the point behind eating babies. But i suspect that by the time people are eating babies, curency wont be of much use to buy anything that one could eat if we were resorting to eating offspring. I would prefer to think of it like thanksgiving. Given the female gestation cycle, a once a year large meal seems realistic. Course in order for that to work out the male population would have to drop down considerably relative to the female population and polygamy would have to be the order of the day. A single male would have to keep a stable of women pregnant all the time to insure a steady food supply. Additional males would be a drain on resources since they can offer nothing more to increase food production that the intitial male wouldnt have already been able to accomplish by himself. Women would have to outnumber men at least 600 to 1 in order to be able to keep this going well enough for a group to survive without additional losses of population.

Practicality would also demand that the women be cannibalized and fed to thier group at menopause. Similar cannibalization would have to be practiced on men if for whatever reason they were unable to consistently keep women pregnant(ED, impotency, etc).
 

Aramis Night

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Fluffythepoo said:
Aramis Night said:
Fluffythepoo said:
Kael Arawn said:
And yet the amount of damage a single person can do to this planet has seen an exponential increase over just the last few hundred years. How many men does it take to push the button now?

Besides i did mention a malthusian catastrophe which doesnt even require violence. All it takes is continued unchecked breading without the resources to suport the surplus population. Once we reach the tipping point, its a safe bet that those trends in violence will start reversing themselves pretty quick. Keep in mind that the current rate of exponential population growth can see this happening within our lifetimes. There are people still alive today from back when the world population was at half of what it is today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.svg
Data indicates resource deprivation is not a predominant casual factor in violence. IE population increase straining resources does not increase violence. Though this thread is about opinions, just rest assured that data indicates anything short of total nuclear war between nuclear nations (1 person setting off 1 bomb isnt enough) will result in the world being a much better place :)
Not sure why my quote was attributed to someone else in your post. But to your point above... You do realize that lack of resources is a pretty common reason for countries to go to war and that war is violent. Im not sure what data your refferring to, but i get the impression for whatever reason wartime acts didnt make it into your data sets. Since you show no actual data or links to your evidence im only able to guess at how you would have to sanitize so much of human violence by ommission to come to the incredibly optimistic belief that we are trending away from violence sufficiently.

Nuclear War is of course always a possibility. Though my position is that nuclear war may in fact make the world a better place if it succeeds in culling enough of the surplus population without destroying too much of the earths resources and land mass in the process. Seeing as how most nations with capable nukes and delivery systems tend to have them aimed at thier enemies major population centers would indicate that the powers that be see things in a similar light.

Unfortunately since we do seem to view breeding as a human right, even this would just be a stop gap measure that would buy us some time at best. China had the right idea with the 1 child policy but sadly didnt have the stomach to enforce it as much as they should have and now they have given up on it. Its no coincidence that they are struggling now to obtain enough resources to support thier population. China has always tried to be self sufficient. It is a shame that is no longer an option for them.
Yah i cut it wrong sorry :(

I do realize its a common misconception that war is fought over resources, one i used to share, but its just not supported by data. War is usually fought for surprisingly silly or mundane reasons. Things like i dont like communism so im gonna pop off to vietnam and kill me some communists, or we dont like you mailian villagers and your attempts at democracy, plus we have guns so we're going to just kill you.

Theres kind of an obscene amount of data on war, but id refer to the book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature
It provides excellent citation and a fairly concise and uplifting explanation as to why things are getting better.

Also you might be interested in http://overpopulationisamyth.com/ as a way of uplifting your outlook of the future :)
I looked over your sources and the wikipedia article itself already went over my criticism's of The Better Angel's of Our Nature. It seems better people than myself have addressed his obvious biases in ways better expressed than i can here. As for overpopulationisamyth.com: i found it a little disingenuous when they have to switch to percentages when trying to make the claim that population figures are growing less as though gradual increase in population is not cause for concern. Even if we never added another single person, it only slows down the inevitable. Our way of life isnt sustainable as it is. Also overpopulation isnt a problem simply related to the amount of space we have on the planet. It is about finite resources that everyone needs that are not found everywhere but only in certain places. Things like fresh water for example.

People need to accept that thier life is going to be seen by thier grandkids the same way people in the dark age were envious about there ancestors who lived in Rome before it fell and technology jumped backwards a few hundred years. The age of your children having a better life than you, are coming to an end for most of us.
 

Fluffythepoo

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Aramis Night said:
Fluffythepoo said:
Aramis Night said:
Fluffythepoo said:
Kael Arawn said:
And yet the amount of damage a single person can do to this planet has seen an exponential increase over just the last few hundred years. How many men does it take to push the button now?

Besides i did mention a malthusian catastrophe which doesnt even require violence. All it takes is continued unchecked breading without the resources to suport the surplus population. Once we reach the tipping point, its a safe bet that those trends in violence will start reversing themselves pretty quick. Keep in mind that the current rate of exponential population growth can see this happening within our lifetimes. There are people still alive today from back when the world population was at half of what it is today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.svg
Data indicates resource deprivation is not a predominant casual factor in violence. IE population increase straining resources does not increase violence. Though this thread is about opinions, just rest assured that data indicates anything short of total nuclear war between nuclear nations (1 person setting off 1 bomb isnt enough) will result in the world being a much better place :)
Not sure why my quote was attributed to someone else in your post. But to your point above... You do realize that lack of resources is a pretty common reason for countries to go to war and that war is violent. Im not sure what data your refferring to, but i get the impression for whatever reason wartime acts didnt make it into your data sets. Since you show no actual data or links to your evidence im only able to guess at how you would have to sanitize so much of human violence by ommission to come to the incredibly optimistic belief that we are trending away from violence sufficiently.

Nuclear War is of course always a possibility. Though my position is that nuclear war may in fact make the world a better place if it succeeds in culling enough of the surplus population without destroying too much of the earths resources and land mass in the process. Seeing as how most nations with capable nukes and delivery systems tend to have them aimed at thier enemies major population centers would indicate that the powers that be see things in a similar light.

Unfortunately since we do seem to view breeding as a human right, even this would just be a stop gap measure that would buy us some time at best. China had the right idea with the 1 child policy but sadly didnt have the stomach to enforce it as much as they should have and now they have given up on it. Its no coincidence that they are struggling now to obtain enough resources to support thier population. China has always tried to be self sufficient. It is a shame that is no longer an option for them.
Yah i cut it wrong sorry :(

I do realize its a common misconception that war is fought over resources, one i used to share, but its just not supported by data. War is usually fought for surprisingly silly or mundane reasons. Things like i dont like communism so im gonna pop off to vietnam and kill me some communists, or we dont like you mailian villagers and your attempts at democracy, plus we have guns so we're going to just kill you.

Theres kind of an obscene amount of data on war, but id refer to the book:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature
It provides excellent citation and a fairly concise and uplifting explanation as to why things are getting better.

Also you might be interested in http://overpopulationisamyth.com/ as a way of uplifting your outlook of the future :)
I looked over your sources and the wikipedia article itself already went over my criticism's of The Better Angel's of Our Nature. It seems better people than myself have addressed his obvious biases in ways better expressed than i can here. As for overpopulationisamyth.com: i found it a little disingenuous when they have to switch to percentages when trying to make the claim that population figures are growing less as though gradual increase in population is not cause for concern. Even if we never added another single person, it only slows down the inevitable. Our way of life isnt sustainable as it is. Also overpopulation isnt a problem simply related to the amount of space we have on the planet. It is about finite resources that everyone needs that are not found everywhere but only in certain places. Things like fresh water for example.

People need to accept that thier life is going to be seen by thier grandkids the same way people in the dark age were envious about there ancestors who lived in Rome before it fell and technology jumped backwards a few hundred years. The age of your children having a better life than you, are coming to an end for most of us.
Well most of the criticisms of the book are already addressed in the book itself. They arent invalidated, but largely marginalized (again, id recommend reading the book). I mean not much you can do with theologians saying life is shit and you just don't understand, but if i had to pick sides in who doesnt actually understand im gonna pick a decorated Harvard professor, not some christian scholar

and yeah.. those issues regarding population were explained on the site. im not sure why you brought it up xD
 

HellbirdIV

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Metro 2033.

Everyone lives in caves and tunnels because eventually we just got sick of progress and blew ourselves up.
 

Terminate421

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Asclepion said:
J Tyran said:
In Halo firearms underwent evolution rather than revolution sure they still use chemical propellants but the guns are lighter, more reliable, the propellants are better. They still do the job, they killed covies just fine.

Why invent a fancy energy weapon when a kinetic kill round fired by chemical propellants is still effective? The UNSC does have its own WMDs too, planet killing nukes etc.
The halo ground weapons are worse than weapons we use today.

Halo uses a single shot, break-action grenade launcher (with an apparently useless HUD on top) with a range of about 30 meters.

We have multiple round grenade launchers with a range of about 300 meters, we have for decades, both in revolver style and box magazine automatic launchers. We even have belt fed automatic grenade launchers.

Halo uses a pump action shotgun with 6-12 rounds and a range of about 10 meters.

We have automatic shotguns with 32 round drums and a range of 70-100 meters.

To date, I have not seen a single Halo ODST, marine, or army trooper running around with a squad automatic weapon.
You realize that is for gameplay purposes right?

In ODST, the SMG and the pistol are the only weapons seen equipped with silencers, and sight modifiers of any sort. I think it's safe to say that the Halo guns are quite "realistic" in a sense.

Sure, we have weapon mods that add some crazy shit to guns, but remember, the Halo games are arena shooters, not tactical shooters.
 

Thistlehart

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I'm with the idealists on this. I'd hope for a Star Trek type future for humanity.

Realistically, though, I expect our future to look more like Escape from New York.
 

triggrhappy94

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Easy. Squid Girl. Next Question.

I kind of counting on Deus Ex happening at this point. Adam Jenkins (from HR), according to the lore, is only a year older than I am, and he's like 30 in the game. So... this kind of has to happen.

I think Fallout would be cool too.
But Squid Girl is clearly the best answer here.
 

The Task Master

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I think that it would be closer to the evil brain from outer space or invaders from mars. Maybe a mix of Frankenstein and I robot. Back to the Future 2 meets John Carpenter's The Thing yeah!
 

Shock and Awe

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I'm thinking Firefly is probably one of the closer ones culturally and technologically. Not the exact scenario you see in the show of course but it seems quite plausible compared to most of the sci-fi you see.
 

spartan231490

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mattttherman3 said:
I would sincerely hope, Star Trek. Warp Drive aside, what humanity does is great, replicators, no money(yes, there is Latinum, but Earth has no actual currency), people strive to better themselves instead of being selfish and all about money(looking at you oil companies and banks!!!!). Humanity has stopped fighting itself(in general). Also, it seems that God is RARELY mentioned outside of DS9, and that is quite an encouraging thought.
Hang on to that dream.

I very much doubt it will be like anything we've seen in sci fi. What I can say for certain, is that our military and medical technology will continue to grow at a rate drastically faster than our other forms of technology, and that the powerful will continue to dominate, subjugate, and take advantage of the weak. I think it's almost as inevitable that the wealth divide will continue to grow until the 99% are indentured serfs, locked into a lifetime of servitude to the aristocrats from the moment of their birth to the moment of their death.
 

CrystalShadow

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rodneyy said:
CrystalShadow said:
Vivi22 said:
mattttherman3 said:
I would sincerely hope, Star Trek. Warp Drive aside, what humanity does is great, replicators, no money(yes, there is Latinum, but Earth has no actual currency), people strive to better themselves instead of being selfish and all about money(looking at you oil companies and banks!!!!). Humanity has stopped fighting itself(in general). Also, it seems that God is RARELY mentioned outside of DS9, and that is quite an encouraging thought.
I agree with you. Though one thing that never bothered me as a child but has come to interest me now is the concept of there being no money in the Federation. It makes sense with respect to replicators to some degree since material goods lose a great deal of value when they can simply be replicated in seconds with no real labour or materials cost. But there are two questions which arise relating to it.

1) You can't replicate planets so how is land and living space allocated?
2) Replicators still require energy which is still a finite resource, though clearly much more plentiful, but should really have some method of rationing it.

Now I get it's a sci-fi TV show and they probably didn't have actual answers for sustainable systems which are fair that can accomplish this efficiently. It just boggles my mind lately since money is, despite its inherent problems, a pretty efficient and impartial way to allocate resources.

As for what future is actually most likely, probably something involving a massive ecological disaster. Looking at agriculture alone we're already well on our way, to say nothing of our growing use of oil (BP oil spill anyone). Frankly, I'll be surprised if we don't destroy our present civilization within 200-300 years. Accidentally or otherwise.
*snip*
1)they go out and teraform new planets, it might not be replicating them but its close. i always thought the houses were just allocated as you need them. if you want something bigger you ask for it and someone sees if your reason is good enough for a bigger living space.
2) they do have rationing of a sort it is just never showed how much each person gets. in an episode of ds9 sisko is back in his dads resteraunt and reminising about the old days and there is a line something like "in my first month at the academy i used up 6 months transporter rations coming back here every night" i think the numbers might be a little wrong but thats the gist of it. there was also talk of some form of mass transit when picard went home to visit his brother something about taking a shuttle form the village or something similar.

as too the land issues that crystalshadow brought up yes there are places that are not so nice deserts etc but as you see in the episodes set on risa there exsist very advanced weather controle systems. also when picard went home there was talk of raising the sea bed and using some fancy tech to reinforce the underside of the mantle i think giving it enough strenth to support new land mass.

as to the car arguments you made yes you could have cars that last a long time but wile some reselling of things is purley from a money pov there are others that are from a safetly pov. there was a bit on top gear a wile ago about how older cars, even only 5-6 years old, did compared to new cars in crash tests. so wile car companys do go out of their way to sell you the newset modle its not always out of avarice sometimes it comes coupled with things that help the driver and other road users stay safer.
i know its not exactly the point you were trying to make but just because you can make something to last a long time does not always mean that it will still be functional and safe by future standards.

sorry i didnt comment on all your points but as you said you did ramble a little in your post and i dont really have time to reply to everyhing. it was a good read though :)
Those are some good points though. It's a complicated subject. I mean, if we had all the answers to this already, we'd probably be using them for something. XD

With regard to rationing, it clear they ration some things. We can conclude perhaps from the nature of what seems to be getting rationed that it uses a lot of resources and/or energy to do it.

I think the main problem with Star Trek remains the fact that we see very little of civilian life, so we have little context for what life is like outside of starfleet.

But the transporter example is an interesting case:

We know transporters are convenient and fast for getting from one location to another.
But, we also know that on a planet, especially one with a large degree of infrastructure (like earth) there may be other means of transportation (be it trains - either conventional, maglev, anti-gravity, vacuum tube, whatever. - or shuttles/space hoppers) that can travel long distances in fairly short periods.
They'd be slower than transporters, sure, but the difference between taking several hours to get somewhere, or a couple of minutes might not always matter.

And if the energy used for a transporter is substantially more than the alternatives (even if energy use isn't a critical resource problem), then there may be rationing just for the sake of encouraging the use of more energy efficient methods.

Encouraging the use of less energy hungry means of transportation for instance, might be a good idea even if you technically have the resources to just ignore the issue.
Especially if your energy resources are very large, but not actually infinite.

As for vehicles... Yes, that's true. Part of the problem with older vehicles though is that because it costs money to get your car serviced, a lot of people don't have them maintained anywhere near as well as they would need to be to last a long time.

For instance, my parents often owned really old cars, and would often only get them checked for faults if something obvious was wrong. This can quite clearly miss all kinds of things.

Another example would be that trains are designed around having a life of about 30 years.
But this assumes constant maintenance of things such as the brakes, wheels, and suspension (in the case of high-speed trains, the checks often amount to minor checks on a daily basis, and major ones on a weekly one, and minor overhauls every couple of months. Compare that to what the owner of a private car does...)
Also, while designed for 30 years, you'd often find that the entire interior fittings, as well as the engines, electrical components (including interior components) and the like will be largely replaced after about 15 years.

But, as a point of comparison when arguing about efficiency, I can give some figures for the ICE 1...
A standard trainset consists of 2 power cars, and 12 intermediate cars.
The cost when purchased amounted to the following:
in deutschmarks - 8.7 million for a power car, 4 million for a dining car, 3 million for the service car (one per train), and 2.7 million for a normal car (there are 10 in a set), making the total cost for a brand new set 51.4 million deutschmark. - A fixed conversion to Euros was implemented when the currency was changed, setting the conversion rate at: DM 1.95583 = ?1

Which means the converted cost, ignoring inflation, of a single brand-new trainset would've been roughly ?26.3 million.

So, after 15 years, the trainsets were more or less worn out, but rather than replace them, they refurbished them. This cost ?3 million per set, or just slightly more than 10% the replacement cost (but that ignores about 15 years of potential inflation).
And that included replacing the bogie frames, and in 1/3 of the trains all the power conversion electronics, the interior wiring, replacing most of the interior fittings (and refurbishing the rest), the brake equipment in some of the trains, and refurbishing the motors.

The point being, that doing a major rebuild like this on a train is still substantially cheaper than replacing it.
I would assume there's no reason why the same wouldn't be true for cars, especially if they were built with it in mind.
 

dementis

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Neuromancer seems pretty likely to me, especially as a lot of the tech mentioned in the book is already on its way. I would say that would then lead into the Bladerunner era of hover vehicles and androids.
 

Akatsuki

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Seriously? Nobody's said Gundam yet?

In all it is pretty realistic. With space colony's and orbital elevators and various political and military moments occurring in a realistic scale.

Plus the giant robots are kind of a bous. I know I wouldn't mind getting my hands on one of them.

Wait!
It also shows us as humans nearly killing off each other several time, something entirely possible unfortunately
Also Gundam Seed and the natural vs coordinators; also very probable.
In all I predict most of us will die!
Good luck there...
 

SycoMantis91

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I think something like 1984 is kind of hard to argue with at this point. Though I'd prefer something more like Star Trek, Pokemon, etc.