I know a lot of you are already prepped to disagree with me. Some of you may even link the Atari with the video game crash around 1982 (or was it '83?). However, I don't think it's too far off a concept, though it may not be understood immediately.
Everyone knows that the Wii is selling big right now. Even Nintendo didn't expect this level of success. The hardcore gaming audience is eating it up, the casual gaming audience is absorbing it, and even the mainstream non-gamers are grabbing onto it. A lot of people believe Nintendo figured out how to reach out to the audience no other company could get to latch onto gaming. So, it can only go up from here, right?
I don't think so. Yes, the Wii is selling a lot, but five or six years down the line, will the Wii2 sell just as well? What happened when people that already had an Atari were told to go out and buy another newer, better console? Did they buy another one, or did they just keep what they had?
Now, the two systems cannot be completely compared, as in the late 70's and early 80's it was unheard of to buy a device only to replace it years later. Even the eight track and cassette tapes didn't end the existence of the record player, as people still kept those and would still buy their albums on records. You only bought a new car when it broke down and couldn't be repaired anymore. So why would you get rid of a perfectly good video game console?
Nowadays, we're replacing things constantly. You're swapping out that four or five year old computer for a new one. That iPod? Old news. Just get the new one with color and video. Why keep that old Playstation 2 when you could get the Playstation 3, Wii or Xbox 360?
Nonetheless, just because the culture and manner of technology has changed doesn't mean the mindsets of the people have. The Nintendo Wii has a lot of shovelware on it right now, including a lot of companies trying to just slap on random party games and other such tripe just to make a quick buck. However, I don't think they're getting nearly as much return. Not many of them, at least. If you look at the attach rate of games to the systems, Wii is trailing behind even the PS3, which has the least amount of good (exclusive) titles out. Could we perhaps take from this that, while a large number of systems are selling, a smaller number of software sales are?
Unfortunately, I seem to be horrible at searching for sales numbers for the past few months, because all I can find is that Xbox 360 won for September (which everyone knows the reason why). Nonetheless, even if you check the monthly top GameFly lists, you'll often see Xbox 360 games and their respected versions topping those of other consoles, and it isn't even unusual to see the Nintendo DS beating out the Wii. When it comes to software, the Wii only really climbs to the top when a title like Metroid Prime 3 or Super Paper Mario comes out, which is once in a blue moon compared to the Xbox 360, which has taken the PS2's place as having the greatest number of titles this console generation (I'd argue it has the largest variety as well, but I know many would disagree).
I guess by now I should be getting to the point, which is a lot of the mainstream market that is boosting the success of the Wii so high isn't going to be going out to buy many titles. Chances are, they bought the Wii because of the spectacle of it. It's the latest new thing. It's a change,a difference. It's something great to turn on when you have friends around...but that's it. That is also precisely what the Atari was to the same sort of people. It was the latest new thing. It was a change, a difference. It was something great to turn on when you have friends around. They bought it because of the spectacle of it...and after that, if they kept it around, they just tossed it over to their kids. Some stuck with the systems to become some of our older hardcore gamers, but for the most part, the Atari was more of a passing cultural phase.
When the next iteration of the Wii comes around, which I wouldn't be surprised if it comes around in four or five years, I imagine that the majority of the mainstream market that grabbed the Wii is going to snub the Wii 2 for one simple reason: "I already enjoy my Wii enough, I don't see why I should get another one". The same reason they didn't move on past the Atari, and the very same reason they still have that old, black and white iPod, only replacing it with a new one once the old one breaks.
The saddest part is, a lot of hardcore gamers feel as if Nintendo is leaving them in the dust to favor this very same mainstream market. Personally, I feel that the focus on party and casual games may eventually die down, but then again, it may not. A lot of developers feel as if Nintendo made a mistake by keeping the Wii's power so weak, as it cannot handle the same physics, A.I. and other processing technologies that the Xbox 360 and PS3 can. In the end, the gamers go where the games are unless you're a die hard fan, which is why the Xbox did so poorly yet the Xbox 360 is kicking the crap out of the PS3. If the developers discover that they can't buy the mainstream appeal on the Wii and can't get the hardcore appeal either, they'll retreat back to Microsoft.
So, if the next Wii is snubbed by both hardcore and mainstream, then...well, then Nintendo's success was short lived, wasn't it?
Everyone knows that the Wii is selling big right now. Even Nintendo didn't expect this level of success. The hardcore gaming audience is eating it up, the casual gaming audience is absorbing it, and even the mainstream non-gamers are grabbing onto it. A lot of people believe Nintendo figured out how to reach out to the audience no other company could get to latch onto gaming. So, it can only go up from here, right?
I don't think so. Yes, the Wii is selling a lot, but five or six years down the line, will the Wii2 sell just as well? What happened when people that already had an Atari were told to go out and buy another newer, better console? Did they buy another one, or did they just keep what they had?
Now, the two systems cannot be completely compared, as in the late 70's and early 80's it was unheard of to buy a device only to replace it years later. Even the eight track and cassette tapes didn't end the existence of the record player, as people still kept those and would still buy their albums on records. You only bought a new car when it broke down and couldn't be repaired anymore. So why would you get rid of a perfectly good video game console?
Nowadays, we're replacing things constantly. You're swapping out that four or five year old computer for a new one. That iPod? Old news. Just get the new one with color and video. Why keep that old Playstation 2 when you could get the Playstation 3, Wii or Xbox 360?
Nonetheless, just because the culture and manner of technology has changed doesn't mean the mindsets of the people have. The Nintendo Wii has a lot of shovelware on it right now, including a lot of companies trying to just slap on random party games and other such tripe just to make a quick buck. However, I don't think they're getting nearly as much return. Not many of them, at least. If you look at the attach rate of games to the systems, Wii is trailing behind even the PS3, which has the least amount of good (exclusive) titles out. Could we perhaps take from this that, while a large number of systems are selling, a smaller number of software sales are?
Unfortunately, I seem to be horrible at searching for sales numbers for the past few months, because all I can find is that Xbox 360 won for September (which everyone knows the reason why). Nonetheless, even if you check the monthly top GameFly lists, you'll often see Xbox 360 games and their respected versions topping those of other consoles, and it isn't even unusual to see the Nintendo DS beating out the Wii. When it comes to software, the Wii only really climbs to the top when a title like Metroid Prime 3 or Super Paper Mario comes out, which is once in a blue moon compared to the Xbox 360, which has taken the PS2's place as having the greatest number of titles this console generation (I'd argue it has the largest variety as well, but I know many would disagree).
I guess by now I should be getting to the point, which is a lot of the mainstream market that is boosting the success of the Wii so high isn't going to be going out to buy many titles. Chances are, they bought the Wii because of the spectacle of it. It's the latest new thing. It's a change,a difference. It's something great to turn on when you have friends around...but that's it. That is also precisely what the Atari was to the same sort of people. It was the latest new thing. It was a change, a difference. It was something great to turn on when you have friends around. They bought it because of the spectacle of it...and after that, if they kept it around, they just tossed it over to their kids. Some stuck with the systems to become some of our older hardcore gamers, but for the most part, the Atari was more of a passing cultural phase.
When the next iteration of the Wii comes around, which I wouldn't be surprised if it comes around in four or five years, I imagine that the majority of the mainstream market that grabbed the Wii is going to snub the Wii 2 for one simple reason: "I already enjoy my Wii enough, I don't see why I should get another one". The same reason they didn't move on past the Atari, and the very same reason they still have that old, black and white iPod, only replacing it with a new one once the old one breaks.
The saddest part is, a lot of hardcore gamers feel as if Nintendo is leaving them in the dust to favor this very same mainstream market. Personally, I feel that the focus on party and casual games may eventually die down, but then again, it may not. A lot of developers feel as if Nintendo made a mistake by keeping the Wii's power so weak, as it cannot handle the same physics, A.I. and other processing technologies that the Xbox 360 and PS3 can. In the end, the gamers go where the games are unless you're a die hard fan, which is why the Xbox did so poorly yet the Xbox 360 is kicking the crap out of the PS3. If the developers discover that they can't buy the mainstream appeal on the Wii and can't get the hardcore appeal either, they'll retreat back to Microsoft.
So, if the next Wii is snubbed by both hardcore and mainstream, then...well, then Nintendo's success was short lived, wasn't it?
