Is Wii the Next Atari?

[slapme7times]

well... i'd simply compare the game sales to the console sales...

you'd think a console that's sold out for nearly a year straight would have massive software sales correlating with the hardware sales, but it doesn't.

the best selling wii game is wii play, which is really just another controller... it's not even a game. wii play beat out metroid prime 3 corruption, a nintendo/retro title...

the people who are buying the wii aren't gamers... they're consumers who are interested in a product with alot of hype.

it used to be that nintendo games were the only games to sell or make profit on a nintendo system, but now even nintendo is struggling to sell it's own games...

this is because the wii is a gamecube with motion controls and a light gun. once you've played around with the new controller, gotten bored with it, all you have left is a gamecube....

I just don't think that the 'blue ocean' theory is working when it comes to convincing non gamers to buy video games. it's just convincing non gamers to buy an exciting gaming console...

it reminds me of my mom who bought an ipod, even though she doesn't own or listen to music, and she doesn't buy music off itunes, and she hasn't started buying itunes music since buying and ipod...

Simply put, i don't think the wii is technologically capable of producing games any more compelling than they were on the gamecube, and i don't think that non gamers who are buying the wii have become sold on the idea of purchasing and playing games themselves... they're just interested in the wii itself, just like my mom, who was interested in the ipod itself, not the music.

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

Lex Darko
I have found that my tastes have evolved beyond 20$ thrill ride games that sale for 50$.
Sorry but graphics have lead the industry astray for too long I will never again buy into any juvenal hype MS and sony spew, at least I know where nin is going down the path of moderation..and party games LOL

But really they all are suffering from their gimmicks still and we have yet to see a truly great next gen title outside of maybe Dead Raising if not just because its a new/rare game type that worked, Gears is good but its not that ......mmm....... "fresh" .

ccesarano
My point with the 360 is the hardware issues are still prevalent(the enwest revision jasper will be out in a year with the 65nm gpu,it still overheats and eats discs) and that for 350+ there should be no hardware issues, sorry MS is pulling one over on the consumer, if they want to sell a cheaply built product do it at a cheaper price. I will not spend a moment in downtime or most moeny on shipping for a costly product ain't going to happen.

Also the the 360 has a mismatch of hardware the HDD no HDD,locked HDD ontop of build issues and coming game size issues these all add up to he 360 being abotu 100 cheaper than its going for.

 

[TheDarkArchon]

To answer the original question: Only if Nintendo screw up next time round. I wouldn't put it past them, mind you. *coughN64cough*

 

[ZippyDSMlee]

To answer the original question: Only if Nintendo screw up next time round. I wouldn't put it past them, mind you. *coughN64cough*

the N64 did well enough, there are reasons for the format choice as well , sony is almost making the same mistake only in the opposite direction LOL

 

[Arbre]

Lex Darko
I have found that my tastes have evolved beyond 20$ thrill ride games that sale for 50$.
Sorry but graphics have lead the industry astray for too long I will never again buy into any juvenal hype MS and sony spew, at least I know where nin is going down the path of moderation..and party games LOL

But really they all are suffering from their gimmicks still and we have yet to see a truly great next gen title outside of maybe Dead Raising if not just because its a new/rare game type that worked, Gears is good but its not that ......mmm....... "fresh" .

I don't think a super hit needs to be fresh or/and original.
A few ideas can be new. The way certain elements are added can be different.
But having a whole game tagged as original before it can be considered very good, huh, no.
There is no shame in using the same old receipe, just as long as the final result is great.

See, for example, God of War. Beyond the assumed gore and sex, great FMV, globally what you get is a beat'em all that's terrific, yet extremely classical. You get a bit of contextual DDR stuff, but that's pretty much it.

Now, I can understand the cynicism. Capcom decides to resurrect Bionic Commando. Ahem.

 

[bue519]

AND THEN THE PC GAMERS WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD MUAHAHAHAHAHA! But seriously we will. Also people need to calm down about this video game war. In the end only the best consle will be able to stand and well sit down and eat some cake.

 

[TheDarkArchon]

To answer the original question: Only if Nintendo screw up next time round. I wouldn't put it past them, mind you. *coughN64cough*

the N64 did well enough.

I would disagree on that: The N64 was pretty much a disaster: Nintendo lost it's first place in sales it held for two generations to a new comer and the only reasons it didn't sink to third place are OoT, Rare and the fact that Sega did even worse in the same generation.

 

[Russ Pitts]

AND THEN THE PC GAMERS WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD MUAHAHAHAHAHA! But seriously we will. Also people need to calm down about this video game war. In the end only the best consle will be able to stand and well sit down and eat some cake.

I agree that it's a situation that often gets taken too seriously, but as the owner of multiple consoles I'm aware that my apathy is a luxury most folks can't afford.

I remember the bleak days when, as a Dreamcast owner, I was suddenly unable to find any games in stores and realized I'd chosen the wrong horse in that race. At that point I couldn't really afford a second console, so I was screwed. That's not a good feeling, and understanding that goes a long way toward explaining why folks take the console wars so seriously.

 

[Joe]

I would disagree on that: The N64 was pretty much a disaster: Nintendo lost it's first place in sales it held for two generations to a new comer and the only reasons it didn't sink to third place are OoT, Rare and the fact that Sega did even worse in the same generation.

That really wasn't a result of the console not being good, though (it was great). It had more to do with Nintendo's draconian licensing policies, as well as their decision to stick with cartridges so they could charge third-party developers and publishers whatever they wanted for the media. And when you were the only game in town, that's a great set-up. The problem is Sony went with a broadly available medium, the CD, and wooed away developers tired of paying Nintendo for the privilege of making Nintendo games.

If an upstart were to come along in the hand-held world and offer a similar experience to the DS using cheaper storage media for the games, you could expect a number of developers to head in that direction, too. Lucky for Nintendo, Sony was dumb and tried pushing their own proprietary UMD format.

More on topic, I don't really see the Wii as the next Atari, if only because Nintendo can stop supporting the Wii tomorrow and still have a gigantic pile of money to make something else, or just give up on consoles and focus entirely on the hand-held market. The games:console ratio is a bit telling, yeah, but that doesn't worry me too much, mostly because it takes a while for developers to figure out any new console, and the motion sensing makes it even worse. I think being worried that Wii Play outsold Metroid Prime is kinda silly, though, mostly because Metroid isn't big outside old-school Nintendo gamer circles, and Wii Play is really, really fun. Wait for the Resident Evil game to get going, especially with the zapper, and we'll go from there. It has mass-market appeal and tactile device with which you can shoot zombies. If that doesn't sell, my Chicken Little acorn may get a bit bigger.

 

[ccesarano]

AND THEN THE PC GAMERS WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD MUAHAHAHAHAHA! But seriously we will. Also people need to calm down about this video game war. In the end only the best consle will be able to stand and well sit down and eat some cake.

Firstly, this isn't really anything about the console wars. It's more just a sort of analysis of the current situation. I look at Wii being the king at the moment, but in the future...maybe not so much.

Also, unless PC gamers can figure out how to make machines that can always run games on $600 machines with little issues concerning driver updates etc. etc., then they'll never take over the world.

 

[Arbre]

AND THEN THE PC GAMERS WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD MUAHAHAHAHAHA! But seriously we will. Also people need to calm down about this video game war. In the end only the best consle will be able to stand and well sit down and eat some cake.

I agree that it's a situation that often gets taken too seriously, but as the owner of multiple consoles I'm aware that my apathy is a luxury most folks can't afford.

I remember the bleak days when, as a Dreamcast owner, I was suddenly unable to find any games in stores and realized I'd chosen the wrong horse in that race. At that point I couldn't really afford a second console, so I was screwed. That's not a good feeling, and understanding that goes a long way toward explaining why folks take the console wars so seriously.

Taken seriously... quite a minority have behaved that way on this forum, as far as I can tell.
There is just nothing wrong in talking about consoles, their flaws, achievements, have predictions, comparing them and so on.

Really, if there's one person who might want to calm down, it could very well be bue519.

 

[shadow skill]

I don't know sure the Wii is a fad but isn't the 360 as well? The Wii has the potential to do a great deal of interesting things as do all three consoles. I think the real questions are do developers have the balls to go ahead and do the things that need to be done, do the manufacturers have the balls to do what needs to be done to help their product kick ass whether its giving people dedicated servers for a decent fee (No Im not above paying as long as it covers all games.)and stop punching your customers in the face, or finally get their pr department to stfu when it comes to why this unit came out. What Nintendo needs to do is make sure that games like Manhunt 2 don't get AOed in all likelyhood because the powers that be were upset that a game like that was going the Wii at all. It's odd that the shooterbox with big tough manly games like Gears can have games like Kameo (Make more of these MS!) and slowstart 3 can have games like Folklore or Ratchet and Clank or the up and coming Little Big Planet along side other big tough manly games like Resistance, Haze, COD4 etc.

What does this tell us? Any of the other two consoles could annihilate the Wii in about 3 seconds in terms of software IF Sony/MS simply started asking for/developing the types of games that happen to be on the Wii.

 

[Keljeck]

It is fallacious to compare Wii to the Atari 2600. The problems Atari had are not the problems the Wii are having now, if we are to agree it has problems. You begin with the assumption that Atari failed because the people who purchased an Atari did not feel fit to move on, that is false. Atari failed for a myriad of reasons and being a cultural phenomenon, or a "fad", wasn't one of them. There are two foundational reasons for the Atari's demise.

1. Warner Brothers did not hold the patent for the system, Magnavox did.
2. Warner Brothers refused to make a new game console until the Colecovision and Intellvision and all of the other visions came out. By the time the Atari 5200 was in stores it was a rushed job, and inferior compared to its competitors.

But let's focus on number one, because that is most important. The Patent was actually held by Magnavox for their Odyssey console. The Atari was a sublicensee. Atari paid for the patent, and Magnavox did all of the lawsuits. This had many repercussions. First of all Atari never gave credit to their game designers. All games were credited to Atari, this of course made many game designers and programmers mad. Atari's excuse was that if they let out the names people would hire up their people. Instead, members of Atari quit. Most famously creating Activision. This caused problems on two fronts. First of all it meant competition on their own console, and they couldn't make any money from the sales because the liscencer was Magnavox, not Atari. Second of all more of their good programmers exited the company so first party games had a noticeable dip in quality. (I hope I got the lawsuit part right, I know that somehow Atari couldn't make money off of third parties and there was nothing they could do about it.)

Nintendo makes money off of every game sold on their system, and a full profit off of their quality first party games which are generally well praised and tremendous sellers. Even in the days of the N64 and Gamecube Nintendo made profits for this reason. If the Wii had failed, they would have had the reserves to try again. Nintendo is positively flushed with cash.

Warner saw no reason to make a new console for the reasons you stated. Problem was, when the new and more powerful systems came out people bought them, and they bought more of them than they bought Atari 5200's, or Atari 2600's. Why? Because you could play Atari games on those systems with a special add on (even before Atari made one for their own system), and legally there was nothing Atari could do about it.

Can you play Mario on the PS3? Nintendo is not in such danger. If anything their competitors will simply learn from the Blue Ocean strategy. Something they show no signs of.

So as more people flooded the market, and crappy games were made for all systems, the PC came out and crashed the video game market. Nintendo picked up the pieces, and sold more systems than Atari did the first time around. With the same strategy they're using now. Difference is they are in a larger, and uncrashed, market. It is clear that Nintendo will not cause a video game crash, as you said. But I don't think Nintendo's going to die out. Even in a half life the Nintendo business model is sustainable. SEGA bowed out because they couldn't turn a profit. Even the Gamecube made a ton of money.

Now as for fears that Wii is a fad and will lose its luster, I don't see that. It all depends on the games, Nintendo can deliver the goods alone, we are finally seeing some great games and there are already reports of companies dropping off of the Sony bandwagon to get some cash off of Wii. The question is not whether Nintendo can survive this generation, the question is if they can maintain the hype into the next. And I honestly don't know that since the Nintendo of today is not Yamauchi's Nintendo.

Though I think I will be able to answer that once the DS-2 comes out.

 

[Chilango2]

A larger issue between why the Wii and Atari are not similar is that the 82 videogame crash relied on a number of collective factors that quite simply don't exist.

The above post mentioned part of the legal troubles Atari had, but another core problem was that Atari quite simply lost control over the development of games on their own console, something no console developer has allowed since for good reason. That loss of control meant that everyone and their brother tried to create games for the console and alot of trash was created, making the the value of the system seem less. Additionally, the video game market was much more immature both economically and in many other terms, than it is now. The 82 crash was, in essence, the result of a speculative bubble based on the belief that the Atari and games for the Atari would sell alot more than they actually did based on no good reason.

By comparison, the Wii has actually been flying of the shelves, causing supply problems that continue to this day, and its console base is already larger and has more "depth" than anything Atari could conceive of. I'm not saying the Wii will "win" the console war or be all conquering, or not have difficulties, but clearly something like the console crash of 82 is not the making (if anything is heading there, it's the MMO market..) Furthermore, videogame sales are being fueled by a console sales (i.e a known demand) as opposed to the other way around, which was part of the core of the 82 game crash, there, many games, including the infamous ET, were created in such numbers that there were more games than actual consoles which had sold, based on the idea that the existence of the game would spur console sales. In short, Atari's failures where do to structural, legal, and marketing failures which future console makers would not repeat, and Ninetendo has not repeated, and thus the conditions that lead to Atari's failure and the 82 game crash are not bound for a repeat. (Instead, the console makers have found *other* ways to screw up, such as the mistakes Nintendo made with the Gamecube, and some interrelated mistakes that Sony has made in regards to their current difficulties with the PS3)

 

[shadow skill]

You know reading up on the history of the crash I am wondering if the industry as a whole is not heading for at least a genre crash of sorts. It seems like this generation of consoles is inundated with shooters, specifically First-person shooters. Between November and early 2008 many of the major titles being released fall into this category. It will be interesting to see what happens when people finally tire of the first person shooter. Microsoft's whole problem in Japan has been the disgusting amount of shooters that the console has. There are not enough price cuts that can sell that system when you have yet to make any games that appeal to that market. The Xbox brand is Halo which is a shooter, when people think of Xbox they think of Halo which means that people think of first person shooters when they think of the Xbox.

The other consoles do not have this problem although the Wii does have the "for kids" image issue.

 

[ccesarano]

The input you guys have given is fantastic. However, as stated before, I don't mean to compare the Wii and Atari precisely. If I did then I'd be quite the fool. Nonetheless, the viewpoints here are excellent, and it has convinced me to post this as an editorial on Wii60...where I shall likely be met by less educated reactions, but oh well.

Thanks for all the great input and discussion, guys.

 

[Chilango2]

I'm pretty sure it was understood by most of the people who replied that you weren't saying that the Wii was *precisely* like the Atari 2500. Instead, they (and myself) ran through just about any point of comparison possible (including some you mentioned) and concluded that the two consoles had basically no similarities that would suggest they might share a vaguely similar fate.

In other words, the Wii migth fail, or it might not, the Wii2, or whatever they choose to call it, might fail, or might not, the videogame market might crash, it might not, but it will not do so in a manner or pattern that at all resembles Atari, making a comparison moot.

By comparison, let's argue that the PS3 has failed (or will fail), you have a failed console that is the ancestor of a very successful previous console. If this were the case, then a more relevant question for what the scenario you are trying to draw is "Will the Wii2 be the next PS3?" Or perhaps "the next Dreamcast" or, hell, the next Gamecube, in terms of sales. Each of those comparisons (while imperfect) are more informative than Atari. I could also argue as to why I believe (although I cannot, naturally, know for sure) why none of the above will come to pass either.

 

[ccesarano]

Very good, then. All good points.

 

[slapme7times]

To answer the original question: Only if Nintendo screw up next time round. I wouldn't put it past them, mind you. *coughN64cough*

only 30 million units, and cartridges scared off 3rd party developers...

but my god...

the n64 has some of the best games of all time.

ocarina of time
majora's mask
golden eye
perfect dark
banjo kazooie
banjo toowie
super smash bros.
super mario 64
starfox 64

- i mean, the analog stick, the rumble pak? c'mon, the n64 was badass incarnate!

i miss the old days! twilight princess and metroid prime 3 sucked!

 

[slapme7times]

I don't know sure the Wii is a fad but isn't the 360 as well? The Wii has the potential to do a great deal of interesting things as do all three consoles. I think the real questions are do developers have the balls to go ahead and do the things that need to be done, do the manufacturers have the balls to do what needs to be done to help their product kick ass whether its giving people dedicated servers for a decent fee (No Im not above paying as long as it covers all games.)and stop punching your customers in the face, or finally get their pr department to stfu when it comes to why this unit came out. What Nintendo needs to do is make sure that games like Manhunt 2 don't get AOed in all likelyhood because the powers that be were upset that a game like that was going the Wii at all. It's odd that the shooterbox with big tough manly games like Gears can have games like Kameo (Make more of these MS!) and slowstart 3 can have games like Folklore or Ratchet and Clank or the up and coming Little Big Planet along side other big tough manly games like Resistance, Haze, COD4 etc.

What does this tell us? Any of the other two consoles could annihilate the Wii in about 3 seconds in terms of software IF Sony/MS simply started asking for/developing the types of games that happen to be on the Wii.

the online integration of the 360 is revolutionary...

it's one friendlist for every single game, with voice chat support it all games, with free headsets passed out with every console to make sure everyone has one, with a universal message and voice message system that's all stored on microsoft's servers so that you can send people messages even when they're off-line, a game match invite system that works even when other players are in game, an achievement system....

the reason the 360 has such a high amount of games sold per console is due to XBL and the social interactivity it brings... when you check your friends list and see what games other people are playing, it tempts you to buy and play that game...

i mean... XBL really is the future of videogaming... and i don't think the wii pointer is as innovative as the rumblepak and rejuvenation of the joystick were with the n64...