Market up almost 500 points today---is the economy coming back from the dead?

[SimuLord]

Dow Jones Industrial Average is back up to 7775.86 and up almost 20% from the low it hit at the beginning of the month. The government's stepping in to buy toxic assets and get them off the banks' balance sheets, and housing sales were up for the first time in ages last month.

So what does everyone here think? Is March 10th (the date the rally started) going to be marked as the day the recovery kicked off or is this just a dead-cat bounce and we'll all be back in the misery pit by this time next month?

 

[Ken Korda]

It seems unlikely. Pretty much all the media in Europe are still predicting economic contraction this year. However, this could the delayed result of events from last year. You never know I suppose, maybe this growth in the market will just take a year to emerge as GDP growth as it has to make up for all the capital which has been lost so far.

We'll have to wait and see whether this trend continues or as you suggested, if it's just a temporary anomaly.

 

[RetiarySword]

Yea they predicted it to stabalize by 1st quarter next year.

 

[Shugaazer]

From what I understand, back in the late twenties, the markes had gone up and down notably about a dozen times before the big crash.

Plus, in the late spring, Option ARM mortgages will begin to reset, which may cause quite a few issues as their holders try to grapple with 80 - 200% increases in monthly payments.

 

[Dele]

Typical temporary recoil rally in bear market.

In simpler terms: Snowball's chance in hell.

 

[CapnGod]

One or two day swings, while hopeful, lately have done nothing in the way of predicting anything. Trends, well, there haven't really been any trends other than down. Although, all of my stocks were up today. Too bad it's not real money.

When the market starts climbing and stays on course and people start going back to work or spending more, well, then we'll see. It's just too damned early to start making calls like that.

 

[SimuLord]

One or two day swings, while hopeful, lately have done nothing in the way of predicting anything. Trends, well, there haven't really been any trends other than down. Although, all of my stocks were up today. Too bad it's not real money.

When the market starts climbing and stays on course and people start going back to work or spending more, well, then we'll see. It's just too damned early to start making calls like that.

My portfolio (including some well-timed sales) is actually down only 5%. I should be going on CNBC and yelling about how my investment strategy beat the market by 35 percentage points, since I'm apparently at least as credible as Jim Cramer.

 

[Abedeus]

Polish currency is getting stronger, that's what I'm happy about.

EUR is no longer 5 PLN - it's 4.5 now. Same goes for the Dollar - 3.36 instead of 4.

 

[Jerious1154]

It's just an initial response to Obama announcing his bank rescue plan- it doesn't really mean anything.

 

[CapnGod]

One or two day swings, while hopeful, lately have done nothing in the way of predicting anything. Trends, well, there haven't really been any trends other than down. Although, all of my stocks were up today. Too bad it's not real money.

When the market starts climbing and stays on course and people start going back to work or spending more, well, then we'll see. It's just too damned early to start making calls like that.

My portfolio (including some well-timed sales) is actually down only 5%. I should be going on CNBC and yelling about how my investment strategy beat the market by 35 percentage points, since I'm apparently at least as credible as Jim Cramer.

Mine's not real money, though. It's on UpDown. Wish it was. Made $40k today.

 

[SimuLord]

One or two day swings, while hopeful, lately have done nothing in the way of predicting anything. Trends, well, there haven't really been any trends other than down. Although, all of my stocks were up today. Too bad it's not real money.

When the market starts climbing and stays on course and people start going back to work or spending more, well, then we'll see. It's just too damned early to start making calls like that.

My portfolio (including some well-timed sales) is actually down only 5%. I should be going on CNBC and yelling about how my investment strategy beat the market by 35 percentage points, since I'm apparently at least as credible as Jim Cramer.

Mine's not real money, though. It's on UpDown. Wish it was. Made $40k today.

Mine is real money, and I hope it keeps rising because I'm probably going to have to sell out at some point to pay living expenses if I can't find a good part-time job while I'm back in school for these next 2-3 years.

 

[Zetona]

While a stock market recovery has historically preceded economic recovery, there were several stock rallies during the early days of the Great Depression (at about this time of the year), and analysts thought the worst was over when it was only going to get far worse. However, the Great Depression makes the current recession look small in comparison, and it was perhaps even more widespread. The Great Depression had over 5000 bank failures, many suicides, 25% unemployment, and the national debt increased twelve fold before the economy recovered.

 

[Meta 500]

It's just an initial response to Obama announcing his bank rescue plan- it doesn't really mean anything.

It's been proven that the stock market doesn't change too much based on what presidents say. The Dow dropped when Woodrow Wilson announced we won World War I, and it rose when the Titanic sunk. It's crazy speculation and insane leaps of logic that put the market where it is, and it's what's keeping it there now. The bank rescue plan really isn't doing much anyway, it's all a waste, at least in my opinion.