Poll: A threat to American Hegemony?

[MammothBlade]

You really need to fix the paragraphing in your post, but that was a really nice read.
As a citizen of Israel I'm terrified at my future prospects and hope I will start learning how to speak German pretty soon or else I'm screwed.

Could you explain why you are so frightened?

.
Israel is alienating its other allies. If the USA falls in rank and loses its ability to project a sphere of influence then Israel is screwed.

It's also screwed by demographics. Palestinians are outbreeding the Israelis. I can understand why Israelis are scared. However, they're not making the potential demise of Israel any easier for its Jewish inhabitants by enraging and persecuting the Arab population who will take their vengeance when the Jewish become a minority within Israel. Israel should make the case for its existence without using charges of anti-semitism against anyone who criticises its colonialist settlement policies and without the ghettoisation of Palestinians/Arabs. It really makes Israel a bad guy in international poltiics. Without powerful lobbying organisations the Israeli government would have to answer before the UN war crimes tribunal.

Taiwan is another nation which is very much screwed when the USA loses hegemony. Japan and South Korea might help sway the balance, but are they willing to risk war with China? One thing I can see happening is a war over the South China Sea and Taiwan. China, Vietnam, and North Korea on one side; Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea on the other. Vietnam is also worried about China but I think with a few concessions it might agree to be an ally.

 

[Terminal Blue]

But unlike history, where a collapse ended with a few ragtag colonials getting a country or something, America's collapse from a world superpower will leave a sizeable power vacuum that other countries will try to fill.

Yeah, damn those ragtag colonials like the United States, China, Brazil and India. They'll never do anything of importance..

And on topic.

"Collapse" strikes me as the wrong world. Britain didn't "collapse", I live here and it's still pretty nice. I haven't clubbed someone to death for their food ration for days now. What we're talking about here is other countries, namely places like China, Brazil and India, catching up, and while that could have quite a negative effect on the US economy if it isn't planned for, long term it can only be a good thing for the world as whole. It is, in fact, what everyone has been preparing for when they talk about globalization.

Politically, no longer being the pre-eminent world power might be the kind of wake up call America needs. Certainly in Britain, the anxiety over the end of the Empire seems to have pulled the sticks out of a few arses, and if there's one thing we should learn from the British empire, it's that living in the richest and most powerful country on Earth doesn't mean your life is terribly nice or even that you're terribly rich. There's room for improvement, and maybe declining global importance will make that more obvious to the average American.

So yeah, it's going to happen one day. China controls almost all of the supply of rare earths, which are vital to any modern economy. Brazil has invested hugely in high tech industry. America will find a niche in the global economy just like Britain did, but sooner or later someone is going to do better. I don't think that's anything to fear, from a global perspective it's pretty cool, and could actually mean life in America gets better, not worse.

 

[ACman]

You should be more worried about the little union in Europe. Seriously they're making me nervous.

What are you referring to?

Apparently, an organisation made up of several government bodies, with several different sized armies, with several varying agendas are more of a threat than one huge military under one government.


Yeah, I couldn't keep a straight face either.

More of a threat than the superpower that is unable to regulate its own financial system leading to unregulated bailouts because it is "too big to fail"?

The current financial crisis is not Europe's fault. America's inability to control its own finance is the cause. This exacerbated Europe's problems.

That's not to say that European nations are blameless but this all extends from an American fuckup.

 

[TheIronRuler]

You really need to fix the paragraphing in your post, but that was a really nice read.
As a citizen of Israel I'm terrified at my future prospects and hope I will start learning how to speak German pretty soon or else I'm screwed.

Could you explain why you are so frightened?

.
Israel is alienating its other allies. If the USA falls in rank and loses its ability to project a sphere of influence then Israel is screwed.

It's also screwed by demographics. Palestinians are outbreeding the Israelis. I can understand why Israelis are scared. However, they're not making the potential demise of Israel any easier for its Jewish inhabitants by enraging and persecuting the Arab population who will take their vengeance when the Jewish become a minority within Israel. Israel should make the case for its existence without using charges of anti-semitism against anyone who criticises its colonialist settlement policies and without the ghettoisation of Palestinians/Arabs. It really makes Israel a bad guy in international poltiics. Without powerful lobbying organisations the Israeli government would have to answer before the UN war crimes tribunal.

Taiwan is another nation which is very much screwed when the USA loses hegemony. Japan and South Korea might help sway the balance, but are they willing to risk war with China? One thing I can see happening is a war over the South China Sea and Taiwan. China, Vietnam, and North Korea on one side; Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea on the other. Vietnam is also worried about China but I think with a few concessions it might agree to be an ally.

.
I am not worried about the growth of the Muslim Arab population in Israel. In recent years it had decreased and gone down to somewhere are the Israeli one which is 3.2 kids per family. Women in the Muslim Arab sector nowadays go out and study and work before they get married and men need to build their own households before they may marry a Muslim woman (He can't bring her to poverty). Standard of living is slowly climbing and so does the amount of children per family decreases accordingly. I estimate they will stay a minority, as a fifth of the population of Israel.

I...wait...what... Arab population taking their vengeance when there are more Muslim Arabs in Israel than Jews. Wait, what? If that ever happens, I mean if you seriously see a war between the two groups and the front lines get blurred, then the IDF will push them back and away from the territory just like how it did to the Arab Militias in the Independence war of 47-48 (Before the declaration and the arrival of the combined armies of Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan and Syria). I think you're not understanding the situation.

Our politicians are inept. In stead of using the case of Golda Meir, Israel's Prime Minister at the time of the '73 war and her hesitation about the war, you see atomic ducks and antisemitism. I blame the incompetence of my elected leaders. They are still living in the 70s. (In the '73 war the Prime Minister at the time was informed that the neighboring armies are preparing to strike and she had a chance to call a massive draft and strike first at them. She refused because after the '67 war the world pretty much either hated us or didn't care for us one bit. She thought that if we play the victim we would get some legitimization. Nooooooope. It was one of the bloodiest conflicts we ever had. We face a somewhat similar decision now, though I don't have all of the info in front of me and probably never will.)

Ghettoisation ... Do not agree. Is that even a proper verb? There are mixed cities and towns and there are Arab villages, I do not see how you can reach this strange conclusion.
*cough* War Crimes *cough*. Compare the amount of human rights violations and deaths between Rwanda and Israel, and now look at the UN resolutions concerning them. There is a hidden agenda here, the same reason why the refugees from '49 do not have ther camps dismantled and they are no integrated into the local society. The Arab nations want a piece of the Israeli Pie and Jordan would like to have their west bank back. Also, *cough* Black September *cough* *cough* Jordan *cough*.

 

[Daystar Clarion]

You should be more worried about the little union in Europe. Seriously they're making me nervous.

What are you referring to?

Apparently, an organisation made up of several government bodies, with several different sized armies, with several varying agendas are more of a threat than one huge military under one government.


Yeah, I couldn't keep a straight face either.

More of a threat than the superpower that is unable to regulate its own financial system leading to unregulated bailouts because it is "too big to fail"?

The current financial crisis is not Europe's fault. America's inability to control its own finance is the cause. This exacerbated Europe's problems.

That's not to say that European nations are blameless but this all extends from an American fuckup.

Indeed.

I'm still trying to figure out how a country gets 10 trillion dollars in debt.

It's fucking mind boggling how much money that is.

 

[Tipsy Giant]

Privatisation will always cripple a country, especially when they find a loophole through rewording bribery (Lobbying)

 

[Nickolai77]

Well, America's in relative decline in that it's economy is slowly growing but many other countries like China, Brazil and India etc are fast catching up and China's likely to overtake in a few decades.

So in some way's America's decline is going to be like Britain's. Living standards will continue to increase, people are still going to work in relative safety and Hollywood will still make it's blockbusters. The main thing that America will have to mentally adjust to is not being the worlds sole-superpower. America won't have unquestioned military superiority of China continues to ramp up military spending, America won't be the first place where the worlds foremost intellectuals will go nor will America be at the very forefront of scientific research.

But given it's large population America won't shrink into the middle-power league like Britain has. America will be either joint superpower or second superpower to China for most of this century. I'd be surprised if Americas's not in the top 3 world powers by the end of this century. Assuming some sort of disaster, political, civil or environmental, devastates America.

In all likelihood, America will in the next few decades have it's own "Suez Crisis".[footnote] In British history, the Suez Crisis, occurring in 1952 i think, is when Britain and France conspired to create a war between Isreal and Egypt that would allow the UK and France to step in as "peacekeepers" to re-take control of the Suez Canal which had been nationaised by Egypt. The USA disapproved of this and threatened to call in the debt that Britain owed the US, forcing an embarrassed Franco-British withdraw. The point of this is that it brought to everyone's attention that Britain was no longer a major power.[/footnote]Perhaps the USA will perform a military intervention in South America one day and China, disapproving of this, threatens to call in it's debts and America's forced to withdraw. Or maybe it will be something more symbolic like China beating the US into putting a man on Mars. It may be something like that, a few political embarrassments for America, that will lead mean the country will have to come to terms with no longer being the sole superpower of the world.

Still, i don't think anything drastic will happen, and America will continue to be a major world power, just not the sole world superpower.

 

[MasterOfHisOwnDomain]

The question isn't if America is going to collapse, its how can the rest of the world reduce damages when it does collapse.

I'm very optimistic about this. America won't collapse, as has been said, it will just cease to have quite the dominance and relevance across the world. There's no colonies to pull out of and economies / politics to threaten (e.g. the state of affairs at the end of the age of empire).

I think a multipolar world will be beneficial. Although I am the kind of person who eventually wants a World Government (and if anyone says the UN is already that then I will scream...).

 

[hawkeye52]

America's economy seems to be in shambles from a laymans point of view and will most likely stay like that until you sort out the mess that is your political system of having two elected houses that both swing back and forth in terms of who controls them. The American president (dem or rep) steps forward and says I want to do this and the other house (who from what I have seen thus far) immediately says no because they are from the other party. I understand the point of having two houses of debate to act as a check and balance but when both are so politically dominated it becomes a mess and just stagnates the country.

Take a look at the British system which although ain't a shining beacon is still imo much better then the American system because although the House of lords ain't elected it actually does mean we get some form of impartial debate going that is outside of politics which is a proper check and balance and doesn't just stagnate.

 

[ACman]

You should be more worried about the little union in Europe. Seriously they're making me nervous.

What are you referring to?

Apparently, an organisation made up of several government bodies, with several different sized armies, with several varying agendas are more of a threat than one huge military under one government.


Yeah, I couldn't keep a straight face either.

More of a threat than the superpower that is unable to regulate its own financial system leading to unregulated bailouts because it is "too big to fail"?

The current financial crisis is not Europe's fault. America's inability to control its own finance is the cause. This exacerbated Europe's problems.

That's not to say that European nations are blameless but this all extends from an American fuckup.

Indeed.

I'm still trying to figure out how a country gets 10 trillion dollars in debt.

It's fucking mind boggling how much money that is.

It's not so much about the amount of debt. The amount of debt affects the balance of payments but it's not such a bad thing as long as the money was put to good use.

The bigger problem is that a sensible financial system would insulate speculators from lenders. In America they became mixed sectors when they should have been separate.

And the solution, apparently, is to have even less regulation and that large bank that fails should have it's company loses covered by the government.

In this situation it should be the borrowers that were covered by the government (the money will go to the banks anyway) but it appears that the priority was share holders.

In a sensible banking system the government should cover account holders only and let both share holders and borrowers accept risk.

Apparently, in the American system, shareholders have no risk, borrowers get fucked and everybody apart from financiers lose as capital dries up.

 

[ablac]

You really need to fix the paragraphing in your post, but that was a really nice read.
As a citizen of Israel I'm terrified at my future prospects and hope I will start learning how to speak German pretty soon or else I'm screwed.

Could you explain why you are so frightened?

.
Israel is alienating its other allies. If the USA falls in rank and loses its ability to project a sphere of influence then Israel is screwed.

This isnt an attack in anyway im just curious. Many people here (UK) and in the states think that Israel is agrresive towards its neighbors and expands into land which it has no claim to. Then youve got the blockade youve got going on (though I dont know too much about it) and many incidents of unprovoked attacks and executions of civilians in nieghboring countries. I dont know enough about the situation to make a judgement (partially ignorance and its very difficult to find unbiased sources) and I dont know the validity of these claims. Would you be able to explain if these are true or not and if not, why do people think them and dislike your nation. I am not insinuating that you are the only ones at fault, I know that your neighbours seem to be as agressive, I am interested in what its like for an israely and how thigs seem from your perspective. So as to not clog up the forum further if it is a problem could you send a response privately?

 

[TheIronRuler]

You really need to fix the paragraphing in your post, but that was a really nice read.
As a citizen of Israel I'm terrified at my future prospects and hope I will start learning how to speak German pretty soon or else I'm screwed.

Could you explain why you are so frightened?

.
Israel is alienating its other allies. If the USA falls in rank and loses its ability to project a sphere of influence then Israel is screwed.

This isnt an attack in anyway im just curious. Many people here (UK) and in the states think that Israel is agrresive towards its neighbors and expands into land which it has no claim to. Then youve got the blockade youve got going on (though I dont know too much about it) and many incidents of unprovoked attacks and executions of civilians in nieghboring countries. I dont know enough about the situation to make a judgement (partially ignorance and its very difficult to find unbiased sources) and I dont know the validity of these claims. Would you be able to explain if these are true or not and if not, why do people think them and dislike your nation. I am not insinuating that you are the only ones at fault, I know that your neighbours seem to be as agressive, I am interested in what its like for an israely and how thigs seem from your perspective. So as to not clog up the forum further if it is a problem could you send a response privately?

.
Give me some specific questions please. We are at fault as much as our neighbors are at fault. people claiming we are torturing and killing civilians in Gaza and the west bank do so because the topic in brought into light and intensified, even while other much worse cases are ignored and thrown out because the Arab countries (And the anti-america block) has no ned for them to use. The Palestinians are suffering through this conflict and had been beaten and killed and tortured by both the Israelis and the neighboring Arab nations, see the way Jordan treated the Palestinians when they were illegally annexed to Jordan between '49 and '67.

A segment of the Israeli population wants to colonize and inhibit the west bank and throw all of the Arabs out. They believe that what was done in '49 and '67 can be done yet again. I don't support that. This is aggressive expansion, and my current government is supporting it.

The blockage on Gaza in my eyes is fully justifiable. There had been an election there followed by a civil war between the semi-militarized political entity, and also terrorist entity HAMAS and the semi-militarized entity FATAH. HAMAS is hostile towards Israel and Jews in general. In its charter it promises to kill all Jews and drive them off their lands. They routinely plan terror attacks and launch rockets from the strip and into the cities and towns around the Gaza strip. They are rumored to have missiles that can reach Tel-Aviv, Israel's largest coastal city. The blockade is to prevent from certain materials from entering. Those materials can theoretically be used to build contraptions like bombs and rockets to be used against the IDF and the citizens of Israel. For some god damned reason they are gaining legitimacy, even though they butchered their own when they fought against the FATAH for control over the Gaza strip.

Shit is complicated.

 

[370999]

International politics is funny OP. There was some degree of doubt over who would win the Cold War. I think it is fair to say the US is in decline but I would be less confident in calling it irreversible. I tend to think we are going to go from a uni-polar system to a multi-polar one but meh.

While America has big problems so does everyone else. The Chinese have to continuously deal with the fact that they face a pretty severe demographic future while having to deal with a quite fractious country and also they have to ensure GDP growth. Those are big big problems.

Do I think America will ever be as strong in comparison to other states as it was after the end of the Cold War? No. Do I think the US is still going to be a major playor in world politics? Definitely.

 

[remnant_phoenix]

All empires rise, experience a time of unparalleled glory, power, and influence, and then decline, usually from overexerting themselves in some way, or becoming complacent, or by resting on past glories.

History tends to repeat.

I don't feel it's my place argue social-politics, but as a man of history, I can say this:

-Consider how quickly the USA went from rag-tag nation of disparate British-American entrepreneurs to the undisputed world power. This happened in the span of time from the 1770s to the 1940s, less than 200 years.

-Also consider that in the middle of that time span the USA fought one of the bloodiest and most destructive civil wars in history.

-Also consider that most world empires built up to their high point significantly slower over the course of several centuries.

Based on all this, I would not at all be surprised if America's decline was more rapid than the decline of other world empires. It'd be unnatural if it wasn't.

 

[Sandytimeman]

You should be more worried about the little union in Europe. Seriously they're making me nervous.

What are you referring to?

Apparently, an organisation made up of several government bodies, with several different sized armies, with several varying agendas are more of a threat than one huge military under one government.


Yeah, I couldn't keep a straight face either.

More of a threat than the superpower that is unable to regulate its own financial system leading to unregulated bailouts because it is "too big to fail"?

The current financial crisis is not Europe's fault. America's inability to control its own finance is the cause. This exacerbated Europe's problems.

That's not to say that European nations are blameless but this all extends from an American fuckup.

Also has nothing to do with the fact that Greece hid its financial problems until after it got accepted into the EU and then almost collapsed.

 

[unoleian]

Yes, the US is in a phase of significant decline. There's no two ways about it.

Our politics are blatantly corrupt and fractured along partisan lines. No one votes on values, only ideologies.

We've eschewed a solid manufacturing base for the manufacture of large quantities of credit and currency, which one day, we'll find we cannot eat or wear.

Working for success has been replaced with praying for a handout.

Education for success is being replaced with praying for high standardized test scores.

We cannot find money for education, but we can fund endless war.

There is no thought for the future, only the here and now, and only for the profit margin.

We want everything for free, but will pay no taxes to get it.

I'm worried the revolution will come within a decade, and it will come when the majority gets tired of being pushed up against the wall for another's small slice of profit-share.

I'm not being doom 'n' gloomin' for the sake of doomsaying. The signs of the decline are everywhere. Question is, do our people honestly care enough to do anything about it before it affects their personal bottom line, the single driving force for seemingly every self-absorbed fucker around this place? We'll drown in our sense of ungrateful entitlement and me-first mentality before we collectively realize putting on the blinders and ignoring the issues won't make them go away, and neither will voting once again for the same fuckers who continually screw the people in favor of corporate thank-yous.