I go on how they were this year, and how the coming year looks.
Example:
Nintendo had a great 2010, with new Donkey Kong Country and Mario Galaxy 2. And 2011 looks better with the 3DS, new Kid Icarus, new Zelda and more.(No matter what the Minecraft fanboys say, I will always think Nintendo has a better 2011 coming than Mojang.)
Compare that to Obsidian. New Vegas was a buggy mess, and they have nothing going for them in 2011.
I treat every round like it's the first. Sure, I was pissed that Mojang beat Nintendo. But I won't let spite cause me to vote against Mojang, when Namco clearly had no noticable games in 2010, and none coming in 2011. So I voted Mojang.