Poll: Is China a economic threat to the U.S.?
- Thread starter Stickynote74
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Depends what you mean by "threat"?
The general opinion at the moment is that China will become the worlds leading economy by 2040, so that puts America at second place. China buys a lot of American debt, is growing faster the USA at the moment... for now, America is still the worlds economic power house.
Funny really, America will have had, more or less 100 years of economic and political dominance (1945-2040) just like Britain had 100 years of economic and political dominance (1815- 1914) Perhaps China will have the same (2040-2140?)
The general opinion at the moment is that China will become the worlds leading economy by 2040, so that puts America at second place. China buys a lot of American debt, is growing faster the USA at the moment... for now, America is still the worlds economic power house.
Funny really, America will have had, more or less 100 years of economic and political dominance (1945-2040) just like Britain had 100 years of economic and political dominance (1815- 1914) Perhaps China will have the same (2040-2140?)
well there is the fact that the US owes a HUGE economic debt to China, most of the clothing, electronics and various other products used in daily life are made in China, it has more people, it makes more stuff and it also has a stake in a bunch of American companies.
so yes i'd say they've got the USA by the short and curlies as the saying goes
so yes i'd say they've got the USA by the short and curlies as the saying goes
China is at an inherent disadvantage, though. The US is not an industrial-based economy; it is a service-based one. China has great credentials to be an industrial economy, but not for a service-based economy. Eventually they will pan out because they'll produce to much. Plus, India is more of threat to China than China to the US.
A "threat?" Not sure what you mean by that. They're indescribably important to our economy, certainly, and they'll eventually have the potential to outstrip us, but that's hardly a threat.
Only if people get it into their heads that the US should cut off trade with China. But then, that's more stupid politicians being an economical threat to the US than China itself.
The US and China's economies are symbiotically linked. If one gets disrupted, so goes the other.
The US and China's economies are symbiotically linked. If one gets disrupted, so goes the other.
No.
In fact the complete opposite, you (and us Europeans) need China to survive as economic powers. Probably 50% of our manufacturing is outsourced to China, it's the bulk of their economy and ours is reliant on it's produce to make our designs.
If one side or the other stops we're both well and truly fucked in economic terms, China will have nothing to sell, we will have nothing for them to make.
You don't have to like them, but it's the nature of world economics now that China, Europe, the US, far east Asia and India need each other's business to keep their respective economies running. Threat nothing, we need them.
As a different point American industry needs to change if it wants to stay a world power or suffer a UK seventies and eighties style slump. Your factories are over unionised and the technology is becoming extremely outdated. This is no more apparent than in US made cars, they've become synonymous with poor quality outdated and under engineered designs. But the massive chunks of dead industry that need to be hacked out are being held in place by Government funding and the threat of industrial action. Until that changes US industry is going to keep declining and hemoraging money. That's a bigger threat than China.
In fact the complete opposite, you (and us Europeans) need China to survive as economic powers. Probably 50% of our manufacturing is outsourced to China, it's the bulk of their economy and ours is reliant on it's produce to make our designs.
If one side or the other stops we're both well and truly fucked in economic terms, China will have nothing to sell, we will have nothing for them to make.
You don't have to like them, but it's the nature of world economics now that China, Europe, the US, far east Asia and India need each other's business to keep their respective economies running. Threat nothing, we need them.
As a different point American industry needs to change if it wants to stay a world power or suffer a UK seventies and eighties style slump. Your factories are over unionised and the technology is becoming extremely outdated. This is no more apparent than in US made cars, they've become synonymous with poor quality outdated and under engineered designs. But the massive chunks of dead industry that need to be hacked out are being held in place by Government funding and the threat of industrial action. Until that changes US industry is going to keep declining and hemoraging money. That's a bigger threat than China.
History repeats itself. Europe became the dominant power back at the beginning of the industrial revolution because it was fueled by cheap goods that it could sell to the rest of the world. Hand-spun cloth and blacksmiths couldn't compete with machined goods, and so they went under
Fast-forward a bit and the revolution hits America. Bigger, more unified bloc, scaled-up industry, and the U.S. does unto Europe what Europe did unto the Third World. European industry has shriveled or huddled under government shelters.
And now to today, where the revolution has reached it's way into the third world. Education and industrialism have come into the hands of the very poorest of the poor and they are pulling the rug out of every layer of First World society. Every job is cheaper to perform in the Third World, from iron smelting to plastic work to accounting. Telecommunication has made it possible for any business to send it's clerical work to be done in Bangalore or Bangkok.
In the long term, wages will equal out, as the always do, and the level will be much closer to China's than America's. The choice any country in this situation has to make is between cheaper goods or better wages.
Fast-forward a bit and the revolution hits America. Bigger, more unified bloc, scaled-up industry, and the U.S. does unto Europe what Europe did unto the Third World. European industry has shriveled or huddled under government shelters.
And now to today, where the revolution has reached it's way into the third world. Education and industrialism have come into the hands of the very poorest of the poor and they are pulling the rug out of every layer of First World society. Every job is cheaper to perform in the Third World, from iron smelting to plastic work to accounting. Telecommunication has made it possible for any business to send it's clerical work to be done in Bangalore or Bangkok.
In the long term, wages will equal out, as the always do, and the level will be much closer to China's than America's. The choice any country in this situation has to make is between cheaper goods or better wages.
Ill say yes, because were going to lose our AAA credit rating if we don't stop spending money
but the flip side is, we buy a lot of their products so if they become a real threat we could probably supplement those products with products from other countries. But I don't really see a major problem with that unless we keep sending the crotchety ***** over to talk to them. Its not her fault, they just don't value women in China.
but the flip side is, we buy a lot of their products so if they become a real threat we could probably supplement those products with products from other countries. But I don't really see a major problem with that unless we keep sending the crotchety ***** over to talk to them. Its not her fault, they just don't value women in China.
Will they outgrow us? Yes
Does that make them a threat? No
Plus, their economy is heavily dependant on us. As is ours to them
Not to mention that as they grow richer, their people will want the same benefits as us. Which will stop their giant growth
Does that make them a threat? No
Plus, their economy is heavily dependant on us. As is ours to them
Not to mention that as they grow richer, their people will want the same benefits as us. Which will stop their giant growth
Short-term, yes. Long-term, no, because I believe globalization will start setting in more and more in such a way that we'll eventually (in ~300 years) end up with one 'superstate' that goes all around the world. Better markets than the one currently in action will be invented and come into play and terms like "economic threat" and "stocks" will lose most of their meaning.
No. The world trade system works on absolute gains principals. All nations gain from trade. The US economy is only a threat to itself.