Poll: Will China Replace the US as the World's Leading Superpower?
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But the USA did piss off china by crossing the Yalu River. Then the Chinese conscript army came into korea and beat them back to the 38th Parallel. SO much for conscripts being naff, eh?ecoho said:
Despite that I highly doubt that the US would be able to initiate a war with China after it loses economic superiority as the bloated military budget would (should) be one of the first things to be cut.
Old Soviet missiles don't scare me.Tanksie said:
Remember we have the nuclear arsenal to wipe out the entire world. You better hope we don't go to war with China.
You go so far out of your way to be insulting, that I'm not totally sure what you're even saying, but I'll try anyway to answer. Right now the Chinese are trying an experimental economic system, you're right. But even Chinese economists who've been trained in actual economics (as opposed to communist economics) recognize that China's greatest obstacle to dominance is a staggering lack of ingenuity. (According to a half dozen Chinese born and raised professors I've completed my degree with at UC Denver). The Chinese have great numbers, and resources, but with the centrally planned structure still in place (Where "private" firms operate on their own but obey all orders from Beijing) there will never be an environment to foster true, transformative, entrepreneurship in China. The evidence that Central Planning/Socialism creates only inefficiency and later destruction has been chronicled within the entire history of the world in the 20th century.JacobShaftoe said:
The Chinese economy, as it exists now, has a natural barrier to face. The peak of technology (and therefore efficiency, productivity, and speed of market adaptation) will come when the Chinese have stolen or bought the best technology developed by others.
Only Free Market economies can create new technology on an aggregate scale. Unless China becomes FULLY free, they will not surpass the US. And if China ever becomes free then I'll be proud to accept them as a legitimate super power.
The US is the richest, by nearly 50% of China's GDP over again. The US is op by China's (#2 economy) and Japan's (#3 economy) added up, plus a little. As for trade, well technology and entertainment are major productions of the US, and even falling behind in those the US has massive reserves of some very important raw materials (renewable ones like food and trees foremost among those). I think you would be quite shocked to learn just how much of the worlds food is grown in the US.The-Epicly-Named-Man said:
The US has about the forth highest per capita GDP as well (all those with higher GDP per capita have populations less the 1.5 million, and fill niche roles in the economies of larger nations next to them - like how New York would have a massive per capita GDP if the city was its own country) so it isn't a large GDP simply due to a large number of citizens (312 million by the way).
The US could easily trudge along as a massive economic powerhouse well into the future, especially since it has a growing population (actually rare among developed countries) and room, plus resources, to expand.
Eh, who knows? People thought that Japan would "dethrone" the US in the 80s because their economy was booming, and that never happened. Yeah, sure Japan is a bigger player today than it once was, but it's not a superpower.
And really, so what if China does become the next super power? It doesn't mean the US will fall to shambles. It doesn't mean there will be an invasion. Little will change when it comes to daily lives.
My best theory, yes, the US will no longer be a super power in the next few decades. However, I don't think there will be another super power. The age of the superpower nation is gone as we are far to interdependent for one country to dominate. Sure, China is strong now, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a major revolution there shortly. The people in the cities work in horrific conditions. The people in the countryside live in medieval communities. There have been several major disasters to hit China in recent years, and the idea of the "Mandate of Heaven" still has some sway over the mindset of the populous. I don't know if a revolution would be successful, but I think it's going to happen by 2050.
And really, so what if China does become the next super power? It doesn't mean the US will fall to shambles. It doesn't mean there will be an invasion. Little will change when it comes to daily lives.
My best theory, yes, the US will no longer be a super power in the next few decades. However, I don't think there will be another super power. The age of the superpower nation is gone as we are far to interdependent for one country to dominate. Sure, China is strong now, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a major revolution there shortly. The people in the cities work in horrific conditions. The people in the countryside live in medieval communities. There have been several major disasters to hit China in recent years, and the idea of the "Mandate of Heaven" still has some sway over the mindset of the populous. I don't know if a revolution would be successful, but I think it's going to happen by 2050.
no we retreated because our solders were told not to engage the Chinese at all costs plus it also didnt help that it was the COLD WAR and if we had fought the Chinese we would have been at war with the USR which would mean nuclear war. so yeah i hope youve learned somthing. oh and as to our economy even in the state it is now we can and would be able to prosecute two wars and one trouble spot the size of France at one time. Trsut me i used to be logistics in the military.richd213 said:
Sorry, I don't know much about the US economy. I suppose I should give some context, I live in Europe and the majority of electrical goods I own are produced in China, most of the rest are from Japan, while any fresh foods are from here. So I probably shouldn't have said anything but that was just how it seemed to me.manaman said:
Well clearly the eternal Empire of Great Britain will be the leading world super power in 2050....
What?
Seriously though, China isn't becoming #1 superpower anytime soon. Sure they have a strong economy and sure their finances are impressive... but these things can change in a flash, they are not generating any internal wealth, it all comes from trading with the west. The important facts are that we are shipping out low value work to them because basically its too menial for us to bother with at our level of education, i..e clothes and good manufacture. The technical work and high precision engineering is still seated in the west.
tbh though the whole concept of a superpower is somewhat outdated, we are a global economy now, all so closely interlinked and interdependent that if one country on one side of the world sneezes, the countries on the other side of the world wipe their noses.
What?
Seriously though, China isn't becoming #1 superpower anytime soon. Sure they have a strong economy and sure their finances are impressive... but these things can change in a flash, they are not generating any internal wealth, it all comes from trading with the west. The important facts are that we are shipping out low value work to them because basically its too menial for us to bother with at our level of education, i..e clothes and good manufacture. The technical work and high precision engineering is still seated in the west.
tbh though the whole concept of a superpower is somewhat outdated, we are a global economy now, all so closely interlinked and interdependent that if one country on one side of the world sneezes, the countries on the other side of the world wipe their noses.
The "But can China innovate in a society with terrible IP and no true property rights?" question is pretty old.
We know this argument holds little historical basis, as China throughout history has been dynastic, and the emperors of the old did not give a damn about property rights and IP, and yet China still managed to innovate. Not to mention that the USSR, a power that was even more closed and restricted than China, managed to produce major breakthroughs in science and technology, and has their fair share of Nobel peace prize winners.
From a comparative perspective, I would say the reason China hasn't innovated yet is because they're not really past the manufacturing stage of development. It's kind of silly to assume that China will either reinvent the wheel or suddenly jump ship to a higher level of development.
The IP protection has some basis, but in general, China's IP enforcement is getting better (though rather slowly). As China increases its patents and media industry, they're going to demand protection from the government also.
I suppose the biggest impediment would be the structure of how research is conducted in China, in which political officers approve grants/projects rather than experts doing the decision making process. This is the frequent criticism that Chinese professors have towards the Chinese system. In contrast, however, the government has been throwing wads of cash and protection towards Chinese companies to innovate, so you know they at least have government support to innovate in an environment that stifles innovation.
We know this argument holds little historical basis, as China throughout history has been dynastic, and the emperors of the old did not give a damn about property rights and IP, and yet China still managed to innovate. Not to mention that the USSR, a power that was even more closed and restricted than China, managed to produce major breakthroughs in science and technology, and has their fair share of Nobel peace prize winners.
From a comparative perspective, I would say the reason China hasn't innovated yet is because they're not really past the manufacturing stage of development. It's kind of silly to assume that China will either reinvent the wheel or suddenly jump ship to a higher level of development.
The IP protection has some basis, but in general, China's IP enforcement is getting better (though rather slowly). As China increases its patents and media industry, they're going to demand protection from the government also.
I suppose the biggest impediment would be the structure of how research is conducted in China, in which political officers approve grants/projects rather than experts doing the decision making process. This is the frequent criticism that Chinese professors have towards the Chinese system. In contrast, however, the government has been throwing wads of cash and protection towards Chinese companies to innovate, so you know they at least have government support to innovate in an environment that stifles innovation.
If you are talking land invasion of the US there is still one huge problem for China, and no one is more aware of this then they are... its called the Ocean. Transporting troops and supplies across it is a logistical nightmare. And the entire way you are vulnerable to our Navy... Our Pacific Navy, because we have two... ya know because we can...Tanksie said:
Dude, don't go to Al Gore for political "facts" 98% of Oil in America comes from America (mostly off shore) and Canada only 1% comes from the Middle East. Also America has always had the majority of the worlds oil, we just don't tap it. A cross between long term goals (when the Middle East runs out and the rest of the world is boned we will be golden) and hippy conversationalist trying to stop us from drilling.JacobShaftoe said:
The whole "We invaded the middle east for oil" bull goes right out the window you actually look at the numbers.
You mean that you still think the US is the superpower with it's economy? And their 14 trillion dollar debt, which they have to vote to increase to prevent another economic crash? The problem is that in an age where everyone has nuclear weaponry power is basically economic, the Chinese have a large population that is mostly labor based. They are the ones who lent the US so much of that money. And they bring in the most money as a country - soooo economically China certainly seems to be in the best bet for a "superpower".