Poll: Will China Replace the US as the World's Leading Superpower?

[IkeGreil29]

Russia. They have more reserves of natural anything and the ability to exploit it. I hate to use games, especially very hypothetical/ridiculous ones as my defense, but Tom Clancy's Endwar is a good idea of what'll happen in the future. The US will never truly fall in the way other super powers have, simply because they have developed that position in a crucial state. I don't see them getting out of the hole they've gotten themselves into economically and politically anytime soon, so now's as good a time as ever to start looking for the new world leader. Maybe China will be the one, I dunno. But Russia seemed to me like the more logical choice due to how this is all shaping up... no one is exploiting their resources the way others are their own and selling it off, and so we will end up depending a lot on places like that that have what we're still looking for, even if it is only the third world (read: the majority of the world) that still depends on "primitive" fuels or technological equivalents.

 

[Jacco]

I think its ineveitable the way its going currently with the US being in such massive debt and most of that debt is owned by China and at any point in time they can say "Pay up *****" and the US will basically be screwed. so unless the US pulls a big U-turn and gets out of debt in amazing fashion the power may shift to china.

China and the United States are so entertwined economically that I would be very surprised if there is ever a split. China cannot simply say "pay up *****" because they depend on that interest money to fund their own government. In a way, we are keeping each other afloat.

Without China paying for the wars we are fighting, there would be no wars. Without the interest return on that funding, there are no Chinese social programs. Everything falls apart on both sides if one backs out.

Not to mention that they depend on our money to support their economy and we depend on their goods to support our lifestyle (and to an extent our economy).

 

[Jacco]

You mean that you still think the US is the superpower with it's economy? And their 14 trillion dollar debt, which they have to vote to increase to prevent another economic crash? The problem is that in an age where everyone has nuclear weaponry power is basically economic, the Chinese have a large population that is mostly labor based. They are the ones who lent the US so much of that money. And they bring in the most money as a country - soooo economically China certainly seems to be in the best bet for a "superpower".

This is untrue- I read just earlier today that the US accounts for like 22% of the planet's GDP.

 

[emeraldrafael]

Short answer no, its doubtful.

Oh, I'll admit, china's rising in the world. but they're not near superpower status. They have too much wrong domestically, and their domestic economy is getting shaky as they continue this low ball with shit quality items for cheap strategy in the foreign trade.

And while they have the man power, and their army is advanced enough, its not enough to stand against a pro western democratic world. it wont just be US vs China. It will be something like US/EU vs China/Russia.

My bet would be on the EU, if they could get their shit together. The problem with that is they'd have to be one nation all the time not just the way tehy are like the way the UN is "one world united". you have a few countries go south (Spain, Greece) and the whole thing gets thrown out of whack.

So I would predict either russia takes over (cause india is in a same relative boat as China, only they seem to be the worse off of the two, and I've never heard Brazil's name rise up in conversation about this) or Canada/the US/(maybe) Mexico (if they get that drug cartel problem under heel) would form a continental Union in the same way Europe has the EU and use that superior wealth and status in the world.

In all actuality, in the future, i dont htink there will be so many countries, and only a significantly less number of unions. Like the EU, OPEC, NATO, etc.

 

[BonsaiK]

What do ya'll think? If not, then which country (if any) will? China, India, Brazil, Germany and Russia have all been speculated to dethrone the US. So what do you think?

1. In terms of cultural relevance the US will remain on top.

2. In terms of everything else, the US has already been surpassed.

Interestingly, 1. is happening because of 2.

 

[GraveeKing]

U.S: Economic meltdown right now.
China: Economic bubble.
The rest of the list are developing country's and have a chance to gain some good power but I doubt as a leading superpower. Personally, I see Germany as one who might start gaining some power, if we were actually sensible enough to have a proper, decent E.U that would probably be the major superpower.
According to that date we got about 40 years to actually make a proper E.U and become a superpower. Will/would it happen? No. No it simple won't.

 

[ecoho]

the only reason we dont own north Korea is because we didnt want to piss off china trust me if we didnt give a shit i give it 5 years before we could beat china into surrendering.what doesnt seem to get through to people is china doesnt have very many solders what they have are alot of conscripts which in a war with any western country would be almost useless.

But the USA did piss off china by crossing the Yalu River. Then the Chinese conscript army came into korea and beat them back to the 38th Parallel. SO much for conscripts being naff, eh?

Despite that I highly doubt that the US would be able to initiate a war with China after it loses economic superiority as the bloated military budget would (should) be one of the first things to be cut.

no we retreated because our solders were told not to engage the Chinese at all costs plus it also didnt help that it was the COLD WAR and if we had fought the Chinese we would have been at war with the USR which would mean nuclear war. so yeah i hope youve learned somthing. oh and as to our economy even in the state it is now we can and would be able to prosecute two wars and one trouble spot the size of France at one time. Trsut me i used to be logistics in the military.

I do history at university. Trust me.

then i fear for your students sir and hope that you actually do some research with people who were there.

 

[ZorroFonzarelli]

If you honestly have questions about geopolitics, read George Friedman's book "The Next 100 Years".

As much as it might irritate billions around the world, the US is frankly the pivot the world spins around now and will be for the next century at least.

China is a paper tiger; their economic expansion is a short-term bubble. If you honestly wonder how this could be, ask yourself what a billion people unionizing would mean to a government that doesn't want them to learn about western standards of living. China has two states - closed off from the world and stable, and economically aggressive and unstable. A tipping point will come and China will fracture, or retreat. Simple as that.

The US has a unique combination of deep military, political, and economic power combined with the security of being virtually invasion-proof thanks to geography.

No other nation can threaten the United States the way the United States threatens every other nation on Earth with its very existence. Other nations will come along here and there becoming regional powers, but nothing on the level of the current US world strength.

That won't change soon. Even in today's battered state, the US Economy is still 1/4 of the world's, and larger than the #2, #3, and #4 Economies combined. The US Economy is so large, even if it falters, the rest of the world's would suffer far greater for it.

It's a good thing the US loves harmony and engages in foreign aid out of benevolence.

 

[Samurai Silhouette]

China probably. Could be why the US is putting so much money into military and R&D in the event if a new superpower is developed and wants to take over the world. I kinda enjoy my gung-ho freedom.

Created 2007

 

[manaman]

Well, first of all, I don't really think any country is "the world's leading super-power". However China is probably the most important nation at the moment, simply because they produce everything. I don't think the US is the richest anymore, but even if it were, it wouldn't matter if there wasn't anything to trade.

The US is the richest, by nearly 50% of China's GDP over again. The US is on too by China (#2 economy) and Japan(#3 economy) added up, plus a little. As for trade, well technology and entertainment are major productions of the US, and even fooling behind in those the use has massive reserves of some very important raw materials (renewable ones like food and trees foremost among those). I think you would be quite shocked to learn just how much of the worlds food is grown in the US.

The US has about the fouth highest per capita GDP as well (all those with higher GDP per capita have populations less the 1.5 million, and fill niche roles in the economies of larger nations next to them - like how New York would have a massive per capita GDP if the city was its own country) so it isn't a large GDP simply due to a large number of citizens (312 million by the way).

The US could easily trudge along as a massive economic powerhouse well into the future, especially since it has a growing population (actually rare among developed countries) and room plus resources to expand.

Sorry, I don't know much about the US economy. I suppose I should give some context, I live in Europe and the majority of electrical goods I own are produced in China, most of the rest are from Japan, while any fresh foods are from here. So I probably shouldn't have said anything but that was just how it seemed to me.

I don't expect people to know everything about foreign countries. The more you know the better informed you can be when you come to discussions like this.

I also appreciate that you didn't comment on the horrible mess I made of that post. I really, really need to start looking over things I type from my phone.

 

[Setupdown]

Hey look. This thread.

Anyways. China is very strong economically, but it's politcal power and military power provides little concern for USA currently. China is the most vulnerable nation to any form of nuclear attack. They have what..? 10 ICBM's. They may have many conscripts but how the hell are they going to do anything to USA when they have no means of moving said army.

Don't even say "Lol human bridge." or "lol boats" Yeah the US navy would annhilate any attempts of making landfall on mainland USA. No china has a terrible navy (their carrier is from UKRAINE. Which is an old russian/ussr carrier.) and it's airforce has little in the way of being a major threat to US air superiority.

Even Russia and China combined would be crushed in a convential war. US alone. With Nato? Oh boy it's going to be not a cakewalk, and casualties would be immense, but West would come out on top, though everyones messed up with a economy in the shitter.

Anyways back to question...
EU(germany/france/UK) if it fixes it's debt is set to become bigger than it currently is, however if the troubles with it's economy doesn't crash it hard. (Thanks Greece/Italy and others.)
China could become the worlds production plant. If it's property bubble doesn't go pop and it then crashes (Which would be VERY Bad for everyone) Military wise it'd be a case of "lol lots of old USSR missles with pretty chinese star painted on it".
India to could become pretty major especially in IT and pharmaceuticals, plus it'd the China's biggest asian competitor.
Brazil I'd believe it'd have more focus upon South America
Russia? Eh if it gets back on track and does go through with that union of former USSR republics (like Belarus, Kazakhstan etc, not ones like the baltic states and poland. Ukraine won't join either.) it might have more relevance. Currently Russia's size and former superpower status is what keeps it so noticable. And all it's gas. If it can get to that, then kerching.
US would probably continue to be the strongest miltary force in the world as well as extremely influential. If it's debt is fixed, no doubt it will be superpower number one.

 

[Reggie Rock]

I don't believe the US has been a superpower for a LONG time. The term holds barely any meaning any more. Every country is so interdependent that we need each other. Except Malta.

In the mean time, Australia just keeps on being Australia. Helping out the US, helping out China, bein bros, being pacific and shit.
We don't wanna be number 1. We want to keep being Australia. Can you guys let us do that?

 

[Korolev]

There's... really no one way to tell who will be the leading super power in 2050. Honestly, there is no way, absolutely no way to predict which nation will be dominant. Trying to make a prediction assumes that the current trends will continue for decades, and there's no real reason to think that has to be the case. For example, China's economy is doing good right now, and we should all applaud the fact that literally hundreds millions of chinese citizens have been lifted out of crushing poverty. While I hope for China's economy to continue to do well, there is no guarantee that it will. Remember the 80's? I sure don't, I was only born in the late 80's, so I have no recollection - however a lot of 80's films and books dealt with a "Japan" syndrome - a US fear that they would be dominated by "JAPANESE OVERLORDS!" and that Japan was going to take over all the American companies. Guess what? That didn't happen. Japan's economy burst in the very early 90's and it has remained pretty much completely stagnant ever since. I hope something similar does not happen in China (because I want more chinese citizens to be lifted out of poverty), but it could very easily occur in China. The Chinese government is actually quite nervous that their property bubble could burst, crashing the Chinese economy.

But I can wildly guess about the balance of power in 2050. I think China and India and Brazil are here to stay as powerful nations with influence. I don't think the US is going to collapse, nor will Russia resurrect the USSR. I predict a future in which China, India, the USA, the EU and Russia all play a big role in the shaping of world affairs. The UK and France will influence the world has a part of the EU, but let's face it, the glory days of the British Empire are well and truly over. Same thing for the French Republic. We're headed for a multi-polar world - you know, like most of the world has been for most of its history? It's only been VERY recent (last century or so) that one or two major powers have dominated global affairs. The dominance of the US was actually a serious historical abnormality.

Globalization will pretty much ensure that China, the US, India and Russia will all pretty much keep pace with each other. One side can't accrue a significant technological or organizational advantage over the other, as all the tricks have been learned and all the info spreads so goddamn fast due to the internet and jet travel. The world is becoming smaller and more "samey". Hell, I can't even tell the difference between the Americans and the Chinese anymore. Both eat McDonalds, wear Nikes, listen to iPods, wear business suits, drink coffee and tea, work from 9 to 5, drive to work in German or Japanese cars - apart from the language difference, I can't really see any differences between the life of an office worker in Shanghai and the life of an office worker in Boston anymore.