From Nintendo, we've got The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword. In general terms, as PC-centric design has flourished on consoles, Nintendo has won increasingly less GOTY awards. Also, the Zelda series hasn't really been taken seriously as a cutting-edge franchise since the late 90s, and the Wii has the impediment of yesteryear's technology working against it. A write-off.
From id, there's Rage. Combining Motorstorm with Doom 3 is the kind of vulgar idea only id at this stage would come up with, and they frankly haven't won many GOTY awards since the mid-nineties. A write-off.
From Naughty Dog, there's Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception. Uncharted 2 was overrated--it received near-perfect scores and several GOTY honours--and I suspect the third iteration of the series will endure a backlash, slumping backwards critically somewhat. Anyway, it's far too competitive a year for an iterative sequel to walk away with many GOTY awards. A possibility, but unlikely.
From Gearbox and 3D Realms, we have Duke Nukem Forever. Early press leaks on the game seem to indicate it's more of an homage to 90s shooters than anything hugely progressive, the game has had a bungled design history, and Randy Pitchford seems to have adopted the attitude in interviews that the public should be grateful just to be getting a Duke game. Also, this is the sort of toilet humour-type game critics tend to allot decent reviews to, but snub at year-end. A write-off.
From Eidos Montreal, we have Deus Ex: Human Revolution. The dev seems to have a handle on this franchise, but a lot of fans are predicting consoleitus, and I frankly have doubts about the ability of Kane & Lynch's creators to deliver a GOTY-quality product. This will surely get decent scores, but is unlikely for GOTY.
From thatgamecompany, there's Journey. Flower looks great and all, but since when do either MMO's or art-games win GOTY awards? It'll probably win a few "best game no one played" honours, but don't expect much more regardless of its quality.
Media Molecule has already brought out LittleBigPlanet 2. It will not win any GOTY awards.
This leaves five serious contenders. My picks for most GOTY awards in order.
5. Batman: Arkham City
Upside: Rocksteady is smarter than most people think--Arkham Asylum was a compendium of good design decisions--and Arkham City looks like it might be shaping up to be the sort of expansive (and "expansive" is key, here: Arkham Asylum's island was a bit too restrictive to compete with the sandbox crowd), fire-on-all-cylinders sequel that developers could warm to.
Downside: The sort of action/adventure template used in AA was, while honed to near-perfection, basically generic. The same can be said of Rocksteady's use of the Batman license: that it's not an original IP, and that they're mostly just aping the 90s T.V. show's interpretation anyway. Also, "risks" are risks--Rocksteady is inexperienced; a few mistakes could land this game in the same pothole as Spider-Man 3. Yeah, remember that?
4. L.A. Noire
Upside: Rockstar's hyping it as the next big thing. 'Nuff said.
Downside: It's not even by Rockstar's main division, so it could be The Warriors all over again. It also doesn't fit in tidily in the same sandbox category as RDR and GTAIV, which could mean Rockstar will be taken aside and punished by critics for not playing to their strengths.
3. Mass Effect 3
Upside: it's well-known that critics love wordy, overwrought RPGs, and BioWare's C.V. when it comes to year-end honours, from Baldur's Gate to KOTOR to Mass Effect, is unimpeachable.
Downside: after having showered GOTY honours on Mass Effect 2, will critics really want to be as generous with 3? Okay, probably, but Mass Effect 3 will have to be less Return of the Jedi and more Return of the King if it expects to be a serious contender.
2. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Upside: Oblivion and Fallout 3's multiplatform success was a big story, but as it stands they're still reasonably hardcore games by today's slack standards--you know, you actually die and stuff. Critics liked Oblivion for its "accessibility"--if Skyrim pushes forward visually while easing the difficulty curve, they might find the upward mobility to have a real winner on their hands, and Elder Scrolls would rest side-by-side with GTA in the public consciousness.
Downside: This is the third Morrowind-style title by Bethesda to be released this generation, which means they'll really have to make a concerted effort to make changes that are more than iterative. They also have the problem of. . .
1. Portal 2
Upside: The first Portal was a three-hour discursion by Valve that ended up winning a heap of surprise GOTY awards. Valve, then, is an ideal position with Portal 2: this is their first chance to flesh out the IP, elongating it and applying their full abilities towards what Gabe Newell described as "the best game we've ever made." Also: it's fucking Valve.
Downside: Portal 2 is a pivotal moment for Valve as a company--they've been somewhat low-profile since The Orange Box, churning out a Left 4 Dead sequel that was resented in some quarters for being a rehash and giving no indication of EP3's release date. Portal 2, then, whether fans like it or not, is expected to be where all Valve's energies have been applied: if the game turns out to be undercooked even by their lofty standards (or three hours, for that matter), they're probably in for a collective downgrading of their stature.
