Psychohistory: Can it be Possible?

[chimeracreator]

Yep, it's definitely possible assuming technological change remains fairly predictable throughout the period of time in question. Even some figures are fairly easy to predict for example Stalin took the role of a highly effective dictator, and he was only able to obtain his status by brutally destroying his rivals so it stands to reason that he would keep this up once he gained power. However like the Mule a technological breakthrough could easily throw it for a loop and massive populations need to be worked with for any degree of accuracy.

 

[randomsix]

No. Mostly because in order for that to work you have to be able to have a universe where everything is predictable. Every particle must be predictable first in order for every person to be predictable. The [a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle"]Uncertainty principle[/a] tells us that this is not so. Since the micro-universe is uncertain we can surmise that since parts of our behavior are determined by this universe (brain chemistry and such), we are unpredictable, at least some extent. Even a small amount of uncertainty when multiplied over a huge system like the entire world for a period of time such as weeks or months would be off the mark due to this uncertainty.

This just means that we can never have complete certainty, but once you begin to aggregate particular particles you can begin to be very certain of the macroscopic outcome. I would even argue that the vast majority of uncertainties are tempered by their existence within a huge system. For example, when you shine a light through a window, you can never be sure whether a given photon will reflect when it hits the window, but you can be damn well sure that a given percentage of them will.

 

[mad825]

Okay...

In science, there's a thing called theory and practicals. Often theories (mathematical, logical reasoning) don't reflect reality. That's why practicals are performed, to support and explain the theory.