Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia sign peace deal, Armenians unhappy

[09philj]

But the Ottoman Empire isn't Turkey.

Turkey is an invented country built on the ruins of the empire. The sultan of the Ottoman empire was also the Caliph, the spiritual leader of all of the world's Sunnis. The identity of the Ottoman Empire was intrinsically linked to it's status as the pre-eminent Islamic power. After the empire collapsed, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk attempted to replace this religious identity with a new secular and fairly isolationist Turk nationalism centred on Turks in Anatolia. However, the repression of muslim identity in Turkey that resulted from this eventually led to a backlash and resurgence of Islamism led by Erdogan. Erdogan is determined to break with Atatürk's ideals in key areas, and one of those is reasserting Turkey's power within it's traditional sphere of influence in the Mediterranean and middle east.

 

[stroopwafel]

I don't think the EU will push Turkey over the Caucasus, but it surely will stand up for Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, where Turkish expansionism in the Mediterranean would have to go through. At best, the EU might agree to some limited joint sharing around Greek islands very close to its coast like Kastellorizo.

Of course, some of the problem might fade just if Erdogan eventually goes, and someone can take over who doesn't use crude nationalism to keep their popularity afloat.

Well, Turkey has been probing those seas for months now with very little repercussions from the E.U., much to the chagrin of Greece. There is some faraway island that Greece claims that is so far away from it's shores it can no longer be really considered territorial waters but which happens to reside in an area with a huge gas reservoir. Turkey wants it, Greece claims and it's unlikely any of them will back down. But ofcourse, Greece can do nothing without E.U. support.

I don't see Erdogan leaving any time soon. The 'moderates' have burned all their goodwill with years of corruption and inefficiency. Erdogan is really a representative of a resurgent nationalism and he also has the support of those who want islam back in politics. It's unlikely Erdogan will turn back the clock given Turkey's economic prosperity but it's unlikely he will give up his position as well, not in the least because he is still very popular among the electorate. As long as Turkey still has a democracy anyway, already hard at work annihilating the separation of powers.

 

[Iron]

Turkey is an invented country built on the ruins of the empire. The sultan of the Ottoman empire was also the Caliph, the spiritual leader of all of the world's Sunnis. The identity of the Ottoman Empire was intrinsically linked to it's status as the pre-eminent Islamic power. After the empire collapsed, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk attempted to replace this religious identity with a new secular and fairly isolationist Turk nationalism centred on Turks in Anatolia. However, the repression of muslim identity in Turkey that resulted from this eventually led to a backlash and resurgence of Islamism led by Erdogan. Erdogan is determined to break with Atatürk's ideals in key areas, and one of those is reasserting Turkey's power within it's traditional sphere of influence in the Mediterranean and middle east.

I like your commentary.

 

[Agema]

Well, Turkey has been probing those seas for months now with very little repercussions from the E.U., much to the chagrin of Greece. There is some faraway island that Greece claims that is so far away from it's shores it can no longer be really considered territorial waters but which happens to reside in an area with a huge gas reservoir. Turkey wants it, Greece claims and it's unlikely any of them will back down. But ofcourse, Greece can do nothing without E.U. support.

That is Kastellorizo.

They can look for gas all they like. If they start drilling for economic extraction in Greek territorial waters, there will be a dispute that will force the issue. The EU will not let Turkey run roughshod over Greece, but they may be prepared to agree some degree of profit-sharing. And bear in mind several EU countries like France tend to hold a tough line on Turkey.

I don't see Erdogan leaving any time soon. The 'moderates' have burned all their goodwill with years of corruption and inefficiency. Erdogan is really a representative of a resurgent nationalism and he also has the support of those who want islam back in politics. It's unlikely Erdogan will turn back the clock given Turkey's economic prosperity but it's unlikely he will give up his position as well, not in the least because he is still very popular among the electorate. As long as Turkey still has a democracy anyway, already hard at work annihilating the separation of powers.

Erdogan's support is slipping. He's still ahead, but that may change. The economy has been weakening (even without covid) and it's in the middle of a currency crisis, with rampant inflation: some economists suggest it's three times higher than official government figures. The international posturing may reflect that Turkey's fundamentals are in quite poor condition.