Loki_The_Good said:
This is only partly true though. The reason being although that those who are ingrained in technology represent a small subset of people they are also the one's that create the largest buzz about a product shaping future buying habits through reviews and word of mouth. When the mother asks which console she should get her son for Christmas its probably going to be a tech geek she's asking. This certainly won't block all sales but it gives the PlayStation 4 a distinct advantage bringing things to my second point.
Producers are showing less and less console loyalty. Even a modest difference between initial sales can be exacerbated when producers start backing the winning horse. Launch titles are usually crap that is the mistake Microsoft has made with their strategy. The long term winner isn't who starts with the most exclusives but who can secure the most long term and if the WiiU shows us anything its that producers will only go to the biggest source of revenue. With more publisher support going to the PlayStation 4 with successful launch not to mention PlayStation having not half the barriers Microsoft does to produce games, it will be hard for Microsoft to regain traction if it fumble out of the gate. Not impossible but difficult and they may never fully recover.
You bring up another issue though: "With more publisher support going to the PlayStation 4 with successful launch not to mention PlayStation having not half the barriers Microsoft does to produce games, it will be hard for Microsoft to regain traction if it fumble out of the gate."
All of that is tech blogger speculation. Nothing tangible has been shown to prove that developers prefer one console over the other. Some people are working with MS and some are working with Sony. Sony is not the underdog here, they are no different than MS, the idea that they are somehow "for the people" and MS isn't, yeah no.
The WiiU failed because it was/is a stupid idea and they made the biggest mistake you can when developing, they built something that would REQUIRE exclusivity or at the very least add development cost by creating multiple control schemes. Kinect was not perfect, but it was a glimpse of the future, hands free gaming/control.
This is not a race, IMO. There is no way for MS to fail with the Xbox One, any more than Sony will with the PS4. People WILL replace their systems, and MS has the benefit of a robust and consumer oriented online media network. NO average family, none, not a single one, is going to buy a PS4 after having had an XBOX for years. There is nothing about a PS4 that would make up for the hassle of starting their digital entertainment lives over again.
What we say here and the "buzz" generated by sites/blogs that appeal to a couple of million people will have NO bearing on sales of either. Bottom line, hard core gamers and tech geeks are not really that important.