I'm still desperately trying to make a decision. I'm looking specifically at the history of Tamriel since the Oblivion Crisis and the consequences both sides could have on its future, and an anthropological perspective on both sides.
Historically, both sides could go either way; the Imperials succeeding would suppress any force Skyrim could have offered to drive back the Aldmeri Dominion, but also would sever ties with Skyrim and would break up the Empire further, leaving no strong allies on their side (other than High Rock, which would probably end up siding with Hammerfell and Skyrim (considering its location) due to the Imperials' efforts to maintain peace with Summerset Isle stirring bad blood). A Stormcloak victory could potentially be the leverage needed to form a strong force to defeat the Aldmeri, however Skyrim and Cyrodiil would no longer be allies, and the Aldmeri would only benefit from their feud since the Empire would be effectively weakened and therefore easier to control.
Such is the nature of war that there are good and bad effects from a victory or loss.
From an anthropological perspective, the Imperials are like colonists; enforcing their own laws, customs and religion over another culture, and the Thalmor use their treaty to kill off any who go against the changes. The Nords are renown for their strong upholding of history, honour and their customs; they would hardly take any sort of other culture tarnishing their beliefs. They have the full right to pull out of the original alliance with the Empire if they believe they are not being given any power or say, and especially for the sake of preserving their culture. The Imperials, however, are not doing this out of spite; the White-Gold Concordant is signed out of necessity, and Skyrim is a part of the Empire, and should follow its agreed laws.
Remember also that both the Thalmor and the Nords are very racist; the elves believe mer is superior (hence their wanting Talos worship removed, since a man is made as great as their gods) and the Nords are, understandably, furious at the elves' actions. While neither is right to wholeheartedly believe their superiority to all others, their reaction is understandable and almost natural.
This isn't a question of Imperials vs Nords, Empire vs Skyrim - this is a question of the Empire vs the Aldmeri Dominion.
Clear as mud? Was that no help whatsoever? Good - you see why I'm having so much trouble choosing between the two.
