Sound off (Issue 53): Where will we be in 2020?

[Joe]

You've read the issue, now tell the world.

Where will gaming be in 2020?

I'll bite first: Aside from my darker predictions [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/issue/5/17], I'm honestly not sure.

I'd like to say we'll touch the mainstream and conquer it, turning burned out movie theatres into giant arcades with games like La Fuga [http://wired.com/wired/archive/14.03/lafuga.html] being affordable. I'd like to say we'll abandon the chains of retail servitude and have content the push of a touchscreen away, games spanning multiple platforms and abandoning the quest for "true to life" graphics after Moore's Law finally breaks down completely.

Oh, and holograms. Gotta have holograms.

 

[phoenixsflame [deprecated]]

I honestly think we'll have a more unified gaming front...

We'll be able to play a "game" on the console, but then we'll switch it into standby mode and download the portable engine to a handheld device. We can then focus on the same game on the handheld, lowered graphics, but it will allow us to gain power ups/certain minerals throughout our GPS range.

When we get to work, we can plug in our handheld to the work computer, and occasionally click something to continue mining/crafting/etc.

We will be completely connected, we won't have multiple computers. We'll have multiple PC's accessing a single server/computer unit. We may even, depending on the advent of Fiber Optics, completely lose the hard drive -- save on mobile technology and backup.

 

[Hitchhiker]

If I put my pessimistic hat on, I think we'll all be fighting a war of survival while Western Civilisation collapses by then. I'll take that hat right back off now, though.

Optimistic hat.

Crikey. When I think about how much videogames and technology have changed in the years I've been playing with them, it's almost impossible to predict where things may go. Anything is possible. Around the launch of PS2/XB/GC, I made an argument on the interweb that the hardware itself wasn't going to provide us with any new experiences, which I felt was pretty much unlike most other generational leaps in videogaming technology. I'm more confused by the issue with this generation.

Taking that forward, I think that hardware and technology implimentation will pretty much lead the way, with the games themselves using that technology in new and exciting ways. It could be simple connectivity, it may be the convergence of interface types (glasses with HUDs and full body controls) or it could even be the realisation of the Hollywood dram (holodecks). Whichever it is, I think the driving force will be immersion and intuitiveness; anything that gets in the way of the game, regardless what genre it is or what the aim is.

Ultimately, I hope that we actually get back to the purity of "old skool" gaming, but mixed with the technology of tomorrow.

 

[infernomatic]

The ten-year period between 1992 and 2002 yielded a 66% decline of violent crime committed by children ages 10 to 17. That's almost twice the rate of decrease of violent crime among Americans in general, which only yielded a 35% decline. It hardly seems gaming has transformed our children into the violent little devils some might have you believe

Back when I first played GTA, my wife asked me why my brother and I found the game to be so darn fascinating... I told her it was because in the game we got to do things that would get us arrested or worse in real life.

I'm of the mind that games like GTA are actually HELPING TO LOWER the crime rate by allowing us to act out our aggressions and fantasies...

 

[phoenixsflame [deprecated]]

Hey, Hitchhiker.

Start hoarding water now, remember what they've been saying for decades. The World War's of tomorrow will not be over Oil, Gold or Money, but Water.

That being said, I agree with Hitch and Infernomatic.

I would like to see the games that were played in yesteryear's "euphoric youth", ie, the time when dev's thought anything was possible, and everything could be enjoyed, in today's technological playground.

One of the things that has me excited, is the small Dev Kit cost of the Nintendo Wii, while it won't be as powerful graphically as it's two "big brothers", it will have the independent Dev's that have been itching to create games that weren't just indie hits.

 

[Bongo Bill]

By 2020, I predict, there will be a "standard" gaming platform. There will be multiple consoles, yes, and many of them will have their own proprietary format, but they'll all support this basic platform. It might upgrade every once in a while (but hopefully not). Maybe it'll be DirectX or OpenGL-based, or maybe it'll be something out of Nintendo, or a GameTap or Steam console. We currently have DVD as a video format - likewise, we'll have a single, basic, unified gaming format. All console manufacturers or game makers will pay a modest fee to license this format, and include it on their machine.

It'll play a games in that format. It'll load them off whatever the optical media du jour is, or it'll download them from the Internet (there'll be a browser and a specific game code). People will use it as a platform for many of their online games, as well. If the platform isn't GameTap or Steam itself, then at least both GameTap and Steam, or something like it, will exist here.

This is basically the alleged "Phantom" console, right? Wrong, for two reasons - one, it's much more open. There will not be just one manufacturer of it, and the manufacturer won't be the publisher either. It's just a platform. Two, it'll have to happen at a time when the console market is crashing. Console wars are essentially format wars, and three contemporary formats is two too many.

You can go on making present-style consoles afterwards, consoles that run proprietary formats and eclusive games, but hopefully that'll die out after a bit due to sluggish sales. See, this unified format is what's necessary to break into mainstream.

In Japan, Nintendo is turning the DS into a unified format for mobile gaming, though I don't think handheld gaming is a big enough idea to attract the mainstream, and needing a specific brand of hardware is likely to frighten off the timid mainstream consumer.

For mainstream, non-Flash-portal-style gaming to succeed, there needs to be the potential for hardware knockoffs. Which means that the original developer of the hardware needs to primarily take the role as licensor of the technology, let the hardware manufacturers compete on overall quality rather than "features" (from a business perspective, every game released on a console is an optional feature, and exclusive titles are selling points), and let developers not have to worry about choosing a development platform (since it'll automatically be cross-platform).

PCs already manage this to some extent. Now imagine the ease of consoles (guaranteed compatibility, no console lockdown, standardized input) with the openness of PCs (broad price spectrum, niche titles, ubiquity), plus whatever new fancy features invent in the next fourteen years (especially with regards to online play).

One format at a time. The death of exclusivity. That's what gaming needs to go mainstream.

 

[wyrmwood [deprecated]]

I don't know if a standard format is really likely. Something like a video is just pure data, and can be easily made playable on any video player. Dealing with computer code is not as cut and dry.

The future will bring a resurgence of the arcade, but in a different way. Experiencing something with others is obviouly powerful - look how SSBM or MMOs can turn simple gameplay into a lot of fun. Maybe single player games will become less stagnant, and recieve input from other players like Spore.

 

[wiper]

Lots of possibilities, depending on a whole series of fun variables, but here're some of the potentials as I see them:

Nuclear War, in which case we'll all be dead and not playing games.

Fuel Crisis, in which case we'll be thankful for the internet in enabling us to play import games and - if we're in the right jobs - work from home, and for the renewable energy sources enabling us to keep powering our machines. We might be less chuffed about our sudden difficulty in importing our machines on which to play them, however, what with oil-based transport systems being down the pan. This may be more of an issue in 2040 than 2020, mind.

Middle-East Blowout, in which case we'll be looking forward to a hundred military titles giving us desert warzones where every grain of sand will be modelled accurately.

China Economic Explosion, in which case most games will be churned out in sweatshops. Games developers moving to China from the US and Europe will note that their working conditions have actually improved.

US Economic Collapse, in which case EA will relocate to China, and every other major publisher in the US will similarly relocate, mostly to either China, Korea, Japan or Europe, depending on their needs. Football games will benefit, American football games will suffer. Standard English language character's accent will suddenly become British, with the American accent being relegated to occasional villainous roles. The Australian and Canadian accents will notice no significant change in usage.

 

[GlennZilla]

We'll have seen 3-5 console cycles beyond the current "Next Gen". Imagine the difference between the Xbox and the Xbox 360 magnified that many times.

There's also some intresting technology out there. The "BrainGate" interface is devloping. (http://www.newscientisttech.com/article/dn9540-brainimplant-enables-mind-over-matter.html)

How long until they refine the BrainGate system to not only replace controllers, keyboards, and mice but also to allow the brain to recieve input? Imagine instead of the Next Gen being the "HD Era" it's the "Brainjack Era" as manufacturers are trying to shoehorn this new technology into everyone's actual skull. Instead of telling you that 1080i and HD-DVD standards are the required technology, you should go get brain surgery to experience the next generation of gaming? Ok, I digress I'm getting a little too Cyberpunk.

Also Moore's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law) state's that PC's in 2020 will have doubled in processing power 7 times between now and then. Yeah, that could mean 128ghz processors and 512gb of RAM.

I wonder at what point will the raw horsepower of game machines weither they are PC's or Consoles will allow us to stop focusing on graphics with each iteration and instead devote a larger proportion of the power toward AI and Physics. Granted we have the WII pushing the "Gameplay Over Graphics" philosophy and Ageia's PhysX pushing the physics processor cards.

Just to get everyone thinking about it.

 

[avocado [deprecated]]

just like in the 80s when people thought by 2000 we'd have flying cars, robots and virtual reality games would be the norm i think theres alot of speculation thats a little adventurous for only 14 years in the future. I think by 2020 there'd be some difference bu not too much.

firstly i think the process of consoles becoming mostly if not entirely obsolete will begin. With all the talk of creating centralized hubs for music and videos in the "modern home" and the launch of things like windows media center etc etc i dont think it will be long before games move into this hub as well and playing consoles will be like using the fan instead of air conditioning in your car.

second i think most if not all games (in fact all purchased media) will no longer exist in any physical format like a DVD or CD. it will all be purchased online and simply downloaded to your machine.

third i reckon we re almost approaching a level of graphics that can be so realistic that it could be mistaken for reality. This begs the question what the hell are we gonna do with our 128ghz processors and 512gb ram that glenzilla was talking about. Im optimistic that the "gameplay over graphics" philosophy will eventually become the norm simply because there wont be much if anything to improve on graphics by 2020.

 

[Ramthundar]

I think by 2020, gaming will have reached it's peak in art.

Though some games today have beatifuly styles and art (Okami) I think it will still be awhile before Video-gaming is brought to an Higher_Art level. For a game to do this, it must blend beautiful music, fantastic graphics (doesn't have to be "life like"), a compelling plot with deep characters, and of course, awsome gameplay.

I think that's not to much to ask for in 11 years time.

 

[Crazie_Guy]

Buried under radiactive fallout