Why would the average spending go up when they are less players? There is no way to know if LoL had half the players that it's average spend would be the same, higher or lower. It would just be speculation.Adeptus Aspartem said:Jeah but there's an error in your thinking. If you scale down the playerbase the average spending will rise by a good chunk. There are millions of "freeloaders" in Lol which drag down the average, these are players that would never spend money anyway but LoL has such a big appeal that they play anyway. LoL has probably more non-paying costumers than most of those games on the list have as a total playerbase.Ubiquitous Duck said:It's just because, if you scale it down to a more reasonable expectation of a player base, $1.32 per gamer is not a sustainable model.
The model necessitates a massive player base, in order to make a return on your game. And for niche products or even games that just don't become a big success, they really will be seen by their business and sales analysts to of failed.
The point is that it is unreasonable to assume because LoL and TF2 can survive being F2P with almost entirely cosmetic purchases for in-game content, that it is a workable model for all developers to adopt.
Say you sold a game for $30. If you had 10,000 people buy it, you'd get £300,000. In order to make the same amount of money free to play (on an average of $1.32 spend per person), you'd need 227,272 people to get it. That's 217,272 more people or a 2,272% increase on sales/downloads.
It demands the game be a massive success or else it will be a massive failure.
It's too idealistic to assume all free to play games could be marketed with the only monetisation method as cosmetic items.
A second study that questions/checks the amount of money spend by only paying customers would be very interesting to see. Because the players i know, which are willing to spend money on LoL did so in quite a generous manner.
We once did a mini-survey in our national facebook group with maybe 100 people or so. And basically each and everyone in the group spent at least +100 bucks in the last 1-3 years (depending on their join date). I assume the "hardcore" playerbase is paying alot.
The point is that LoL and TF2 are so popular and played by so many that investing money into a game you play so much, isn't really that much of a problem for many people. Not all games can have this draw and not all games can be this popular.
A very large number of people never pay any money and get away with "freeloading", it depends on the 'whales' to make its way on the cosmetic stuff.
It's really about assuming that because LoL and TF2 can survive on cosmetics, that we should take that to mean that all F2P games could work on this basis and would be fine. This is untrue. These games are enigmas, standouts, erroneous. It is like expecting every MMO to achieve the player base WoW has and therefore discerning that MMOs are cash cows. To be truthful, a vast number of MMOs fell flat on their face in comparison to WoW.
LoL is a success, there is no doubting that. But to say that it is a good model for others to follow, is naive and would doom the vast majority of competitors to failure. Unless you 'are' these big titles, you won't be making money.
You cannot sustain games by F2P and cosmetic purchasing alone.