For year on successive year, sales records have been broke for video games: MW2 sold the best ever, then Black Ops sold the best ever, then MW3 sold the best ever. The gaming industry is now FILLED with multi-instalment franchises that release a new game annually, with virtually every new IP that sells even moderately well getting a sequel. However, at the same time as the videogame industry swells and expands, the economy does not. Across all of the most major markets for these games, the economic situation continues to deteriorate, with people all over the western world finding themselves increasingly strapped for cash to be spent on luxury items. Why should the gaming industry continue to grow when the related music and film industries contract?
The warning signs of a crash in gaming are there: Bioware's massive budget SW:ToR "failing", forcing layoffs in one of the most prosperous game developers in the world, massive over-saturation of popular military shooter AAA genre (such as the failure of Medal of Honor, underwhelming sales of Battlefield 3 and the decreasing multiplayer population retention of the Call of Duty series), the gaming landscape, scarred with the abandoned husks of failed MMO's as even the F2P model that has been so lucrative for the past 3 years starts to teeter on the brink, and all the while the Casual market, selling cheap games to people who can't afford any of the hundreds of $60/£40 titles pumped out by the AAA industry, leeches away at the "hardcore" market share.
As it becomes increasingly difficult for developers to guarantee a profit on their games, developers turn to increasingly desperate cash-grabbing methods like Project Ten Dollar, On-disc DLC and over-use of Micro-transaction mechanics, however even these are showing the strain, with the sure-fire-success DLC packs of Halo: Reach and Call of Duty's new Elite system selling well under target.
The gaming industry, whilst apparently growing to an unprecedented size and becoming one of, if not the most profitable media, has actually become a much harsher place for developers, covered by a veneer of prosperity, new IPs are strangled in their cribs and, as E3 this year has so far shown us, all most developers are willing to do is make comparatively risk-free sequels to existing franchises (even if they didn't need them): Halo 4, a new Gears of War, a new God of War, Bioshock Infinite, Borderlands 2, Farcry 3, Crysis 3, Lost Planet 3, with, obviously, new instalments in the cashcow franchises like Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed. Think of the ratio of sequels showcased as E3 2012 compared to new IPs: besides the glorified tech demos of Kinect and Move, you'll probably struggle to name more than 5 new IPs.
All of this is symptomatic of an industry bloated to a size well above what the market can afford, with archaic business models and massive over-saturation of the MMO market, both P2P and F2P and FPS market. We've already seen the Rhythm game market, just 3 years ago one of the most lucrative genres in the industry, die a sudden and absolute death, and if publishers don't get wise to what they're doing to the market, I wouldn't be surprised if we see similar crashes across the rest of the industry within the next couple of years.
The warning signs of a crash in gaming are there: Bioware's massive budget SW:ToR "failing", forcing layoffs in one of the most prosperous game developers in the world, massive over-saturation of popular military shooter AAA genre (such as the failure of Medal of Honor, underwhelming sales of Battlefield 3 and the decreasing multiplayer population retention of the Call of Duty series), the gaming landscape, scarred with the abandoned husks of failed MMO's as even the F2P model that has been so lucrative for the past 3 years starts to teeter on the brink, and all the while the Casual market, selling cheap games to people who can't afford any of the hundreds of $60/£40 titles pumped out by the AAA industry, leeches away at the "hardcore" market share.
As it becomes increasingly difficult for developers to guarantee a profit on their games, developers turn to increasingly desperate cash-grabbing methods like Project Ten Dollar, On-disc DLC and over-use of Micro-transaction mechanics, however even these are showing the strain, with the sure-fire-success DLC packs of Halo: Reach and Call of Duty's new Elite system selling well under target.
The gaming industry, whilst apparently growing to an unprecedented size and becoming one of, if not the most profitable media, has actually become a much harsher place for developers, covered by a veneer of prosperity, new IPs are strangled in their cribs and, as E3 this year has so far shown us, all most developers are willing to do is make comparatively risk-free sequels to existing franchises (even if they didn't need them): Halo 4, a new Gears of War, a new God of War, Bioshock Infinite, Borderlands 2, Farcry 3, Crysis 3, Lost Planet 3, with, obviously, new instalments in the cashcow franchises like Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed. Think of the ratio of sequels showcased as E3 2012 compared to new IPs: besides the glorified tech demos of Kinect and Move, you'll probably struggle to name more than 5 new IPs.
All of this is symptomatic of an industry bloated to a size well above what the market can afford, with archaic business models and massive over-saturation of the MMO market, both P2P and F2P and FPS market. We've already seen the Rhythm game market, just 3 years ago one of the most lucrative genres in the industry, die a sudden and absolute death, and if publishers don't get wise to what they're doing to the market, I wouldn't be surprised if we see similar crashes across the rest of the industry within the next couple of years.
