"Thin Tail" Call of Duty Drags Down Sales

[Andy Chalk]

"Thin Tail" Call of Duty Drags Down Sales

The month of March is expected to be a bad one for the videogame industry and it's all the fault of the Call of Duty franchise.

Okay, so it's probably not "all" CoD's fault, but the inability of Call of Duty: Black Ops [http://www.amazon.com/Call-Duty-Modern-Warfare-Xbox-360/dp/B00503E8S2/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1334185781&sr=8-1]. Black Ops was the fifth-best-selling title in March 2011 but Modern Warfare 3 is expected to be only the eighth-best-seller, with less than half the sales for the same month in 2012.

The real bad news for the industry, if Olson is correct, is that it's not an isolated Call of Duty phenomenon. "We believe big name titles are no longer able to sustain 'fat tails'," he said. "This 'thinning tail' phenomenon is driven by, one, casual gamers leaving the market, two, a steeper pre-sale and up-front curve, and three, cannibalization from the pre-owned market."

But for right now, Modern Warfare's failure to pull its weight is a big reason why March is expected to be an ugly month for videogame sales. Olson predicts the NPD Group will report a year-over-year decline in software revenues of 26 percent, a nasty drop that's pretty much in line with similar predictions from analysts Michael Pachter, Doug Creutz and Arvind Bhatia, who collectively expect a slide of anywhere from 22 to 30 percent.

Source: Gamasutra [http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/168363/Call_of_Dutys_longterm_sales_effect_may_be_diminishing_says_analyst.php]


Permalink

 

[mattttherman3]

OR, and this is just a thought, you released the exact same game 3 times with no real changes. If you want people to play MW3, cut online service of MW and MW2. Plus that elite service thing probably doesn't help. Or perhaps, since MW3 sold so well, alot of those same people bought the game when it first came out, who knows.

 

[MrBrightside919]

"Oh no! The consumers are growing brain cells!

How are we going to drain them of their money now?"

That's how I imagine the creators are reacting right now...

...I still get a kick of the "tail" analogy thing...hilarious

 

[Richardplex]

OR, and this is just a thought, you released the exact same game 3 times with no real changes. If you want people to play MW3, cut online service of MW and MW2. Plus that elite service thing probably doesn't help. Or perhaps, since MW3 sold so well, alot of those same people bought the game when it first came out, who knows.

It's a 22-30% drop for the whole industry on average, 50% for CoD. AT least that's how I understood it.

 

[Soviet Heavy]

Perhaps we are seeing a shift from the AAA market to less expensive titles more willing to take risks?

 

[The Artificially Prolonged]

Or more likely by march everyone and their dog already has MW3, and the fact that many better games have been released in the same year.

 

[MammothBlade]

Not to revel in Schadenfreude too much, but I think this is good news, a sign that CoD as a franchise has peaked and is going into decline. If overall sales are declining, that's because a chunk of CoD players are not enthusiastic gamers and instead of trying out other games, will just sell their consoles and exit the market altogether. Good riddance.

Also, I am picturing Captain Price riding on a comet, for some reason.

 

[Amnestic]

Noted video game analyst Amnestic today noted that a recent drop in video games sales was likely due to the fact that nothing really awesome came out and so most people were playing things they already owned or spending their entertainment money elsewhere. Noted video game analyst Amnestic believes that pointing to the 2011 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_in_video_gaming] and 2012 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_in_video_gaming] release schedules for Q1 of both years should validate his thoughts. Noted video game analyst Amnestic would particularly draw reader's attention to Pokémon Black/White which were released in March 2011. A release which drew record sales for the series. [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.269381-U-S-Catches-1-Million-Copies-of-Pokemon-Black-White]

Noted video game analyst Amnestic also wonders why his statements don't get more press.

 

[Therumancer]

I have to concur with a lot of the responses so far. It says a lot for people in the gaming industry to be so out of touch with reality. Yes CoD was a big franchise, but nothing is forever, especially when they start trying to nickel and dime people to the extent they have been, and cease to innovate with their products. I can't remember hearing anything GOOD about this "Elite" service they are pushing for example, and it's surprising they aren't making any connections that it might not have been a good idea.

Used game sales are a joke, since they have been there all along, that's a general boogie man to blame for every failing. The casual market is a good point, though I think it's less an issue with people leaving as much as casual gamers that have been suckered with low end products and simplified games for premium prices are growing up and becoming serious gamers in many cases. Someone who started with a "casual" type game like a shooter an 8 year old is capable of playing, probably had fun, and wants to game more, but wants more from the products. Not to mention there are only so many times companies can slap even the casual market with vampire-like microtransactions before they start to catch on.

I mean really, over a few years there were plenty of dumb kids and casuals willing to dump $15 on a couple of multiplayer maps, and the assumption people were going to do this became an increasing part of the marketing plan. I'm kind of insulted that it seems guys in the game industry expected that to go on forever, and that this kind of thing, especially combined with things like the "Elite" service was going to go on forever, and people wouldn't eventually realize how badly they were being screwed.

 

[Vault101]

Perhaps we are seeing a shift from the AAA market to less expensive titles more willing to take risks?

call of duty does not = entire AAA market

 

[Vault101]

Noted video game analyst Amnestic today noted that a recent drop in video games sales was likely due to the fact that nothing really awesome came out and so most people were playing things they already owned or spending their entertainment money elsewhere. Noted video game analyst Amnestic believes that pointing to the 2011 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_in_video_gaming] and 2012 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_in_video_gaming] release schedules for Q1 of both years should validate his thoughts. Noted video game analyst Amnestic would particularly draw reader's attention to Pokémon Black/White which were released in March 2011. A release which drew record sales for the series. [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.269381-U-S-Catches-1-Million-Copies-of-Pokemon-Black-White]

Noted video game analyst Amnestic also wonders why his statements don't get more press.

playing a game you already own?...or...or..REPLAYING somthing? the nerve of those people!

they shouldl be lining up at the shops like good little consumers

 

[mattttherman3]

OR, and this is just a thought, you released the exact same game 3 times with no real changes. If you want people to play MW3, cut online service of MW and MW2. Plus that elite service thing probably doesn't help. Or perhaps, since MW3 sold so well, alot of those same people bought the game when it first came out, who knows.

Don't be silly! This is OBVIOUSLY the fault of used games sales and pirates.
also immigrants
and gay marriage

A friend of mine, who loves cod and went to midight launch of COD, traded it in within a week because of some subtle changes that he couldnt describe, so maybe there is something to it, but I really don't care, activision doesn't publish any of my favorite games, so they can fold for all I care

 

[lancar]

Good.
Call of Duty and Modern Warface are cash-in titles, and as such deserve to sell less to discourage creation of more non-innovative sequels.

I don't believe for a second the nitwits at EA or Activision won't immediately ramp up the blame game against used game sales, though. It's the trendy industry scapegoat right now.

When/if everything becomes digital distribution, however, piracy will return as the number 1 reason why bad games don't sell as much as they'd want, and status quo will be restored.

 

[dyre]

What? I don't get it. So, for whatever reason, people aren't buying MW3 anymore (probably because whoever wants it already has it, but w/e)...and thus people won't buy any other games either? I don't see a cause and effect here. It seems that CoD is just one of many victims of people not wanting to buy video games in March...

 

[JuliusMagnus]

I just realized I've only bought 3 games in the last half year: Skyrim, Reckoning and Crusader Kings II. And I've probably spend 250 hours between them.

I'm lying again. I also bought Planescape Torment and Borderlands a month ago at a sale that a certain store was running and I haven't even unwrapped them.

And now that I think about it I also backed four Kickstarter-funded games. Games I won't even play for months or years.

There are probably ten games I'd still like to buy and play that were released in October-November 2011. But Borderlands was one of those games 'I was gonna get to' in early 2010 and now in early 2012 was when I actually bought it.

I do question the analists equation of a market leader doing worse translating into the industry as a whole doing worse. I'd be interesting if they compared the size of the 'tail' of other games released in the same period.

 

[Something Amyss]

Maybe you CAN'T just crank out the same game thirty times.

Don't be silly! This is OBVIOUSLY the fault of used games sales and pirates.
also immigrants
and gay marriage

Oh, right, my bad.

call of duty does not = entire AAA market

No, but as this article covers more than CoD, that's kind of meaningless.

playing a game you already own?...or...or..REPLAYING somthing? the nerve of those people!

they shouldl be lining up at the shops like good little consumers

Oh dear, you've stumbled on their next campaign.

"Well, we've screwed over people who buy used...Let's make a replay pass so that we can get extra money if they go back to an old game instead of buying a new one."

 

[Vrach]

Wait, I'm confused, why is an article talking about the expected sales during March being published halfway through April?