ZZoMBiE13 said:
Lightknight said:
extreme pruning (i.e. snip)
Sniiiip
Just a few things; this isn't intended to be a rebuttal or argument, but the reason I'm replying directly to you is mostly cause you strike me as a reasonable chap, and I am thus curious as to your input. =D
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The Reveal!
The issue with the reveal, from my point of view, did bring to mind that old saying that has been tossed about, "Jack of All Trades, Master of None." The reveal was largely intended for the Press, which was fairly obvious given the TV, Football, Skype focus, as it seemed almost crafted to throw out the idea that the Xbox One was not 'just a game console,' but instead intended to be this big, flexible, do-it-all multi-tool. Yusuf Mehdi himself said as much, to quote; "We think you can go broader than a game console, that?s our aim, and you can go from 400 million (for the entire console generation, mind you) to potentially upwards of a billion units. That?s how we?re thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward." They're not just looking to gain gamers as their core audience, they're looking to draw in TV watching aficionados, football fanatics, etc, etc. A recent release from the 'Director of Consumer Camp' at Microsoft has even said; "What is being positioned as an excellent entertainment device can be just as enticing for you and your small business. In fact, it?s entirely justifiable to make the Xbox One a business expense. The Xbox One, priced at $499 [£429], is an affordable option for small business owners, as there are many features built into the console that could help it rival even the most modest of video conferencing and networking platforms."
Here's the rub; normally, we think about the number of consoles sold because it can have a correlation to the size of market that game publishers and developers have to spread their product around. More game consoles sold means more consumers ready to buy the newest FPS, and while there is some spread in the market- some might prefer RPGs, or loathe puzzle games- you at least know that you have a solid market of gamers to cater to.
But what, then, if you no longer have that assurance? What if the install base isn't populated mostly by gamers? Even if you have a certain console outselling another two-to-one, if the superior-selling platform's available market has less interest in the purchase of games- or, for that matter, big publisher titles- than even the console selling LESS total units can provide a more appealing market for larger publishers. Much like how the Kinect sold 24 million units, but a low attach rate and relative lack of interest in Kinect-only titles kept development on that platform pretty sluggish. It wasn't that they didn't sell an impressive number- 24 million is impressive, after all- but if that large bulk of moved units isn't accompanied by a large number of Kinect-y games purchased, publishers are going to steer clear pretty quickly... especially if they're third-party, and can make loads more money by selling a cross-platform title. It's why cross-platforms are unlikely to have more than 'Wii Waggle' when it comes to the Kinect, as few developers will pack on loads of exclusive content or features when it only benefits one segment of the market.
Or, as another example, there was a time when the Wii was gaining flak from the 'core gamer' market as being more interested in catering to the 'casual gaming' crowd with innumerable Wii-Sports-And-Friends. As someone who never owned a Wii, I am admittedly going on Internet rumblings (and some of my friends' grumblings) more than anything else, but what might then happen if the Casual Gamer Market just turns into the Casual Market?
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Innovation!
I should point out that everything is relative. The Kinect 2.0 is a better version of the original Kinect, which is a better version than the Playstation Eye, which is a better version of the EyeToy... the belief that packaging it with every system will improve the development base has had two defects; first, there is still no explanation as to why it cannot be unplugged and stored away UNTIL someone wishes to use it, (which in the wake of the PRISM leaks could prove disastrous,) and second, Microsoft has yet to announce anything genuinely groundbreaking on the gaming market that absolutely NEEDS the Kinect. Ryse was a 360 Kinect game originally, but even now, on the X1, is a controller-centric affair. D4, a touted Kinect title, will be playable with controller. These policies, this mandatory attachment, would be a great deal easier to swallow if there was a carrot of similar size to match the stick.
As for innovation in policies, they didn't do enough. They tried to insist that digital was the future, that disc-based media was dying or dead, and yet they're still releasing numerous titles ON disc. It was a hypocrisy that made their claims about moving towards the Future ridiculous, because it all boiled right back to Jack of All Trades; it's unlikely they would ever drop disc-based games in the X1's lifespan, and instead decided to just strip what benefits could be found from physical media by making it 'Exactly Like' digital purchases, to try and essentially shoehorn the market into buying games online anyway cause, you know, why drive to the store if the physical game's capabilities and policies are identical to the digital's? Only once everyone had already stopped buying game discs, with no profit left to be had, would they dare leaving the market behind.
If they had wanted to really move forward, they should have taken that extra step and made the console a digital-only affair. No disc-based game sales at all, everything purchased online. Sure, it would have resulted in backlash all its own, but at least the lines would have been drawn in the sand; "If you don't want to download all your games, this console is not for you." Instead, they were trying to make it Same As Before, But Not, and the unwillingness to commit to one side or another just hurt them considerably.
In any case, removing the capabilities of one medium is trying to negatively entice your market, by taking something away from them and insisting that what you're giving instead is 'Better.' Maybe it is, but when you're causing them to lose something they had before, generally a market will focus on that first and foremost. Just look at the PS+ being needed for most multiplayer on the PS4; while the backlash isn't nearly as grumbly as it had been for Microsoft back during the 360 launch, there are still plenty of people horrified, even though PS3 multiplayer remains free.
Far more effective, in any case, is positive enticement, and in that respect, Microsoft's been well behind. Look at what Sony has done over the past couple of years. They added Day One Digitals to their market, as did Nintendo something designed to blur the lines between physical and retail copies in a way that could improve the lot of those who took advantage of it, but did not in any way effect those who could or would not buy it online. Microsoft is only now catching up to that, after having previously stated they saw no point in doing so. They added the Playstation Plus program, which was in my opinion a very crafty way to work up to pay-to-play multiplayer, but also had a side benefit; the free games got you through the door, true enough, but the discounts it offered on select titles also encouraged people to browse and make constant, perpetual use of the Store, if only to take a gander at these cheaper games.
They gave you perks and toys that, yes, NEEDED a strong connection and an unlimited data cap, but without taking from those who had neither. These were small, subtle changes and programs, nothing big, brash and spectacular like the Xbox One's 'Future of Gaming' vision, but it certainly seems to have served Sony a lot better than a 24-hour-checkin served Microsoft.
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Now! Self-publishing!
There have been rumors that Xbox One will be dropping its no-self-publishing restrictions, but frankly, this would surprise me CONSIDERABLY, because in the end, small, cheap indie games would become a massive market on a console that may be (as my first section postulated) more adopted by the 'casual' crowd. Indeed, such reasonable pricing has in part fueled the great success of smartphone and tablet gaming, and it could become a genuine tour de force in the near future for consoles.
But wouldn't this mean Microsoft is MORE likely to make it indie friendly? Ehhh...
The thing about it is, how likely would Microsoft be to drop policies that allow it to profit so readily from what is sure to be a huge market? How likely are Publishers going to react favorably to them being dropped, given they profit considerably as well? Current Xbox Live requirements for indie games necessitate that an independent developer cannot release on the Arcade unless he signs up with a disc-based publisher. The time, money and effort invested into securing said publisher generally results in the difficulty of publishing on the Xbox One GREATLY exceeding that of the other platforms. In addition, if you cannot find a Publisher who wants to take you on (and many won't if you don't agree to cut them in on revenue from ALL the platforms you sell on, not just the 360,) you can instead sign on with Microsoft directly. This is where the profiting comes in, because this means Microsoft will be taking a publishing revenue cut, as well as the platform cut, and their deals include a period of timed exclusivity that prevent you from publishing anywhere else for 'x' period of time. This isn't even including the fact that whatever Publisher you end up with, they are the ones with full control over just when your game gets released.
Here's a video, from the developer of Retro City Rampage; he's notable in that he single-handedly organized to have his game released on multiple platforms, and thus offers a unique perspective on the various differences. Truth be told, the entire video is quite interesting, but for the sake of my point, advance to around 33 minutes in; he starts presenting graphs indicating both the Units Sold, Revenue Made, Time Spent and Money Invested for each platform.
http://indiegames.com/2013/06/video_shipping_retro_city_ramp.html
The resulting imbalance might suggest why, even though these policies would technically benefit the publishers and Microsoft itself, it can only hurt the future of the console's available indie material, especially since this dev isn't the first to criticize Microsoft's policies.
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History Repeats!
Finally... well... all of the hullabaloo that has been going on begins to look rather suspiciously like what Sony went through for its PS3 pre-launch, and look at where that got the console. The PR for it was terrible, legitimately terrible, with the sort of arrogance and 'You WILL Buy This' mentality that, to quote from a 2007 article re-released a few years later, had Sony "take one of the most anticipated game consoles of all time and - within the space of a year - turn it into a hate object reviled by the entire internet. - See more at: http://www.gamesradar.com/the-top-7-pr-disasters/?page=7#sthash.154YE0Zm.dpuf "
That's essentially what Microsoft managed to do with the Xbox One. Like Sony's Playstation 2, the Xbox 360 enjoyed considerable dominance in the U.S., and very strong showing in the U.K. But now, like the Playstation 3, the One has found itself with one heck of an uphill climb to even regain parity in markets that were once notably leaning in its favor.
Now, as you said, they've reacted surprisingly quickly in reversing these policies, but the problem is that, unlike Sony, who through Cerny's Gamelab presentation admitted that they screwed up when it came to designing a Rubix cube of a Cell processor for the PS3, Microsoft's only admittance has been that 'They didn't explain it well enough.' Which is true, but nonetheless insinuates that they knew better than the people they wished to buy the console, and simply did not succeed in sharing this wisdom adequately, which is perhaps why many have looked upon these apologies with more than a little scorn. It sounded like 'I'm sorry you didn't understand how @@*&@ing awesome my idea is.'
Furthermore, there is the issue that they've basically adopted an almost Steford Wives cheeriness to the console, regardless of what happens. They spent over a week constantly building up the console, constantly assuring everyone this was the Future, (Major Nelson used this word alot, it should be noted,) only to completely u-turn on them ....and then, in an interview where they spoke of the reversal, they said they felt good about what the console was now.
In essence, it puts out the image that Microsoft would be cheerfully upselling this product even if it were actively on fire, and while the same could be said for any company, it becomes another matter when it is so blatant and obvious to behold. You begin to ask yourself the question that no company would ever like to cross your mind... "What else are they bull@#&@ing about?"
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It all highlights a key point; in the end, it doesn't matter how innovative or fantastic a product is. It doesn't even matter how much official positive PR is thrown out there to tell people how innovative or fantastic a product is. If the general, vocal populace believes that the product does not serve their needs or, worse, that the product is being designed to somehow work against them, than all public opinion on the system essentially implodes. It doesn't matter if a Kinect 2.0 camera WILL ever spy on you, your family, etc, but when you combine the revelations of a foreign monitoring program, which Microsoft is a part of, additional leaks by Snowden suggesting MS facilitated access to Skype's video data for the NSA, and combine it with the information that the newest console has a camera that can be 'turned off' but never physically disconnected for 'reasons,' the most positive one being that it's so the camera can be used for targeted advertisements, then there are plenty of people who just aren't that eager to take a multi-billion dollar company's word for it. Again, it is not about what the camera IS doing, sales will be influenced by what people think the camera MIGHT be doing, or COULD do. Some won't care, some will.
While it is true that, yes, polls can easily be skewed and therefore individually should not be relied upon, when a vast majority of polls not specifically hosted on a Sony or Microsoft friendly site, it does start to show a pattern, especially when measured against pre-order trends. Microsoft has greatly weakened its hold on the U.S. It has all but destroyed its standing in the U.K. While there are six months to go, and things could change, it does appear that Microsoft is going to need to MAKE more changes, rather than the problem just vanishing on its own.
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On a side note, intended mostly for you, ZZombie13, would recommend keeping an eye on GamesCom this August; both Sony and Microsoft have announced they will be revealing new games that they've kept in hiding. =D My personal interests partially derive from the fact that I'm not normally a PC gamer, so some of the Free to Play ports coming to the PS4, like Planetside 2, Warframe, Blacklight Retribution, etc, etc, all have me muchly interested. That being said, I do agree that Sony's E3 show was pretty weak sauce, though some part of me wonders if they scrapped half of their planned reveals because they realized that Microsoft's original policies offered a bright red target and they wanted more time to poke it with a sharp stick. xP