female-20 years
atheist-50-60 years
gay-120 years
outsiders perspective
Hilary Clinton could have possibly president, I think she was defeated more because she was a Clinton than she was a woman, that said, Republicans will not nominate a female candidate in the next 50 years and if you follow the normal american political cycle, Republicans will probably be in power till 2020/2024 at least
Atheists come next because they although they are a huge minority, they are geographically spread out and Humanism seems to have a growing voice in american culture and politics.
Homosexual comes far last for three reasons.
1. The vocal gay public in america is limited to a couple of urban areas, even with 100% of these areas supporting a gay candidate he would not win
2. Unlike atheism/humanism or feminism gay rights movements seem to have a shrinking representation in American culture. Think how many films/tv shows) have had a "strong female lead"(or at least a stab at one) in the last twenty years. Now think of ALL the compelling gay protagonists...I can think of...two that gained huge success: Philadelphia and Milk. Both were commentaries on homophobia not stories that happened to have gay protagonists.
3. Homosexualilty is more polarising than feminism or atheism, especially among the young, and the 18-25 are an incredibly important demographic in elections (they are easy to motivate emotionally, they are less likely to be set in their ways politically). The image of american young men, especially from outside america (jump on this point if you want), is consisatantly homophobic, even violently so (Brandon McInerny, consistant anti-gay marriage movements, rick perry, rick santorum).
atheist-50-60 years
gay-120 years
outsiders perspective
Hilary Clinton could have possibly president, I think she was defeated more because she was a Clinton than she was a woman, that said, Republicans will not nominate a female candidate in the next 50 years and if you follow the normal american political cycle, Republicans will probably be in power till 2020/2024 at least
Atheists come next because they although they are a huge minority, they are geographically spread out and Humanism seems to have a growing voice in american culture and politics.
Homosexual comes far last for three reasons.
1. The vocal gay public in america is limited to a couple of urban areas, even with 100% of these areas supporting a gay candidate he would not win
2. Unlike atheism/humanism or feminism gay rights movements seem to have a shrinking representation in American culture. Think how many films/tv shows) have had a "strong female lead"(or at least a stab at one) in the last twenty years. Now think of ALL the compelling gay protagonists...I can think of...two that gained huge success: Philadelphia and Milk. Both were commentaries on homophobia not stories that happened to have gay protagonists.
3. Homosexualilty is more polarising than feminism or atheism, especially among the young, and the 18-25 are an incredibly important demographic in elections (they are easy to motivate emotionally, they are less likely to be set in their ways politically). The image of american young men, especially from outside america (jump on this point if you want), is consisatantly homophobic, even violently so (Brandon McInerny, consistant anti-gay marriage movements, rick perry, rick santorum).