1/7000000000000 or 50/50
- Thread starter Zersy
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No, you cannot be that dumb. No I refuse to think your serious, no way.
If the button randomly kills one person int eh world then the pool of people, i.e. everyone int he world is several billion and it randomly selects one so its one in several billion. If the button either kill or didn't kill your friend specifically then there would be a 50/50 chance. Now stop trolling the forums.
If the button randomly kills one person int eh world then the pool of people, i.e. everyone int he world is several billion and it randomly selects one so its one in several billion. If the button either kill or didn't kill your friend specifically then there would be a 50/50 chance. Now stop trolling the forums.
You are both right but are looking at from different views.
Yes it's 50/50 your friend will either die or not but it's also a 1/7billion chance he will die.
You are looking at the odds of him being killed or not they are looking at the odds of him being killed in a pool of 7 billion people.
Yes it's 50/50 your friend will either die or not but it's also a 1/7billion chance he will die.
You are looking at the odds of him being killed or not they are looking at the odds of him being killed in a pool of 7 billion people.
It's more complex than is generally acknowledged. Dependence is a philosophically difficult notion. We generally assume that "Whenever A, then not B" type examples are good enough to make the general point, but this rests on (admittedly useful) classical assumptions about the logical division of states when people are more combinatorial and intuitionist than that.SirBryghtside said:
In other words, cut the guy some slack.
It's 1 in 7 billion...
There are not just two outcomes... your friend can die, or your friend can live and person 1 dies, or your friend can live and person 2 dies, or your friend can live and person 3 dies, or..., or your friend can live and the (N-1)th person will die.
There are not just two outcomes... your friend can die, or your friend can live and person 1 dies, or your friend can live and person 2 dies, or your friend can live and person 3 dies, or..., or your friend can live and the (N-1)th person will die.
The 2 given probabilities are BOTH correct but for DIFFERENT events.UNKNOWNINCOGNITO said:
The chance of your friend SPECIFICALLY dying is 50/50, there is two possibilities. Dead or alive.
HOWEVER the chance of him being chosen to die out of everyone is 1 to 7 billion because he is 1 out of 7 billion.
Just because it's random does not make it 50/50 for him being chosen, infact it specifically makes it fair for all, because it's random anyone has an equal chance so it's 1 out of 7 billion.
1 in 7 billion. Probability works as the desired outcome over the possible outcomes. Your best friend being killed is one possible outcome but there are 7 billion possible outcomes. Everyone has an equal chance to die so it's 1 in 7 billion.UNKNOWNINCOGNITO said:
I shouldn't have to explain this to you. What the hell kind of math are they teaching the kids nowadays?
Whilst I wouldn't phrase it that way, there is some truth behind this ...alexhj said:
Since you aren't forced to push the button, you can - at any time - decide not to do so, which in return grants the primary 50/50 chance of you not pushing the button. That said, the chance of killing one exact individual through pushing the button is 1/(7*10^9).
Given this, the chance of you killing your friend is in fact 1/2 * 1/(7*10^9) = 1/(14*10^9).
(Just to stir this one up a bit more ... Since we all know what caused this *glares at ret*)
Only the 1/7 billion probability is correct. 50/50 would assume that each outcome is ENTIRELY INDISTINGUISHABLE (which is only possible if there are a max of 2 people)-- if there are 7 billion people other than the friend that could die, then an outcome where the friend lives and person 1 dies is NOT equivalent to the friend living and person 2 dying, etc.Weslebear said:
50/50 would be correct only in the event that there are 2 people who may die as a result of pressing the button. Alternatively, 50/50 would apply if no one other than the friend could die.
to the people that say 50/50: i see you logic, but it is faulty logic because if it were 50/50 chance, then you would kill 4.5 billion people, and your friend is either in the half that dies, or is not. in this case, yes, it does work
BUT we are looking for the chance, that your friend alone, RANDOMLY chosen from 7 billion, dies, and no one else. the chance of that happening is then 1/7 billion
i am sorry for degrading my self to "ad hominem" right now: people that say 50/50, i beg of you, please take statics courses that your school gives you. only than can you be enlightened.
BUT we are looking for the chance, that your friend alone, RANDOMLY chosen from 7 billion, dies, and no one else. the chance of that happening is then 1/7 billion
i am sorry for degrading my self to "ad hominem" right now: people that say 50/50, i beg of you, please take statics courses that your school gives you. only than can you be enlightened.
You detest philosophy? Interesting philosophy.SirBryghtside said:
... Sorry, couldn't help myself
on matters such as this, I 100% agree with you. This is about probability, not whatever he's talking about. Cold, hard numbers.Except no. We aren't talking that. We're talking whether or not (I seriously can't believe people even had to explain this) his friend dies when he presses the button. The button kills one of the 7 billion people on the planet at random. From his point of view, yes- either his friend lives or dies. But we're talking about the actual odds that he dies if the button is pressed.4173 said:
Look at it this way:
1 Button Press = 1 Dead Person other than the OP
People other than the OP = 7 Billion
OP's Friend = 1
In order for the outcome to be 50/50, OP's friend would have to equal half of the people other than the OP. 1/2 of 7 billion is 3.5 billion. His friend is only 1. That means that he is 1 out of 7 billion. And there are the odds. 1 out of 7 billion.
And I swear, don't even try and prove me wrong. Because you will be wrong. This is how probability works when you're just looking at the numbers.
Obviously it is 50/50.
just like it is a 50/50 chance of you doing the impossible
or a 50/50 chance of spontanteously exploding
or a 50/50 chance God is real
or a 50/50 chance I am typing this
or a 50/50 chance you have a name
or a 50/50 chance you exist
or a 50/50 chance you are trolling
or a 50/50 chance you will understand this
or a 50/50 chance that I will eventually run out of examples
or a 50/50 chance that the government staged 9/11
or a 50/50 chance Santa Clause exists
or a 50/50 chance the button you talk about actually exists
or a 50/50 chance that my name is Author Dent
or a 50/50 chance that this is not a 50/50 chance.
just like it is a 50/50 chance of you doing the impossible
or a 50/50 chance of spontanteously exploding
or a 50/50 chance God is real
or a 50/50 chance I am typing this
or a 50/50 chance you have a name
or a 50/50 chance you exist
or a 50/50 chance you are trolling
or a 50/50 chance you will understand this
or a 50/50 chance that I will eventually run out of examples
or a 50/50 chance that the government staged 9/11
or a 50/50 chance Santa Clause exists
or a 50/50 chance the button you talk about actually exists
or a 50/50 chance that my name is Author Dent
or a 50/50 chance that this is not a 50/50 chance.