1/7000000000000 or 50/50

[The_root_of_all_evil]

1 in 7 million obviously.

Your reasoning is flawed in that it would be depenedent on who is your best friend. Which it isn't.

 

[joshthor]

the chances of it killing him are 1 in 7 billion.

the chances of him dieing is 50/50 (only 2 options)

 

[Queen Michael]

You know, that there's two different possible outcomes (in this case, either your best friend dies or he doesn't) doesn't automatically mean that there's a 50/50 chance between them.

 

[TiloXofXTanto]

The chance is 1/7,000,000,000

There is, seemingly, a 50/50 chance he will die, due to the fact that, related to him, there are only two outcomes, but the act of pushing the button is the event that you use. Since the button kills one person in the world, and there are roughly 7 billion people on Earth, the chance is 1 death out of 7 billion possible deaths.

If you were pushing a button that would either kill your friend or not kill your friend, then the chance would be 50/50, there being only two outcomes. However, the button has 7 billion outcomes as opposed to two.

 

[souper soup guy]

I don't think probability works that way
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-april-30-2009/large-hadron-collider

50/50. You either kill him, or you don't.

 

[Aegixx]

50/50?
Seriously?
How could anyone think that?
The kind of logic, or lake thereof, means there's a 50/50 chance for pretty much EVERYTHING in the universe.
I'll just buy 20 lottery tickets. Chances are, 10 of them will win.
*sigh*

 

[James13v]

1/population of the world. If the statement were "it would kill him, or it wont", then it would be 50/50.

 

[Caravelle]

The kind of logic, or lake thereof, means there's a 50/50 chance for pretty much EVERYTHING in the universe.

I've seen a youtube guy do better, with a proof of God along these lines : God exists or doesn't : the odds are 50/50. But ! We have some evidence for God's existence : the Bible ! (or was it that everything needs a creator ? either way...). That puts the odds of God's existence at 51%!
Therefore, odds are God exists.

 

[Dr Druza]

I always think of these type of things as 50/50, because ultimately, you can re-do that event 1,000 times over and kill your friend in every instance. Because of this fact, the 1/7 BIL becomes irrelevant.

However, the question of whether you use 50/50 or 1/7 BIL is a matter of how you phrase the question:
Chances of friend dying vs anyone else: 50/50
Chances of friend dying vs someone else: 1/7 BIL
Someone being one person, anyone being the collective 7 BIL people represented as one "person" (anyone).
I think that makes sense...

Statistics don't tell you what will happen, they tell you what to expect.

EDIT:

1/population of the world. If the statement were "it would kill him, or it wont", then it would be 50/50.

That's what I was trying to say...

 

[RatRace123]

In a way, everything is 50/50, because everything will either happen OR it won't.

 

[crop52]

You here, just because there's only two possible outcomes does not mean that there's a 50/50 chance of one of those outcomes happening. That's not how probability works.

Stop being pseudo-intellectuals.

Edit: Wait a darn minute, there's more than two possible outcomes. There's seven million possible outcomes.

 

[Yeager942]

2 friends of mine instead say that the chances are 1 to 7 billion (assuming there are still 7 billion people on earth

should be 1 to 6999999999999. None of you are right.

I lol'd.

Know I feel bad. D:

 

[Anodos]

Depends if youre in a twilight zone episode or not...

 

[2xDouble]

The literal odds are 1 in 7 billion. The actual odds are closer to 1 in 1, because that's how a "deal with the devil" works, unless otherwise specified ("it won't be anyone you know"). Even there are always loopholes letting "Satan" screw you over anyway, i.e. killing someone you meet later and learn to love, or your next/first child when you/your wife isn't pregnant, or killing someone driving a car near you which causes an accident resulting in the deaths of your loved ones, or some such thing.

 

[AdumbroDeus]

Okay I've been trying to wrap my head around this and cannot make exact logical sense in it. If I were to push a button and the result of doing so shall randomly kill a person in the world what are the chances of it being my best friend ?

My argument is that it would 50/50 of it being my friend since the process is random and no one is favoured in anyway so it is either it is him or it is not him.

2 friends of mine instead say that the chances are 1 to 7 billion (assuming there are still 7 billion people on earth) that someone I know shall get axed from the random process.

I ask you escapist which one is it and why ?

Wow.

Assuming a fair roll (which is given when you say "randomly") then there are over 7 billion ways for it to be not your best friend whereas only one way for it to be your best friend, and there's an even chance for all of those potential outcomes.

Which means 1/[insert number of people who live on earth]


I HOPE you're not in high school yet otherwise just another reason for me to lose hope in the school system.

 

[subjectseven]

The way you see it, there is a 50/50 chance, which is right, in a sense.

But the odds of your friend dying are actually the 1 to 7 billion. To you, its a 50/50.

This is true. I second this particular answer. I think the confusion lies with how you've framed the question. At this point, there is no right answer.

 

[Extra-Ordinary]

The way you see it, there is a 50/50 chance, which is right, in a sense.

But the odds of your friend dying are actually the 1 to 7 billion. To you, its a 50/50.

That's how I see it. Scientifically (or mathematically, whatever) the odds are 1/6999999999 because of the number of people. Philisophically, it's 50/50 because it's either him, or not.

 

[Denamic]

Wow, I have to go buy lottery tickets, because I apparently have a 50% chance to score a win.

I don't want to live on this planet any more.

 

[Vhite]

I agree. If you did it 1000 times and your best friend would be still alive then the truth would be noticable howover when you do it just once you have no idea what might happen because there always is chance that it would be him so it would be 50/50.

So so wrong.

It is not him and someone else, but him and 7 billion other people, each just as likely as each other to die making it 1:7000000000

All the maths fail in this thread makes me want to cry =(

I was talking about mentality of this problem rather than mathematical chance...