Nickolai77 said:
Yeah a Greek exit from the Euro would be very bad. It would of course hit the Greeks the worst because money would flow out of Greece and into the eurozone, and nobody would want to touch the drachma. It would also further lower investor confidence in the euro, and it would make borrowing even more expensive for countries like Spain and Italy, which is why some people worry that a Greek exit could trigger a domino effect.
The consensus from the recent G8 Conference appears to be that Greece should stay in the eurozone... but how Europe's going to fix Greece's problems we don't know. The main trend is that the whole austerity policy championed by Merkel is facing increasing criticism, especially after Hollande became French president. The problem with moving away from austerity however would be that increased state investment would mean more borrowing and heightened debts.
At any rate, it's one hell of a complicated mess, i don't envy the politicians who have to try and resolve it.
Problem is, austerity is starting to look like a bad thing. The head of the IMF looked over Britain's finances recently, and said that although spending cuts over the last couple of years had been a good thing, we now needed a Plan B that placed less emphasis on cuts and more on growth to avoid being caught in an loop of cutting back, should another financial crisis emerge. Of course, George Osbourne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, tuned out what he didn't want to hear, and said that he was glad the Government's spending cuts had received full endorsement from the IMF and that they would continue.
At the moment, there needs to be more focus on growth, which has been sluggish ever since the 2008 crisis. Cutting back simply does not work when it harms your ability to bring in more revenue, but this is exactly what the pro-austerity policies are doing at the minute. The Greeks
might do better in the long run leaving the Euro, as they'll be free to set their own interest rates once again. Of course, the instability then caused in the rest of the Eurozone would cause all manner of panic. It really is difficult to say what should be done here.