Ultratwinkie said:
I made this post in response to someone who called my "consoles are dying" theory bullshit. He didn't respond. It even spawned a thread for a while. I think its still valid here. AAA games going the way of the dinosaur don't help, as AAA games are the only games that make a profit now.
Thanks for re-posting that, it made for a good read. It all makes a lot of sense, and I'm curious as to where the industry will go next. While AAA development will continue to rise, I hope they find a way to offset it. My guess would be that (hopefully) the next generation of console hardware is more similar to PC architecture (no 9 CPU Cell processor setup Sony). With a simpler and more unified architecture, you drop overall development costs on multi-platform titles. This would help you reach a larger audience with less money.
My next bet is on the increasing use of middleware (including cross over with the film industry) and procedural content creation. Just look at SpeedTree, they're behind a middleware technology that handles foliage creation. It's been used in Oblivion, Resistance: Fall of Man, Batman: Arkham Asylum, Fallout 3, Gears of War 2, Crackdown, Infamous, and even James Cameron's AVATAR. That save develops time and money from creating all of their own foliage art assets, and leaves it up to a dedicated group of guys who are really good at making digital trees. I could see middleware develops sprout up for procedural animation, real world vehicles, architecture, hair, clothing, guns, procedural voice, etc.
Middlware already exists for physics (Havok), limited procedural animation (Euphoria), and foliage (SpeedTree). Hopefully game engines will become more compartmentalized, allowing develops to select which assets and piece they need for a given project, pull them off the shelf and get down to content creation.
Still, I get the importance of AAA development. New tech would cause developers to spend more money to reach AAA status. Yeah, there isn't money to be made on A or AA games that much, unless they're a niche product. If all the games are $60, I'm going for the one with the best value (that one of the problems right there, we need more than just a $50-60 price point). This ends up becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. Only AAA titles make money, so we only make AAA titles, which cost more money, which lead to fewer releases, which leads to more competition in the AAA space, etc...
I can't help but wonder if they released solid fun to play games that didn't push graphical limits, if they could make more money with a lower price point. I'd love to see more examples like XBLA 'Castle Crashers', created with a handful of develops for little money. It was cheap, and a ton of fun, and sold relatively well. It's not like you can't play these games on consoles. Why haven't they made an HD version of 'Angry Birds' for XBLA and PSN? Give it leader boards, achievement/tropies, and some sort of mulitplayer (local/party/online), and I bet you'd have a financial success. The market for videogames is expanding, but the core demographic isn't growing that fast. You'r mom might be playing games now, but good money says she's more interested in Bejeweled than Gears of War (and if EA is to be believed, most definitely not Dead Space 2).
I understand that core AAA console games are costly, but it's a shame that the industry is so focused on these games. Not every AAA game need to be bumped/normal/specular mapped and vomiting bloom lighting into your face to be successful. AAA games are more than the next big shooter or GTA clone. I want more variety in my games industry, and we're not going to get it if everyone spends all of their money chasing the same golden ring of graphical photo realism. You can still watch cartoons on your 1080i 3D enabled 52' widescreen TV, not everything need to be James Cameron's Avatar. Not every car has to be the 2.6 second 0-60mph, $2 million dollar Bugatti Veyron, because people still want/need Dodge Caravans, Honda Civics, and Ford F-150s. I still enjoy my cartoons, I wish more developers and publishers felt the same.
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