Autistic Kid Picks Perfect NCAA Bracket

[Therumancer]

Hmmm, well I'd imagine someone picks a perfect bracket each year somewhere just by the numbers. I'm less impressed with this than many people I guess, I don't think he's the basketball "rain man" at this point, unless he can do so a lot more consistantly.

That said I'd also point out that in real casinos (where I worked) your specifically banned from playing if you have a natural advantage like an eidetic memory, ditto for people who make livings by sleight of hand and the like. There are lists of stage magicians, known photographic memories, and other types that are prohibited from gaming.

A real Savant wouldn't nearly bankrupt a casino, but he would have a good chance of being arrested, or at least the person who brought him in would. Makes for some nice movies scenes, but real life doesn't work that way.

Consider for a second that Nevada makes it's own state laws for gambling and things like this have so far been defended by precedent. Other casinos tend to be on Indian Reservations and thus nearly impossible to regulate.

A big part of the arguement is ironically that such things are "games of chance" cheating to adjust the odds in your favor (as a player) is illegal, as is having a natural abillity that changes the odds so it's not as random. The odds favoring the house (overwhelmingly) being what makes such businesses practical, and there is always the chance that a player will wind up on the winning side of any equasion which is why they come. Now yes, this is on a lot of levels complete BS (and I won't get into it, but many people can guess why) but that isn't the point.

Irrelevent, but given the Rain Man referances I thought I'd mention it. Chances are if this guy was a sports version of Rain Man, he's rapidly wind up being unable to play in a Sports Book, and anyone else found dealing with him could have their winnings invalidated should a connection ever be proven.

 

[Abedeus]

Who gives a shit that he's autistic? Why do writers feel the need to point these things out, they don't change anything :/

Yeah, you're right.
Who cares that a kid with a serious mental illness correctly picked the winning teams in March Madness with perfect accuracy over all the 'experts' and people who do this stuff for a living, and who do not have that mental handicap. That shouldn't make a difference, right?

Except that it makes it all the more incredible.
A person without that problem doing this would be pretty awesome.
But a kid with autism? How is that not extra awesome?

On topic: Good on him! The bracket he entered doesn't allow for him to win anything, which is a shame (He earned it), but it's incredibly awesome nonetheless. Maybe a sports company will cut him some slack and get him some type of prize anyways. That would be class act.

You do know that autistics and people with several different mental disabilities are unusually good at some things, like music, Math and so on?

Also, 3 millions of people, 1 to 13 million chance of making it right by picking randomly the teams with NO knowledge or sense at all... It means that what, it's a 1 in a 4 chance to happen?

Let me know when the kid does something that isn't just blind luck and a matter of chance.

Would you make the same article if it was a 95-year old grandpa who can't hear or has Alzheimer's? Of course, because it's good publicity.

...I hate singling out people for their luck...

 

[Aptspire]

Proof that Autism is actually the beginning of another step of evolution? idk

 

[Baby Tea]

Also, 3 millions of people, 1 to 13 million chance of making it right by picking randomly the teams with NO knowledge or sense at all... It means that what, it's a 1 in a 4 chance to happen?

Yeah! A 1 in 4 chance if everyone picked a completely different bracket.
But that's not going to happen, so the odds are actually much higher.

But you're right. Never mind that it would have been crazy awesome no matter who did it, and never mind that this kid is going to be held back by his illness for his entire life, as there is no cure, and will probably never again have the opportunity to have this kind of attention, but screw it, right?

Let's instead all be internet grumpy-pants who can't enjoy any lick of positive news.
That's a much better idea.

 

[ReverseEngineered]

How did the kid manage to guess correctly? The author answered his own question when he made the analogy to winning the lottery.

The odds of winning a state lottery are 1 in millions, but dozens of people every year win the lottery, and the odds confirm that we should expect that. There are hundreds of thousands of people making brackets and they've been doing it for decades -- somebody will eventually be that 1 in 13.6 million that guesses correctly (and the odds are actually far better than that, given that you can predict things like the historically worst team likely won't make it to the finals).

Unless the kid can show some sort of model he made that predicted the unexpected outcomes (several upsets, including Cornell going long), his claim of math and stats doesn't explain why he did better than the experts. As far as I'm concerned, he's just another guy with a lottery ticket, and his happens to be the winner.

Lastly, the bracket is never going to be perfectly predictable. From a player getting injured in a game, to a ref making or missing a call, to players getting sick or having an off day, there is far too much randomness to perfectly predict the outcome. Yes, you might get lucky, and with a good model you can improve the odds that you get lucky, but you'll never be able to guess correctly every time. Entropy and the butterfly principle dictate that we can never know everything, because even the smallest difference can affect the outcome of the game.

 

[ReverseEngineered]

But you're right. Never mind that it would have been crazy awesome no matter who did it, and never mind that this kid is going to be held back by his illness for his entire life, as there is no cure, and will probably never again have the opportunity to have this kind of attention, but screw it, right?

Should we really be celebrating people's luck? Sure, it makes for interesting news (nobody expects the unexpected), but it had nothing to do with anything he did, he just got lucky enough to be the one.

And should it be even more impressive because he has a disability? I actually know some disabled people who would take offense to that. People with autism, though they are challenged by their disability, are still quite capable. In fact, as others have pointed out, their disability can actually be a blessing in disguise, as it gives them a level of focus that people don't normally have. Just because he has a disability isn't a reason to hold him to a lower standard.

Let the kid have his 15 minutes of glory when he truly accomplishes something, just like the rest of us.

 

[Abedeus]

Also, 3 millions of people, 1 to 13 million chance of making it right by picking randomly the teams with NO knowledge or sense at all... It means that what, it's a 1 in a 4 chance to happen?

Yeah! A 1 in 4 chance if everyone picked a completely different bracket.
But that's not going to happen, so the odds are actually much higher.

But you're right. Never mind that it would have been crazy awesome no matter who did it, and never mind that this kid is going to be held back by his illness for his entire life, as there is no cure, and will probably never again have the opportunity to have this kind of attention, but screw it, right?

Let's instead all be internet grumpy-pants who can't enjoy any lick of positive news.
That's a much better idea.

What's there positive in a person somewhere on the other side of the world lucking out. Unless you spend 10 hours a day finding lottery winners and congratulating them and wanting to make interviews with them.

Face it - the probability of someone simply being lucky is a lot higher than someone "calculating it". It would've been much more impressive if the kid did something actually worthwhile.

It's like a situation where guy is yelling on the street "IT'S GOING TO RAIN, IT'S GOING TO RAIN!!!". If he's wrong, big deal, nobody will remember. If it rains... some people might care enough to care about it.

 

[SimuLord]

I love how the odds are defined as if every game was a toss-up. If you're using historical averaging, you know that especially in the first two rounds (and absent a topsy-turvy weird-ass tournament like this year's), the odds of, say, picking Kansas vs. Lehigh aren't the same as Northern Iowa vs. UNLV.

Then again, when you pick upsets, you lengthen your odds. I wonder what, based on historical averages, the odds are if you just picked the favorite to win every game? Last year was the first time we'd ever had an all-#1 Final Four, so...

 

[Xan Krieger]

Who gives a shit that he's autistic? Why do writers feel the need to point these things out, they don't change anything :/

Yeah, you're right.
Who cares that a kid with a serious mental illness correctly picked the winning teams in March Madness with perfect accuracy over all the 'experts' and people who do this stuff for a living, and who do not have that mental handicap. That shouldn't make a difference, right?

Except that it makes it all the more incredible.
A person without that problem doing this would be pretty awesome.
But a kid with autism? How is that not extra awesome?

On topic: Good on him! The bracket he entered doesn't allow for him to win anything, which is a shame (He earned it), but it's incredibly awesome nonetheless. Maybe a sports company will cut him some slack and get him some type of prize anyways. That would be class act.

This is where it got insulting. It's not a mental illness, it's a neurological disorder. The difference between the two is that mental illness makes autism sound like a bad thing, neurlogical disorder just means me and other autstic people are wired differently.

 

[ucciolord1]

That kid's a BAMF.
Nothing more can be said.
...Well, actually plenty more can be said, but I'm to lazy too type it out...

 

[Skinny Razor]

This story is missing an essential fact: the site where he entered his bracket allows for editing of said bracket after the tournament started.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Autistic-teen-still-has-a-perfect-bracket-after-?urn=ncaab,229799&cp=1#comments

 

[DarkLight523]

That's wicked awesome. The only trip up that could happen would be if in any one of those games, the coach decided to run a new strategy after realizing the current one was doing them no good.

 

[Plurralbles]

As a rule, the person least likely to get the bracket right wins.

 

[Cid Silverwing]

Who gives a shit that he's autistic? Why do writers feel the need to point these things out, they don't change anything :/

Don't be trolling the mentally disabled.

 

[CloggedDonkey]

damn, I don't think the smartest person at my school could have done anywhere near as good. so, let's give this young man a hand *begins to slow clap*.

 

[case_orange]

Autistic kids 4 the win.

Seriously. Didn't Mentats from Dune have a real-world basis in autistic kids? The idea that the amazing statistic abilities of Mentats -- hence there use as human computers -- have a real world basis in reality? Like Rain Man but instead of Wapner, like, self-done statistics.

Definitely Wapner. My old man got a 1600 GRE and I'm still jealous of the Rain-Man-types; so is he. They really are human computers. And come the singularity, they may be the norm....

 

[Pimppeter2]

Hey! I'm 16 and from Chicago, my bracket did decently!

Still, that's a nice story.

Talk to me when he has a perfect bracket in the championship game. ?

And this.

but seriously, Fucking Kansas.

Who cares that a kid with a serious mental illness correctly picked the winning teams in March Madness with perfect accuracy over all the 'experts' and people who do this stuff for a living, and who do not have that mental handicap. That shouldn't make a difference, right?

To be honest, regardless of the level of math skill the kid claims to have, I doubt that was the dominating factor. I'm not being "that guy", but its obvious that he got a bit lucky. Heck, some kids I know look at the team colors and pick randomly, and a couple of their brackets are kicking mines ass. Its nice and all, but I'm not convinced that this is more than a bit of Basketball IQ and a lot of luck. So basically everybody bracket, just a bit more accurate.

 

[SextusMaximus]

Some feat, completely useless if it's a one-off though.

Also, due to the amount of fans on this site - Valve will win march mayhem.