California no longer under lockdown - people freak out

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TheMysteriousGX

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I bet there's a video of someone wiping down pop with sanitizer they bought from the grocery store online somewhere. The pop is what's gonna kill you, not the covid. And sugar and heart disease have quite the relationship.



The same thing applies to driving a car, which is one reason I really like the comparison. Car crashes have 1% chance of killing + more long-term effects + it's something that can be caused by other people. If we applied the same restrictions and fear mongering to driving, we'd either be driving cars made of nerf or the speed limit would be like 20mph. If you're OK with driving around everyday, why are you so fearful of covid when it's far less dangerous?

Also, parents feeding their children sugar filled foods is much the same as spreading a virus. At least schools have nutrition standards but lots of kids are getting worse nutrition because they're not going to school.
Less than 40,000 people in the US died in car crashes in 2019. Covid 19 has been more than 10 times as lethal
 

Phoenixmgs

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Less than 40,000 people in the US died in car crashes in 2019. Covid 19 has been more than 10 times as lethal
Covid is only going to have basically a year. We have ~40,000 car crash deaths EVERY year. You have a 1% chance of dying from a car crash in your life. Covid has a 0.2% fatality rate.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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Covid is only going to have basically a year. We have ~40,000 car crash deaths EVERY year. You have a 1% chance of dying from a car crash in your life. Covid has a 0.2% fatality rate.
Damn, seems like a good reason to have TEMPORARY MEASURES to stop having 10 FUCKING YEARS OF CAR CRASHES IN A SINGLE YEAR

And your death rate is patently false. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
 

hanselthecaretaker

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The thing is, heart disease and cancer don't spread from person to person, and they don't mutate as they spread. If heart disease had a chance of spreading from person to person, and becoming more deadly and more difficult to treat as it did, you can damn well bet they'd institute similar policies.
They are spread person to person, just in a more voluntary, collective way via social norms and in some cases genetic predisposition. It’s also much slower, so we have more time to become less fearful.


Damn, seems like a good reason to have TEMPORARY MEASURES to stop having 10 FUCKING YEARS OF CAR CRASHES IN A SINGLE YEAR

And your death rate is patently false. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
Overall it’s higher, but only if including the highest age bracket and high risk groups. Even then it brings it up to about 2% and change average worldwide. Definitely wouldn’t want it being much worse than that though.
 
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Avnger

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Overall it’s higher, but only if including the highest age bracket and high risk groups.
Why are you removing the highest age bracket and high risk groups when considering covid numbers but not doing the same for the heart disease, cancer, and car crash numbers? Seems like a great way to purposely distort the data in favor of your personal beliefs while misleading everyone else...
 

Cheetodust

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Look guys, it's simple, if you compare covid to 10 years of fatal car crashes or take out the most at risk, because I mean the old and sick had their chance, fuck them, but don't take out the most at risk groups for other leading causes of death then you get a pretty clear picture. We should all lick our neighbours right on the eyeballs.
 

CriticalGaming

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Look guys, it's simple, if you compare covid to 10 years of fatal car crashes or take out the most at risk, because I mean the old and sick had their chance, fuck them, but don't take out the most at risk groups for other leading causes of death then you get a pretty clear picture. We should all lick our neighbours right on the eyeballs.
Boy i sure do miss eyeball licking. Those were good times.
 
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Elijin

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I love the car crash risk analogies.

Because we get to do this:
Driving a car comes with a set of risks. We evaluate and define those risk, then create safety measures to minimize them where possible and rules to govern the use of them.

To get behind the wheel of a car you must prove competence in it's operation and understanding of the rules which govern it's use. If you are later found to be lacking in competence or violating these, punishments will be forthcoming. Ranging from fines, imprisonment and removal of your right to operate a vehicle.

So I agree car analogy people, lets treat covid the way we treat cars; clearly defined safety rules and operating conditions, with penalties for violating them including fines and losing the right to participate with those following the rules.

Bonus round: You are liable for damages to others caused by your actions behind the wheel.
 

hanselthecaretaker

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Why are you removing the highest age bracket and high risk groups when considering covid numbers but not doing the same for the heart disease, cancer, and car crash numbers? Seems like a great way to purposely distort the data in favor of your personal beliefs while misleading everyone else...
A456750F-9E92-43F7-9182-22944658CA29.png

In their own chart from a link claiming COVID-19 is the leading cause of death it clearly shows total numbers of Heart Disease and Cancer (from the latest year data of a similar time frame was available) from nearly ever age group far exceed COVID-19 deaths. How’s that for misleading? That’s also from diseases that aren’t even *directly* communicable. I get the communicable nature of it incites greater concern, but they are ultimately basing it on what’s trending to draw those conclusions.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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Damn, seems like a good reason to have TEMPORARY MEASURES to stop having 10 FUCKING YEARS OF CAR CRASHES IN A SINGLE YEAR

And your death rate is patently false. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
I never said no to having temporary measures, I've said like a million times now to do what Japan has done. If you apply Japan's numbers to the population of the US, you'd be at under 15,000 deaths. Also, Japan has about double the elderly rate (65+) than the US and age is the most important contributing factor.

Taking measures to lower the death and being fearful of something are 2 different things. Are you fearful to go out driving to work or a bar or a friend's place? Driving has a 5x death rate than covid. Why should you be fearful of covid if you're not fearful of driving? Why should a parent say going to school is too dangerous due to covid for their daughter but they don't question letting them join cheerleading when that's more dangerous?

Where's it state the INFECTION fatality rate in that link? You do realize millions and millions and millions more people have been infected than the official case numbers, right? It's something like 30% of people that have had it never even got symptoms, you think they all got tested?


Look guys, it's simple, if you compare covid to 10 years of fatal car crashes or take out the most at risk, because I mean the old and sick had their chance, fuck them, but don't take out the most at risk groups for other leading causes of death then you get a pretty clear picture. We should all lick our neighbours right on the eyeballs.
I haven't done anything of the sort. You have a 1% chance (ever-so-slightly lower than that) of dying from a car crash in your lifetime. You have a 0.2% (everybody included) of dying from covid in your lifetime and that's assuming you get infected; thus, that number is even lower because not everyone will get infected with it. Right now, approximately half the US population has gotten infected.


I love the car crash risk analogies.

Because we get to do this:
Driving a car comes with a set of risks. We evaluate and define those risk, then create safety measures to minimize them where possible and rules to govern the use of them.

To get behind the wheel of a car you must prove competence in it's operation and understanding of the rules which govern it's use. If you are later found to be lacking in competence or violating these, punishments will be forthcoming. Ranging from fines, imprisonment and removal of your right to operate a vehicle.

So I agree car analogy people, lets treat covid the way we treat cars; clearly defined safety rules and operating conditions, with penalties for violating them including fines and losing the right to participate with those following the rules.

Bonus round: You are liable for damages to others caused by your actions behind the wheel.
I never said anything against restrictions. I state the numbers just showing how much fearmongering can get everyone so scared of something that is 5x less deadly than something they do everyday and don't even think about not doing. Parents not wanting their kids in school because covid is so dangerous let their daughters cheerlead without any thought when cheerleading is more dangerous. Cheerleading is actually quite disgusting if you look into because it's not officially a "sport" so the safety guidelines can be complete shit for the girls.

Again, it's not an argument that there shouldn't be guidelines and restrictions for covid, it's that you shouldn't be any more fearful of it than you are about driving to work. It's doesn't mean that I don't think guidelines should exist or that masking is stupid, it means I will do the logical and common sense means mitigate the virus but I'm not going to worry myself about it. I wear a seatbelt when driving and I'm glad cars have airbags, I'm not arguing that we should remove those things am I? Also, I would never ride a motorcycle because the risk is just too high and you have barely any protection. Restrictions that don't make any fucking sense like closing schools and closing out-door dining (in Cali) I will always be against.

Double-bonus round: Where do you think all the covid relief money comes from? Us.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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View attachment 2888

In their own chart from a link claiming COVID-19 is the leading cause of death it clearly shows total numbers of Heart Disease and Cancer (from the latest year data of a similar time frame was available) from nearly ever age group far exceed COVID-19 deaths. How’s that for misleading? That’s also from diseases that aren’t even *directly* communicable. I get the communicable nature of it incites greater concern, but they are ultimately basing it on what’s trending to draw those conclusions.
There's no restrictions on sugar intake even though it leads to heart disease and diabetes.

It's kind of odd that they added "unexpected" to sudden infant death syndrome. Is there sudden but expected infant death syndrome?
 

TheMysteriousGX

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I never said no to having temporary measures, I've said like a million times now to do what Japan has done. If you apply Japan's numbers to the population of the US, you'd be at under 15,000 deaths. Also, Japan has about double the elderly rate (65+) than the US and age is the most important contributing factor.

Taking measures to lower the death and being fearful of something are 2 different things. Are you fearful to go out driving to work or a bar or a friend's place? Driving has a 5x death rate than covid. Why should you be fearful of covid if you're not fearful of driving? Why should a parent say going to school is too dangerous due to covid for their daughter but they don't question letting them join cheerleading when that's more dangerous?
DRIVING DOES NOT CAUSE 400,000 DEATHS, KILLING 2% OF THE PEOPLE THAT DRIVE IN A YEAR.
CHEERLEADING DOES NOT KILL 1/50 OF IT'S PARTICIPANTS.

IF I LIVED IN JAPAN, I MIGHT FEEL DIFFERENTLY, BUT I LIVE IN A COUNTRY WHERE WEARING A MASK DURING A PANDEMIC IS A POLITICAL ISSUE.

School to the daughter *might* not be dangerous, depending on long-term side-effects, but it's dangerous for Daughter's Granddad, who does the baby sitting after school. It's dangerous for Daughter's Librarian, Daughter's Teacher, Daughter's Lunchlady, etc.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Why do you care? That kills olds, and you don't care about olds dying of covid
Seems like you didn't read what I said. If you apply Japan's numbers to the US population, there'd be less than 15,000 deaths all with no lockdowns or school closings. Also Japan has about double the elderly population as the US.
 

TheMysteriousGX

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Seems like you didn't read what I said. If you apply Japan's numbers to the US population, there'd be less than 15,000 deaths all with no lockdowns or school closings. Also Japan has about double the elderly population as the US.
Doesn't matter. Don't live in Japan. You should read the part of the previous post THAT I WROTE IN ALL CAPS
Even there, concerns are ongoing
They largely didn't have to quarantine because of travel bans, another thing we laughably half-assed
 
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hanselthecaretaker

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There's no restrictions on sugar intake even though it leads to heart disease and diabetes.

It's kind of odd that they added "unexpected" to sudden infant death syndrome. Is there sudden but expected infant death syndrome?
As a statistic, I suppose it could be expected.


Apparently the difference boils down to the examiner not being able to determine a definitive COD.

Gee, never really thought of the similarities cause of death and that FPS series share before.
 
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Silvanus

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The risk isn't high. If the risk was high, then why would we have adopted the "flatten the curve" strategy if all the experts thought the risk was high? That strategy doesn't alter the amount of infections, it alters WHEN you get infected.
Think about it. The mortality rate is lower with medical intervention. If the same number of people are infected over a broader timeframe, then the health service is less likely to be overwhelmed, and is going to be able to treat a larger number of people. Regardless of how virulent a virus is, it will have less lethality if the number of cases are spread out over a longer timeframe, even if they're not reduced.

In addition to this, delaying exposure-- even if exposure is not prevented-- raises the likelihood that when those people do become exposed, better treatments have been developed.

Think of it this way: say without lockdown, person A would have been exposed to the virus in July 2020, but with the lockdown, they become exposed to the same viral load in March 2021. They still get the same exposure. But a vaccine has been developed in that time; person A may have been vaccinated. And if they're not vaccinated, and become infected, they go to a hospital. Had they been infected in July 2020, without a lockdown, they'd go to a ward with 500 other people awaiting treatment. Even if the health service isn't technically overwhelmed, there's a delay in when they get seen. But in March 2021, those 500 people have been trickling in over the previous months. Doctors have been able to see them over a broader timeframe. Less delay in treatment; less mortality.

The only major problem with this virus is having the spread so fast that it overwhelms healthcare, that's the major issue, not people getting infected. If you're 24 and under, the risk of dying in a car crash is 36 times more likely than covid. For elders, they're twice as likely to die from covid than a car crash so, again, even there it's not anywhere near close to a death sentence. This, again, does not imply that I'm saying everyone go around willy nilly and not try to do mitigate the virus (as I say use the Japan strat as often as I can). But when you say the risk to life is high from the virus, then how the fuck is driving a car even a thing when you have a 1% chance of dying from a car crash in your life and the infection fatality rate of the virus is something like 0.2 - 0.3%? If the coronavirus is a high risk to life, what is the risk of life to driving when it's 3x-5x more deadly? Driving a car must be an existential threat to human life then if coronavirus is a high risk to life.
Driving a car is a high risk to life, relatively, yes. It causes an enormous number of deaths and hospitalisations. Why do you think we require people to go through months of lessons and official certification, as well as becoming insured, in order to be allowed to drive?

We've erected all the safety barriers that we reasonably can as a society. We cannot ban them outright, because social mobility would fall through the floor; society would be almost unable to function.

Society is perfectly able to function with a few months of lockdown, on the other hand.
 

Trunkage

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As a statistic, I suppose it could be expected.


It sounds like difference boils down to the examiner not being able to determine a definitive COD. Gee, never thought of those initials for anything besides that FPS series until now
Well, I’d say that expected would be if they had a condition that would likely lead to their demise.

Just guessing but unexpected might be if they had a condition (or no condition) that is not related to their death. Eg they might have anemia but the died of asphyxiation. And it would only be sudden if they didn’t have breathing problems earlier
 
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Phoenixmgs

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Doesn't matter. Don't live in Japan. You should read the part of the previous post THAT I WROTE IN ALL CAPS
Even there, concerns are ongoing
They largely didn't have to quarantine because of travel bans, another thing we laughably half-assed
My fault, I missed your post above because when I clicked on the notification it took me to your second quote.

I didn't say Japan was perfect, you can't have perfect, it's not possible. If the US had 15,000 deaths right now, that would be counted as basically an A+ job. Japan in one month had more suicides than total covid deaths in the WHOLE year. And Japan did that without lockdowns, they don't have some fancy test and trace program in place like South Korea, it's just basic common sense practices that any country can do at basically no cost and no already in place infrastructure. It's is quite sad that in the US we can't even wear masks or tell people to do stuff outside because it's safe there. The California ban of outdoor dining only forced people to gather more indoors than they would've, it's this asinine shit that I can't stand.


DRIVING DOES NOT CAUSE 400,000 DEATHS, KILLING 2% OF THE PEOPLE THAT DRIVE IN A YEAR.
CHEERLEADING DOES NOT KILL 1/50 OF IT'S PARTICIPANTS.

IF I LIVED IN JAPAN, I MIGHT FEEL DIFFERENTLY, BUT I LIVE IN A COUNTRY WHERE WEARING A MASK DURING A PANDEMIC IS A POLITICAL ISSUE.

School to the daughter *might* not be dangerous, depending on long-term side-effects, but it's dangerous for Daughter's Granddad, who does the baby sitting after school. It's dangerous for Daughter's Librarian, Daughter's Teacher, Daughter's Lunchlady, etc.
Assuming you live to say 75, there'll be 3 million car deaths over that time. Covid basically has the year and it's pretty much done and it might be at half a million. Covid isn't killing at a 2% rate (it's 0.2%). There's quite a few studies that have shown schools being open doesn't increase the spread of covid because kids don't really transmit it.
 
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