My friend on a computer sciences University course had a class visit from an ATi representative, he claimed it would be 2012. Whether that's true is debatable, but somewhat reliable.MR T3D said:well, 2014 (earliest logical estimate given kinnect's sales) is a ways away, by then I hope that devs manage to create games big and epic enough to be limited by DVD's, so yeah, they'll use something.
But I think it'll be HD-DVD, because that's almost propitiatory between them and toshiba, and using it would effectively eliminate pirates copying discs unless the physically make the HD-DVD-writer themselves/still have one from when that format was sold, which doesn't seem plausible.
I severely doubt it will be HD-DVD. It's a dead format that's no longer in production. It would cost too much to revive it for one platform.
The most logical theory is that it will indeed use blu-ray discs. It's in mass production, therefore cheap. It wont cost much for Microsoft to buy the licenses to use blu-ray for their next console. Let's face it, it's Microsoft.
Also to anyone theorising that it will purely be digital distribution, consider these factors.
There a lot of regions that lack decent internet connections, hell some without broadband. Imagine you're still on a 2Mb connection and you have to download a 12GB game. That will turn a large part of the market away.
Many games retailers would refuse to stock them as well as they wouldn't make a single penny from games, look at how things went with the PSPGo.
There's also still a lot of people uncomfortable with purchasing stuff over the internet.
It will never become a digital distribution monopoly.