Garak73 said:
The question is, how long will Blu-Ray last? I think the disc itself is in need of replacement. Alot of people are getting their movies via streaming and digital distribution is pretty big on PC's so outside of console gaming, discs are being used less and less.
Netflix has announced a price increase because more people are streaming than ever before. OnLive is pushing gaming into a streaming direction as well and there is no reason that can't work on consoles. The next console you buy may be a streaming box that hooks up to your TV.
I know that alot of people don't have broadband and many have bandwidth caps but that hasn't stopped Digital Distribution on the PC and it hasn't stopped streaming of movies. Eventually, the barrier of entry will become a broadband internet connection (unlimited or high cap) instead of an expensive console.
The question you are raising is the big question for MANY players in the entertainment industry. No one really knows. It's just speculation at this point.
Every year, streaming will become more mainstream. But I really do think it's going to be a while before it is widespread enough to render physical media obsolete. Bandwidth is a real issue, as well. Streaming 1080p everywhere and people downloading massively huge games all the time?
If we're talking about a small country like S. Korea or Japan where most of the population is bunched together in cities, it's relatively easy to push new technologies into the mainstream. On the other hand, getting widespread high bandwidth to the majority of the USA will take much longer.
I'm certain that the next console generation will still be primarily reliant on physical media for the games. I don't see any reason why Blu-ray wouldn't still be the primary distribution method for high definition gaming and videos.
Of course, I could totally be wrong. In fact, I hope I'm wrong. I hope there is a great technological breakthrough in the next few years that grants cheap widespread massive bandwidth to everyone.