Private Custard said:
Therumancer said:
Just wondering if you're familiar with that area of the planet?
They really were quite a long way away from China. So far in fact, that it's like blaming Iceland for a plane crash over the English Channel!
There was also enough fuel on board to fly another 3,000nm or so.
IF, as has been postulated here and all over the 'net, there was a structural failure around the satcom antenna which also caused loss of pressure, it's entirely possible the aircraft flew on for a while on automatics while the crew (and possibly everyone else aboard) was incapacitated. Much like Helios 522 did a few years ago. It bimbled along quite happily with the crew knocked out, until the hills around Grammatiko got in the way.
MarsAtlas said:
For China to have destroyed the airliner, the following would have needed to have happened:
1) China to have a military vessel with missile-carrying capabilities in the area
2) To have at least one missile aboard that vessel
3) To have at least one missile aboard that vessel that is capable of accurately hitting an airliner 20,000 feet in the air.
4) The technology to detected said airliner
5) To have detected the airliner with aforementioned technology
1-5) Pretty much every modern naval surface ship operated today has the capacity to do these.
MarsAtlas said:
6a) To not take the time to distinguish what type of aircraft it was or alternatively
6b) To not care which type of aircraft it was
6 a & b) Military ships use Primary Surveillance Radar. That is, the radar signal is reflected from the target and displayed directly as a "blip" on the operators screen. A search radar will give you range and bearing information, and that's it. A secondary mode, usually coupled with a second radar system operating on a narrower beam and on a different frequency, is required to get height information.
The most sophisticated systems can take a guess at the type of target being painted but this may or may not be a capability depending on the specific vessel. The main source of information regarding type is from the transponder. If it's not broadcasting then not all radars, even military ones, can tell you exactly what you are looking at. Forget what you've seen in movies too. Real radar display scopes are far more ambiguous, cluttered and confusing to look at than what you see on the silver screen.
MarsAtlas said:
7) To have the commander of whatever vessel to think its a good idea to fire upon said aircraft
8) To have said commander bypass the chain of command[footnote]because there's no way any commander in a military as competent as China's would be allowed to take this action without consulting higher up the chain first.
9) To have all of the crew aboard the ship to allow the commander to shoot down an unidentified, most likely civilian, aircraft,an act in direct defiance of the chain of command, which an action which obviously carries the potential of starting World War III
7 & 8) You have no idea what Rules of Engagement any nation issues to local commanders pertinent to specific situations. Quite conceivable that a local commander tasked with air defence of a "sensitive" site may not be operating under the "do not fire unless fired upon" RoE's that most peacetime forces operate under.
9) Sailor, soldiers and airmen are trained to follow orders. It's a fundamental part of their conditioning. What makes you think the officers (or even just the senior officers) would even have told the crew what they were shooting at? They identify a possible hostile, they issue the orders to the relevant systems officers, and a few seconds later there's a live missile in the air. Nobody stops to ask questions during that time. Especially in the Peoples Liberation Army Navy where the concept of considering the ethical consequences of following orders is not given the same high regard it is in Western forces.
Interestingly, it was a combination of 6 being technically difficult, and a commander operating under "special" RoE's that led to the
USS Vincennes shooting down an Iranian airliner in the 80's.
What we know:
Officially, the last contact with the aircraft was south of Vietnam. It's last reported heading was 040 degrees, taking it up the VN coast. Beyond that, it enters Chinese airspace if it stays on course. There are several Chinese air bases and naval bases on the general heading. Who knows what "interesting" stuff they have there? Enough so to get aggressive enough with a US Navy P3 Orion that was snooping around that their interceptor ended up colliding with it and forcing it down in China. Remember that?
Would the VN have intercepted a non-responding airliner? If it was several miles off their coast and showing no sign of crossing their territory? Not necessarily. If the transponder was off, it wouldn't show up on civilian radar. ATC uses Secondary Surveillance Radar. That is, the radar does not read a "return" from a signal reflected off the target object, but rather uses an "interrogate and respond" protocol where the transponder sends ID, airspeed, and altitude information determined by the on board instruments. VN air defence radar might have seen it, but unless they had been told specifically about a "lost contact" (which wasn't reported by anyone until AN HOUR after the last contact), then they would have simply seen what appeared to be an airliner, on an airliner route. Not a threat at all. Military Primary Surveillance Radar doesn't generally "look" for a transponder code. Not the type used by civvy aircraft anyway.
There is other precedent for shooting down airliners too, apart from the US Navy managing it. The Soviet Union shot down two Korean Airlines jets in the 70's/80's that had both wandered off track over sensitive areas.
There may be more likelihood of the Chinese having a hand in this than you might think.
However, there is another problem with the China theory. Why are so many resources being spent on searching the Malacca Straight? It's on the other side of the Malay Peninsula from where the aircraft was last reported, and in the opposite direction from where it should have been heading. I think it's more likely that it turned back after some sort of catastrophic failure, but something went wrong and it ended up in the oggin somewhere west of Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur would have been the go-to airport, as the crew would know their home base lost-comms procedures by heart.
I suspect that we are not being told everything, because someone, somewhere in either the Malaysian military or government has fucked up spectacularly and they are now trying to save face. The geopolitical rivalries and dynamics of that region are mind numbingly complex, and losing face is unacceptable. I reckon it flew through Malaysian air defences, who either didn't spot it, or didn't react to it. They may not even wish to release information that might demonstrate a hole or weakness in the network. We have no way of knowing what may or may not be fully operational, down for maintenance, or simply not properly manned.
