Human Extinction - How long can we survive?

[Malyc]

Human life will end... when the last human is dead. There can be no other answer.

 

[Yopaz]

My bet is a loss of natural resources. That seems like the most imminent problem right now.

Yup this is the most likely cause.

Take the resources of phosphor. Right now phosphorus resources are estimated somewhere in between 50 and 100 years. Nitrogen is also running towards depletion even though it's the major atom in air. If nothing changes life on earth will end in 100 years at best.
Not just human life, any life based on the use of DNA, RAN or ATP. I wish I didn't know this stuff...

 

[viranimus]

Well problems I see here is anything that will take greater than five thousand years to occur considering that humanity expanded its knowledge to go from using black powder to propel a tiny piece of lead at high velocity, to using propellants to launch a human beyond the confines of this planet at high velocity in roughly one thousand years. So if we can survive the next couple hundred years to the point that space travel becomes not only viable but pervasive then we really have little to fear of human extinction as humanity will expand and colonize. Sure its possible the earth wont be there, but humanity will essentially be in tact.

As for pandemics, its been repeatedly shown that no contagion kills at a 100% percentage. Humanity will persist. And while we may be a war like people, we also have a certain degree of logic when we realize were starting to get too good at it. Even for the most fervent there always comes a time when war is impractical.

Part of what made humans the dominant species is our adaptability and our survival instincts. Honestly short of the entire planet being eradicated to the point of inhabitibilty and thus the extinction of most if not all species on the planet, there are very few scenarios that would result in human extinction.

 

[Biodeamon]

I thought the forums could use a little gloom, so lets discuss when we believe the human race will become extinct(if at all). *Following is stolen from Wikipedia*

Severe forms of known or recorded disasters

Warfare, whether nuclear or biological, or conventional (although nuclear weapons and biological agents are likely to be used); see World War III.
Pandemic involving an antibiotic-resistant bacterium, antifungal-resistant fungus, prion, or antiviral-resistant virus. In practical terms this is unlikely as not all individuals and communities are likely to be exposed to a disease, and not all individuals die when exposed to infections.

Environmental collapses

Loss of a breathable atmosphere, for example due to an anoxic event.
Occurrence of a large-scale volcanism, possibly a supervolcano (250 million years ago, after the Permian-Triassic extinction event life on land took 30 million years to recover).[1]
Extreme ice age leading to prolonged global drought. An ice age can be a result of a nuclear winter or natural forces.
Loss of natural resources, such as mass deforestation or contamination of all fresh water.

Long-term habitat threats

Within a million years, the hypergiant Eta Carinae, which is 7500 light years from the Sun, may go hypernova.
In 1.4 million years Gliese 710 will be only 1.1 light years from Earth and might catastrophically perturb the Oort cloud, possibly resulting in a comet shower.
In about 3 billion years, our Milky Way galaxy is expected to collide with the Andromeda galaxy. Collisions of individual bodies will likely be scarce; however, the consequences for orbits of stars and planets are unclear, and impossible to predict for individual stellar systems.
In 5 billion years hence the Sun's stellar evolution will reach the red giant stage, in which it will expand and possibly engulf Earth. But before this happens it will already have changed Earth's climate and its radiated spectrum may alter in ways Earth-bound humans could not survive.
*Stolen from Wikipedia*

So, many options for ending human life, what do you feel is going to cause the demise of our race? Or do you believe we'll survive for eternity. Imagine, we survive the eventual destruction of Earth, by moving to another planet or moon, we survive the dangers of long term space travel, we witness the destruction of The Milky Way, and many other galaxies. Could we survive after the depletion of all hydrogen atoms from the universe?

I'll save my opinion till I read some others, but I personally believe we're in it for the long haul.

Most of these events won't wipe out all of the life on the planet. as there's some sort some of lifeform alive on the planet i'll be happy. cause then we be forerunners to the new dominant life forms.
the only thing that really worries me is the sun exploding.

 

[HardkorSB]

So, many options for ending human life, what do you feel is going to cause the demise of our race? Or do you believe we'll survive for eternity. Imagine, we survive the eventual destruction of Earth, by moving to another planet or moon, we survive the dangers of long term space travel, we witness the destruction of The Milky Way, and many other galaxies. Could we survive after the depletion of all hydrogen atoms from the universe?

I think that that it will be one of 2 options:

1. We will either survive long enough that we will evolve part our current state (meaning that we will no longer be homo sapiens).
2. We will genetically "improve" ourselves and/or replace our bodies with mechanical ones, taking care of aging and death, so even if traveling to different solar systems would take us centuries or even millenia, it wouldn't really matter (especially if we would become cyborgs as time would be perceived in a different way than it is now)

Either way, I don't think there will be anything that could wipe us out while we're still on Earth. There certainly won't be a nuclear war. You hear everyone fearing "someone dumb enough to do it" but you never see such person. That's because there isn't one. It's a no win scenario and the people who are capable of doing it won't because they're in good positions as things are right now and a war like this would change that.
If there was a thing that could end us all, suddenly everyone would become friends, just for the time to stop the crisis.

I think that within the next 2000-3000 years, we will finally start to colonize other planets Maybe sooner, depending on how large the population number will be at that point. I think that we're definitely capable of sustaining a population at least 100 times as big as it is now, given the amount of land that is either unused (by us, that is). With genetic engineering food is no longer a problem. Fuel might be but I'm almost certain that we have alternatives prepared already, just not in use yet because who would want a sudden economy change and power shift. It's better to keep clinging to the old ways for as long as possible. People don't like change too much. Changing the fuel source would probably require to replace or rebuild everything running on oil and that's a lot of work, time and money. We may have to change the entire structure of our society to do that. The people who are in charge right now are too old and too wealthy to care but the next generation - OUR generation will have to take care of it eventually and I think we will. And when we're done with it (or maybe when our kids are done with it), it will probably be a lot better than everything we have now.

But that's just me writing science fiction right now

 

[Strazdas]

As for evolving into another being, we have done that in the past, so this is definitely possible. after all, we dont call our ancestors we evolved from humans. we only call homo sapiens sapiens humans.

Gross evolution in humans is pretty much gone. Humans tens of thousands of years into the future will pretty much look the same as the modern day human.

No. human evolution still exist. it hasnt stopped anywhere. It is true that we slowed it down by making nature adopt to us and not the other way around.humans tens of thousands of years ago looked the same too. ten thousand years is extremely short time period.

Lack of drinkable water isn't going to be the cause of large scale wars between world powers (though, it might start them, the same way Franz Ferdinand getting shot was the spark for WW1).

In many areas, lack of drinkable water may be a concern, and start small wars, but the surface of the planet is covered with salt water, and it's not that hard to turn salt water into fresh water. If it was, a world war wouldn't be able to happen, as naval forces have to produce their own fresh water this way anyway.

the process is hard enough not to be worth doing on global scale. military doing it is one thing while mass production is another. infact, this method already produces too much salt for us.

Ah, well, "nuclear winter" is usually meant to mean during a full scale nuclear war, massive amounts of dust and debris is thrown into the atmosphere, obscuring the sun and causing temperatures to drop. This was put forward by Carl Sagan (and others) as part of his anti-nuclear stance.

The problem is, the model he used to get his results is rather unlike the real world. For example, it was a perfectyl featureless sphere, with no oceans or mountains. It also didn't have a day/night cycle caused by rotation, it was lit all over at all times by light at 1/3 daylight intensity.

If you just mean the successful use of all nuclear weapons, humanity would still survive...alot of people live in places that aren't worth targeting, and even those living in the dangerous regions have a chance of surviving, large numbers would survive. It'd be a very different world the day after, but the species would survive.

most imagine nuclear winter to something similar what the movie "the road" has shown. this would lead to extinction of human race over extended period of time, due to ecosystem being fucked up. the radioactive rains dont help either. yes there would be some people that initially would survive massive nuclear exchange. but the atmosphere would be too over-contaminated for long term survival. and then there is the fact that if at least 1/3 of nukes would explode at once its likely our planet get massive reshaping.

We clearly have the potential to survive anything the Universe could potentially throw at us. We've got plenty of ways to survive, but all we're missing is the will to do so. NASA is a shade of its former self and the other space programs aren't much more than orbital janitors at present, with most of what's keeping us from developing safe and clean sources of energy and solve our food problems being plain and simple greed.

Well the chineese is trying real hard on that part. so far they are successful.

You hear everyone fearing "someone dumb enough to do it" but you never see such person. That's because there isn't one. It's a no win scenario and the people who are capable of doing it won't because they're in good positions as things are right now and a war like this would change that.
If there was a thing that could end us all, suddenly everyone would become friends, just for the time to stop the crisis.

tell that to the people who died in japan a-bomb explosions. there is ALWAYS somone dumb enough to do it. it is up to us to make sure he doesnt.

. I think that we're definitely capable of sustaining a population at least 100 times as big as it is now, given the amount of land that is either unused (by us, that is).

you must be joking. our land cant sustain what we have now and thats only 7 billion people. land all over the world is getting worse due to over-usage. sure we can cut out all the forest and grow stuff there. short term solution causing long term problems.

But that's just me writing science fiction right now

what you write is a fantasy, because science fiction requires you to make it scientifically plausible.

 

[Ragnarok185]

give me a gun and Humanity won't survive 5 minutes from my wrath.

 

[Frankster]

I'd say humanity has another 200-300 years before things start going south and our history of wrecking the planet and screwing ourselves over catches up with us.

Unless our political systems and priorities are reexamined we will continue with the same old problems that will snowball until we reach the point of no return and by the time real disaster stares us in the face and politicans start thinking more long term rather then short term to please the masses it will be too little, too late. Cue whatever big disaster happens or maybe just ww3 or something.

The extinction of the human race will likely follow in what is sure to be a slow process due to changing ecological conditions and various natural disasters, most of the survivors gradually dieing off as the harshness of survival without civilization catches up with them.

Some pockets of humans might survive this extinction process somehow (assuming earth or just the place these pockets are located in are habitable to humans still) and it will fall on them to rebuild society. But more realistically I think the last human survivors will die a sad death, probably huddled together as they vainly try to conserve body heat in the ruins of what used to be a landmark or monument in that country.

 

[Sewora]

As for evolving into another being, we have done that in the past, so this is definitely possible. after all, we dont call our ancestors we evolved from humans. we only call homo sapiens sapiens humans.

Gross evolution in humans is pretty much gone. Humans tens of thousands of years into the future will pretty much look the same as the modern day human.

No. human evolution still exist. it hasnt stopped anywhere. It is true that we slowed it down by making nature adopt to us and not the other way around.humans tens of thousands of years ago looked the same too. ten thousand years is extremely short time period.

There's no more "australias", which means there's no isolated landmasses where evolution is necessary for a species to adapt and survive. Natural selection as we know it no longer applies to human beings, and never will in us as a whole species.
The only way to make it apply to us again is to strand an small portion of the population on an isolated planet or similar and have them adapt to that planet over a hundred thousand years without access to any of our modern technology that makes survival easier for us.

 

[talker]

there are hundreds of possibilities, so let me Quote Red Dwarf.

"he'd asked Holly to turn the ship around and head back to earth. maybe the human race was extinct, maybe they'd evolved into a race of super-beings. maybe they'd wiped one another out in some stupid war and the ants had taken over. but where else was there to go?
earth was home. he had to find out if it stil existed, even if it did take another three nillion years to get back. so he'd decided to go back into stasis. wat else was there to do? he certainly had no intention of hanging around with only a highly neurotic dead man for company."

ants, war, evolving further, the mayas being right, there are tons of possibiities.

 

[Fertro]

I reckon we have another few hundred years left before the shit hits the fan for the very last time. Will it be due to nuclear warfare? Possibly. I somehow doubt that any nation would be stupid enough to actually go through with it, simply because they'd put themselves at great risk. I suppose it could come down to Global Warming, but I somehow doubt something massive would happen anytime soon.

 

[Thaluikhain]

the process is hard enough not to be worth doing on global scale. military doing it is one thing while mass production is another. infact, this method already produces too much salt for us.

No, it isn't. You can do it much the same way that you recycle water, and the entire city of London does that.

most imagine nuclear winter to something similar what the movie "the road" has shown. this would lead to extinction of human race over extended period of time, due to ecosystem being fucked up. the radioactive rains dont help either. yes there would be some people that initially would survive massive nuclear exchange. but the atmosphere would be too over-contaminated for long term survival. and then there is the fact that if at least 1/3 of nukes would explode at once its likely our planet get massive reshaping.

Most people might think that, but it's not what the term means.

And, humanity would survive. Radioactivity is going to be a concern, yes, but it's not going to magically sterilise the planet or dwestroy the ecosystem.

And massively reshape the planet? Yes, a few big mountain ranges where people have built bunkers won't be there, an awful lot of buildings won't be standing, but that's nothing on a planetary scale.

 

[Vicarious Reality]

A, te wole entropy problem again


I wonder i any plants could survive a radiation burst tat blows o our entire atmospere

I think you need to check your post again. I have NO idea what you are talking about.

OT: I honestly have no idea how Humanity will go extinct. Perhaps we wont? Who knows.

A radiation burst, from a supernova or something? Or our own sun?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma-ray_burst#Rates_and_potential_effects_on_life_on_Earth

 

[SilentCom]

How long can other species survive? Better yet, how long can a species go before some kind of adaptation occurs?

 

[talker]

why? a room where you can do anything, why would that cause destruction? they're not real. much more likely is robot slaves who break there programming and fit themselves with jetpacks and miniguns.

 

[Talshere]

Unless we literally make the planet uninhabitable (like strip the atmosphere or melt the planets crust uninhabitable) in the next 100, possibly 200 years then technology will have advanced sufficiently that the human race will be basically impossible to extinguish. As it is now even all out full on nuclear extermination of the planet wouldn't wipe it clean of human life and technology and knowledge is so prevalent that even a handful of survivors could rebuild our race in a fraction of the time it took us first time round. You go from Mesopotamia to Modern in a few hundred years at most.