What will it likely be? Either San Francisco, Chicago or New York. Yet more ruined cityscapes and post-apocalyptic decay, with people still shambling around in rags and hobo gear, despite the fact that nearly two centuries have now passed since the nukes dropped.
What would I like to see? A Fallout game set in Louisiana. Fallout: New Orleans, or something like that. The setting has everything you would need to make a new Fallout game that has enough of the old games to be recognisable, but enough new stuff to actually feel original and fresh.
- the Jazz culture. You know all those jazz and swing tunes that give Fallout its atmosphere? Straight out of Louisiana. New Orleans isn't regarded as the Jazz capital of the world for no reason. Set the next Fallout game around New Orleans, and you've set it in the birthplace of America's defining musical genre.
- The history of racial tension. You know how Fallout has always played with ideas of American culture from the 40s and 50s? Well guess what, racial segregation was a huge part of Fifties culture. Black people still had to ride separate buses, go to separate schools, the whole shebang. If Bethesda wants Fallout to keep riffing on Fifties culture, then they're going to have to touch on this issue at some point. And the cities of Louisiana, which historically have always had predominantly black populations, provide a perfect context to actually explore that. Dilapidated segregation signs, crumbling bus-shelters for whites only, abandoned schools for white children...
- The swamplands. Fallout 3 and New Vegas have pretty thoroughly done the whole Apocalytic Desert thing now, and to keep rehashing it would only get old and stale. Louisiana, lying as it does on the Mississippi, is rife with swamplands and rivers, which would provide as drastic a change as you could imagine. Imagine having to venture from one town to the next, only to find you must contend with radioactive snakes, mutated alligators, and a whole host of other swamplife that have been affected by radiation and FEV. Even the trees and plantlife could be mutated into strange new forms, which would certainly make a change to yet more barren, lifeless wastelands.
- The clash of cultures. If there's one thing that defines American culture, it's that there is no singular form of it. American culture has always been borne out of the clash of other cultures, and Louisiana would allow developers to explore this in interesting ways. Cities like New Orleans became a home for hundreds of thousands of Africans who had been captured by slavers, and became a melting pot of exotic cultural ideas. Why else do you think New Orleans has such a rich history of Voodoo culture? Instead of rehashing the cultural idea of the Fifties Nuclear Family yet again, how about if the next Fallout explored some of the more exotic, surreal elements of American culture?
-Lastly, it takes place far away enough from the settings of the other games that you don't have to tie the events of the game's narrative with those of earlier games. If the next Fallout game takes place too close to Vegas or Washington, then sooner or later they're going to have to explain just what happened with the war between the NCR and Caesar's Legion, the Capital Wasteland, etc. With New Orleans, it's remote enough a setting that you can make occasional references to earlier games while still keeping the narrative separate and unique.
Not that any of this will happen, mind you. As far as Bethesda is concerned, Fallout is ruined cities and wasteland, so I expect the next game will be not all that dissimilar to Fallout 3, except that instead of Washington, the generic wasted cityscape will be named after some other big American city. Probably San Francisco...