ClifJayShafer said:
thenumberthirteen said:
ClifJayShafer said:
Say you study 20 people who drive. 10 of those always drive sober, the others drive drunk. 7 drunk drivers crash, but 3 sober drivers crash also. This is strong evidence that drunk driving can cause car crashes. Like the study you describe is evidence that cigarette smoking can causes cancer.
But there is a flaw in your theory. You just stated that out of the seven people who consumed alcohol, there is a strong evidence that drunk driving can cause car crashes. That would be a scientific fact if the three who were sober did not get into a crash. Therefore, you can not use this evidence to promote a faulty theory.
The only thing you can say is; 'With the consumption of alcohol, one can increase their chances of automobile accidents.'
Do you see how that is different then say, if you drink and drive, you will get into a car crash. Because what if one person did drink and drove home perfectly safe, committing no traffic violations. Now your theory has just been proven wrong.
And how about the other three? What conditions were they under when they were involved in their car crash? One could have had a seizure or heart-attack and lost control. The second could have been driving in poor wether conditions. The third could have been in an accident because of another party hitting them.
It is the same with cancer. Sure, cigarettes increase (not cause) cancer, but let us also see how you can get it. Genetics; most likely, if your past relatives were diagnosed with cancer, you can be diagnosed within the same age. Asbestos is the leading cause of lung cancer, and you can get that by being inside a building (wether it is were you live or work). Radiation along with fumes from metal working can cause this as cancer as well. After the atomic bomb hit Hiroshima, radiation (though small traces) was picked up by air currents and spread throughout the world, so we are all inhaling harmful material in our own atmosphere. So my point is, you can not solely blame cigarettes as the one true evil and cause of cancer.
The flaw is not in my theory, but in your analysis of it. No one is saying you can only get cancer from cigarettes; that's a straw man. Similarly there are other reasons for car crashes than drunk driving. Cancer can be caused by many things including the ingestion of carcinogens found in cigarettes. Cigarette smoking is ONE of the causes of cancer. Smoking causes cancer as does genetic predisposition, exposure to radiation, and toxic chemicals.
The "Increasing your chances" phrase is a meaningless distinction. Just as throwing yourself off a bridge increases your chances of dying from a great height. Smoking is not guaranteed to give you cancer, but then people have survived being shot in the head; a doctor still wouldn't recommend it.
I hope you realized that, even though you tried to argue your point and disprove my theory, you just proved me correct. So contrary to your first sentence, my theory is not flawed.
First rule of debate; do not be a hypocrite. You argued that my statement was wrong, and then rewrote my statement in the second paragraph, saying how you believe it.
So I'm right, smoking is not guaranteed to give you cancer. That is my argument. There is a difference between 'cause' and 'increase of chance'.
And if you were to have taken the time to read my earlier posts, I never stated that people believe only cigarettes cause cancer. I am actually the one (probably the only one on this site so far) that listed other possible means of getting cancer.
And no matter what your personal beliefs are about tobacco and cancer, there is no scientifically proven reports that state or show a link between the two, besides "With the increase of tobacco smoked by one person, there is an increase of chance that person is to become diagnosed with cancer". Now, smoking may cause respiratory problems, like COPD (mentioned earlier), but not cause cancer.
I don't know how long this thread is going to last before people understand the difference between cause and increase chance.
It is the same as your earlier post about intoxicated drivers. If alcohol causes car crashes, then why did the three sober drivers receive accidents. Please read my answer to that closely and you'll find, there are many among many factors that need to be looked at.
I do understand where you are coming from, and highly respect your opinion and view points. I would like to thank you for sharing your views with me so I may have a clearer understanding.