Next Xbox; If not blu-ray, Then what?

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Wicky_42

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Dys said:
The cost of a disk is near $30 to produce, flash drives are commercially sold for less than that. On top of that, a blu ray disc drive costs however much it costs, a USB (or similar) drive costs (probably) less than $10 to produce. There's also the issues associated with lost/damaged discs, faulty lasers (and hence expensive repairs) and so on (especially weak compared to digital distribution).

Honestly, I just don't see why any company without a vested interest in the technology would push blu ray.
No. http://www.amazon.co.uk/TDK-BD-R-50GB-Blu-ray-T78009/dp/B0018RIKQ0/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1305729293&sr=8-1
I can buy 4 50GB recordable blu-ray disks right now commercially for £12.35 - that's 0.06175p per GB, and those aren't even the stamped, un-recordable disks the industry would use which are going to be a fraction of that price.

USB Flash memory comes in at around £1 per GB, scaling pretty evenly up to 32GB then getting more expensive.

That's 16x as expensive if you were doing it from home, let alone the massive savings the industry will get on disks which won't be available in anything like the strength on flash memory.

One day though - one day cartridges will return!
 

Wicky_42

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Conza said:
Eri said:
I'm going to assume the next xbox won't have blu-ray..it probably won't...They're even trying to squeeze out a last drop of life with
the incoming May firmware update that gives a 15 percent-ish boost to disc space for their games.

If not blu, What are they planning on doing? Maybe trying to make their own new format just for the new console? Staying with DVDs even? Thoughts?
That's impossible, unless you're describing some sort of new format for save files on the hard drive, physically increasing the size of a compact disc is not possible by any means, let alone a mere firmware update, the only way to increase game space on a disc, is to do some sort of dual layering (eg. 4.7GB single layer DVD = 9.4GB dual layer DVD), which only fixes future discs, or to upgrade formats to Blu-Ray, which would be far too expensive - even if they released an external Blu-ray drive (like thier HD DVD from my understanding), people would be loathed to buy a new add-on just to be able to read certain types of games.
IIRC it's an update to make use of space on the disk that was previously reserved for some other function, rather than magicking up more space, adding more layers or some sort of peripheral.
 

gorfias

Unrealistic but happy
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100% DLC to proprietairy hard drive.

Add to that online streaming coop games.

I'll hate it.
 

googleback

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They could just develop a standalone disc format. and give the drive blu ray (possibly) and dvd functionality.

I personally think they're going to wait a little while until digital distribution is more used then just release a discless console. or at least one with a massive hard drive and a better online store.
 

Nate Corran

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Blu-ray. Though with the board of directors such strong competitors against Microsoft in so much, its gonna hike the price plenty
 

Dys

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Wicky_42 said:
Dys said:
The cost of a disk is near $30 to produce, flash drives are commercially sold for less than that. On top of that, a blu ray disc drive costs however much it costs, a USB (or similar) drive costs (probably) less than $10 to produce. There's also the issues associated with lost/damaged discs, faulty lasers (and hence expensive repairs) and so on (especially weak compared to digital distribution).

Honestly, I just don't see why any company without a vested interest in the technology would push blu ray.
No. http://www.amazon.co.uk/TDK-BD-R-50GB-Blu-ray-T78009/dp/B0018RIKQ0/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1305729293&sr=8-1
I can buy 4 50GB recordable blu-ray disks right now commercially for £12.35 - that's 0.06175p per GB, and those aren't even the stamped, un-recordable disks the industry would use which are going to be a fraction of that price.

USB Flash memory comes in at around £1 per GB, scaling pretty evenly up to 32GB then getting more expensive.

That's 16x as expensive if you were doing it from home, let alone the massive savings the industry will get on disks which won't be available in anything like the strength on flash memory.

One day though - one day cartridges will return!
My intial assumptions as to what a blu ray disc costs to produce were considerably higher than they actually are, even so the cost of flash memory is getting crazy cheap. Things like licensing (reportedly $8000 per film/game to have unlimited 'prints' of it, admittedly from a less than reliable source) drives the cost of using the medium up. Flash memory shouldn't be even remotely near £1 per GB, if they can manage to sellSD cards like this then I can't see the cost of production for other forms of flash memory to be especially high.

BloodSquirrel said:
Dys said:
And such an operation would, presumably, be more costly than a 24/7 flash memory producing studio. Plus licensing fees.
Looking around, I can't find flash memory going for under $1/GB. A "flash memory producing stuido" would be more along the lines of a fabrication plant, which are FAR more expensive than an optical media printing press.

Also, I'm talking about the same kind of reader that currently exists on cameras/laptops with a different pin configuration or something. That would be trivial to develop. USB is designed as a universal format for connecting arbitrary devices to a PC/console, not as an actual drive interface, which makes it less than ideal for your systems primary drive.
I don't see too many companys selling flash memory at less than a dollar per GB, but I also don't see any reason for distributer to sell for less than what the market is happy to pay (which is notably more). I know the whole story with NAND not dropping price as predicted and there not being a huge drop in production costs and all of the justification for why it's so expensive at the consumer level, but I just struggle to accept that such a new technology, that is (at least in my eyes) yet unproven to be cheaper. I see no reason why those few games that do not fit on a DVD disc to combine a DVD disc with game content stored on a portable hdd or some form of flash media.

Look, ultimately I could be completely wrong about the costs, but I'm still somewhat doubtful about blu ray discs being the most economically viable choice. There's still the competition from digital distribution and simply storing games on hard disc and, quite frankly, I wouldn't expect microsoft to adopt bluray if their next best alternative was posting individual lines of code.
 

BloodSquirrel

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Dys said:
I don't see too many companys selling flash memory at less than a dollar per GB, but I also don't see any reason for distributer to sell for less than what the market is happy to pay (which is notably more).
That only works in a monopoly, or in an oligopoly with price fixing behind the scenes. The flash market is pretty competitive right now, especially with the number of players trying to get in on the ground floor of the SSD market.

Dys said:
Look, ultimately I could be completely wrong about the costs, but I'm still somewhat doubtful about blu ray discs being the most economically viable choice. There's still the competition from digital distribution and simply storing games on hard disc and, quite frankly, I wouldn't expect microsoft to adopt bluray if their next best alternative was posting individual lines of code.
Even if MS can sell flash cards for ½ the price they?re currently going for, that?s still $16 for a 32 GB disc.

To put digital distribution into perspective- with current Canadian bandwidth caps, it is cheaper to transfer data by buying hard drives, writing the data, and mailing them across the country.

So far, blu-ray is by far the most economical solution that has been presented. The only other option I see is if MS can find some cheaper kind of ROM than flash lying around (since their cards only need to be written to once, something that flash can?t get away with).


Dys said:
Flash memory shouldn't be even remotely near £1 per GB, if they can manage to sellSD cards like this then I can't see the cost of production for other forms of flash memory to be especially high.
Huh? That's an 8 GB card for $13. That's almost $2 per GB. And it's on Ebay.
 

Nomanslander

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Dulcinea said:
There is no way Sony will let Microsoft use their technology.

Sony does own the rights to Blu-ray, right?
Not entirely, there's a lot of companies that have spares so....there you go.

=/

Oh and wouldn't it be funny if they just continue with what they're using now. I can see it now. Gears of War 4 will be on 4 disc, Red Dead Redemption 2 on 10, FF15 on 15, and LA Noir 2 on 20...lol
 

fgdfgdgd

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Dulcinea said:
There is no way Sony will let Microsoft use their technology.

Sony does own the rights to Blu-ray, right?
I do believe the one that made the first BDD was Toshiba and they supplied most of the parts for the PS3, so I doubt they're in the business of not making millions of dollars from Microsoft.

OT:More than likely Digital Distribution.

On a side note, Remember the format war? When everyone was bitching and saying that HD-DVD was going to win because it was cheaper? Yeah, that was fun.
 

Lopsided Weener

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willsham45 said:
Green ray...exactly the same as blue ray but green
And the disks look awesome. =D




Discs will probably stick around for a while, though I can see the appeal of much tighter controlled digital distribution to all consoles.
 

Macrobstar

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Zac Smith said:
Cathal Sixsixosix said:
Digital distribution
This, all games will be downloaded in HD quality and stored on a large HDD
I would not buy that, i prefer to have a physical copy of a game so I actually own it, download should always be an option but then so should physical media